First, the growth rate of consumption decreased steadily, and the contribution rate decreased slightly.
Since 20 1 1, China's consumption growth rate has declined for three consecutive years. In 20 13 years, China's consumption increased by 13. 1% in nominal terms, down by 1.2 percentage points over the previous year, and increased by 1 1.5% in real terms, down by 0.6 percentage points. 2014-1-in February, the nominal growth rate of China's consumer demand continued to decline, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. The growth rate of consumption has slowed down, and the corresponding contribution rate of final consumption has also declined. In 20 13 years, the final consumption expenditure contributed 50%, the total capital formation contributed 54.4%, and the net export of goods and services contributed -4.4%, of which the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth decreased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous year.
The contribution rate of consumption mainly reflects the pulling effect of consumer demand on economic growth. Consumer demand consists of government consumption and household consumption, and household consumption is the decisive factor for consumption to drive economic growth. There are both long-term and short-term factors that lead to the decline of consumption contribution rate.
From the long-term factors, first of all, consumer demand is a stable variable, which is influenced by residents' income, consumer psychology, population structure and other factors, and the degree and effect of government-led intervention are limited; Under the background of China's high savings rate, the effect of investment demand on economic growth is more obvious, and under the existing system, investment demand is more controllable. The government can guide the expansion of investment demand during the economic recession, so as to stimulate economic growth in the short term, and can also appropriately restrain investment demand during the overheating stage to prevent economic operation risks. After the international financial crisis, China's economy is under great downward pressure. The government will expand the scale of investment in a timely manner, maintain steady economic growth, increase the contribution rate of investment and decrease the contribution rate of consumption. Secondly, the growth rate of residents' income is directly related to the growth rate of consumer demand. For a long time, China's national income distribution has tilted towards the government and enterprises, and the per capita income of urban and rural residents has grown slowly. Except for a few years, the per capita income growth rate of urban residents has been lower than the GDP growth rate for a long time, and the per capita annual income of rural residents has also grown slowly. Third, the income structure is unreasonable and the income gap is widening. On the one hand, the marginal propensity to consume of high-income groups decreases due to the rapid accumulation of wealth; on the other hand, the low-income groups with extremely high marginal propensity to consume have no purchasing power, and their consumption needs cannot be met. At present, the proportion of the middle class in our society is still lower than that in developed countries, and the proportion of low-and middle-income people is higher in the population composition divided by income. Unreasonable income structure restricts the release of consumption potential. Finally, China is in the transition stage of economic and social system, the problem of structural unemployment is more prominent, the social security system needs to be improved, and the burden of housing, medical care and education for residents is increasing. These factors have a restraining effect on residents' current consumption.
From the short-term factors, first of all, the proportion of government consumption expenditure has been rising in previous years, which has contributed to the wind of extravagance and waste. After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government put forward "eight regulations" and other strict official consumption rules and regulations, which played a great role in curbing unreasonable consumption. Consumer demand for catering, gifts and celebrations declined, which slowed down the overall consumption growth. Secondly, in 20 13 years, the economy is in a downward phase, enterprises have difficulties in operating, employment and income are affected, and residents' consumption expectations are weak. Thirdly, the immediate withdrawal of policies to stimulate consumption is sometimes delayed, such as home appliances going to the countryside, cars going to the countryside, and home appliances trading in old ones to encourage information consumption to support new consumption patterns.