In the past year, the investment in China's automobile industry was huge. Where are these investments mainly concentrated?
When it comes to the factors that promote the development of China's automobile industry, the engine is one of the key factors. At present, a lot of investment is concentrated in this field. In recent years alone, China has rebuilt and established several new automobile engine production lines.
With the introduction of a large number of new flexible automobile production assembly lines, the development speed of automobile industry has obviously accelerated, and at the same time, it is showing new development trends such as paying more and more attention to product diversification, small batch production and market demand-oriented.
Recently, I was in Europe on business. During my visit to Europe, I visited the assembly workshops of seven machine tool factories. 90% of the machine tools being assembled in these workshops are sold to China, and 80% are ordered by China automobile manufacturers.
China automobile manufacturers began to export cars to Europe, and the pace of China automobile industry adapting to economic globalization seems to be much faster than that of similar industries in many other countries. What do you think is the reason?
The production and sales of automobiles have now developed to a global scale, which is an irreversible trend of the times. Global automobile production capacity is generally greater than market demand. At the same time, the automobile market puts forward higher requirements for the variety and performance of automobiles. At present, the key to the development of automobile industry lies in whether automobile production can meet the actual needs of a certain market in a certain region. If it is satisfied, it is possible to form a trade pattern in which foreign products are imported to China and domestic products are exported abroad. This is the personalized production of cars. In recent years, the automobile manufacturers in China pay more attention to the market demand than ever before, because we know that the world is developing in the direction of faster and more convenient information exchange, and we are facing an unprecedented historical opportunity to realize the internationalization of products.
At present, the newly introduced production lines of most domestic automobile manufacturers are relatively modern in order to meet the diversified needs of the market. In fact, this puts higher demands on manufacturers in China in terms of safety, quality and output.
Will the cooperation between China and overseas companies continue to develop?
The cooperation between China and overseas companies will certainly continue to develop. Good foreign products and technologies will come to China, and good domestic products will also go abroad. We will further strengthen and improve cooperation with overseas companies.
China develops the automobile industry on the principle of mutual learning and independent development. The purpose of enacting intellectual property law is to encourage inventions and protect the rights and interests of inventors. Intellectual property law represents the fundamental interests of people in all countries, and also represents the interests of people in China. This is the basis of our common development. We respect each other and protect our own interests in the process of cooperation.
When China automobile manufacturers cooperate with foreign countries, they will pay more attention to developing their own potential capabilities, and this kind of learning will not be limited to a certain processing technology. We should learn specific technologies and more advanced management ideas, so as to better demonstrate our abilities.
What is the fundamental driving force behind China's continuous adoption of new technologies?
The old technology is not necessarily not advanced and not applicable, and the new technology is not necessarily advanced and not applicable. The customer has the final decision on which technology to adopt. Therefore, automobile manufacturing enterprises must always choose and adopt appropriate production technology according to customer needs.
China's legislature encourages safer, cleaner and more energy-efficient cars. Our transportation development first encourages the development of public transportation, which requires us not to rely solely on a single fuel type or energy type. The key is how to use energy, comprehensively use energy and sustainably use energy. In fact, China is unique in this respect, and some other countries have studied it for a long time and made achievements.
What technology will prevail in China automobile industry in the next three years?
We should give priority to the development of new energy sources. Although gasoline and diesel are mature from the point of meeting market demand and legal requirements, we should pay more attention to their energy conservation and environmental protection and the development of various energy application technologies. The development of special configuration such as in-car entertainment system is determined by market demand.
What role will China Automotive Engineering Society play in the future development of China's automobile industry?
China Society of Automotive Engineering is an organization of scientific and technical personnel in the automotive industry, aiming at providing a platform for the exchange of scientific and technical personnel. The purpose of communication is to promote technological progress, automobile industry, communication between automobile industry and foreign countries, and communication between automobile industry and the world. So as to introduce foreign advanced technology to China and domestic good things to foreign countries.
China Journal website news: China auto market is the fastest growing market in the world. Experts believe that although China's automobile market was in a declining stage in 2004, compared with other markets in Europe, North America and overseas, China still has incomparable huge potential. At the same time, China automobile industry is also facing a huge development bottleneck.
China is moving towards an automobile society.
Experts pointed out that China's automobile industry has a great influence on the national economy. They believe that China's automobile industry is playing an increasingly important role in the national economy. The pulling effect on economic growth is also increasingly obvious. Up to now, the proportion of automobile industry in GDP has reached 1.5%. The driving effect of automobiles on other industries is very obvious.
According to industry statistics, every person employed in the automobile industry can lead to indirect employment in other industries 1 1 person. According to statistics, the automobile industry can play a leading role in 38 industries to varying degrees. At present, there are 22 cars per thousand people in China, and the world average is 122. However, the international social standard is that every 100 family has 20 cars. Therefore, in China's big cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, this standard has basically been reached. So "the automobile society is coming to China".
The China market is unstoppable.
According to the latest figures released by Ernst & Young Group, a multinational consulting company in the United States, in 2004, the sales volume of automobiles in China was 2.4 million, while in 1996, it was only 377,000. In eight years, it has increased by more than 2 million vehicles. According to the British "Economist" group's estimation, by 20 15, China's automobile market will triple to 6.9 million vehicles. By 20 10, China's automobile production will reach 9.4 million.
However, according to the figures provided by experts from the Department of Automotive Engineering of Tsinghua University, the number of cars with 1,000 people in China is 12. This level is the level of the United States 100 years ago. However, China is catching up. The output of automobiles will reach 6 million this year, ranking third in the world. By 2020, China will become a leading automobile producer.
Why is there such a big difference between the figures provided by China experts and foreign experts? This is because China has a special type of vehicles-agricultural vehicles, which are not included in automobile production. However, regardless of the statistical data, all experts believe that the demand for automobiles in China will become stronger and stronger, and the automobile market in China has only one development direction-growth. The Associated Press quoted M·cCALL, CEO of TNT, a Dutch-based multinational company, as saying: China's auto market is "unstoppable"!
Bottleneck problem of automobile development
So, who are the main car buyers in China? Experts at home and abroad agree that it is mainly the southeast coastal area of China, plus residents of several big cities in North China, Central China, Northeast China and Southwest China. In 2004, China's per capita GDP was $65,438+0,280. There are 24 cities with per capita GDP exceeding 3,000 US dollars, of which 2 1 are all in the Pearl River Delta. The GDP of Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou all exceeded 4000 dollars.
Although the automobile market in China has a bright future, experts are aware of the main constraints that hinder the development of the automobile industry: energy, environment, transportation, consumer credit and imperfect laws and regulations. These are the main problems that need to be solved in China's automobile development.
Experts agree that the lack of infrastructure in megacities, especially parking lots, has restricted the development of China automobile industry, especially car industry. Energy shortage is also a bottleneck problem that restricts the great development of automobile industry. Experts believe that at present, China may not be able to find alternative energy sources at once, and diesel or mixed fuel may be found. However, some people have been studying these issues specially, hoping to reduce the bottleneck restricting the development of China's automobile industry.
According to statistics, in 2000, China imported 700,000 tons of oil; In 2004, China imported more than 5 million tons of oil. It is estimated that by 2020, China's automobile industry will consume more than 25 million tons of oil. By then, China's domestic oil production will be far from enough for automobiles. If we don't develop alternative energy sources, China's automobile market will not be able to break through this bottleneck. (Source: China Business Times)
"With the rapid expansion of the automobile industry in China, people pay more and more attention to environmental protection, energy saving and other issues. The development of China's automobile industry is currently at a crossroads. " Recently, the two-day "Green Future-Challenges for the Sustainable Development of the Global and China Automobile Industry" came to a successful conclusion at the 6th China Automobile Industry Forum.
Government officials, industry researchers and major manufacturers of passenger cars and commercial vehicles such as Volkswagen and Iveco gathered together to discuss the sustainable development of China's automobile industry. As one of the most important contents of sustainable development, energy conservation and environmental protection have once again become the focus of attention.
The situation of energy conservation and environmental protection in automobile industry is not optimistic.
"Related research shows that in 2000, China's motor vehicle fuel consumption accounted for one-third of the total consumption in that year. 20 10 will reach 43%. It will reach 57% in 2020. Accordingly, the total emission of automobile pollutants is also rising rapidly. Major cities in China are seriously polluted by automobile exhaust. In big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, automobile emissions have become the first pollution source of major pollutants such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. " Chen Qingtai, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out the seriousness of the current energy-saving and environmental protection problems in the automobile industry.
In recent years, China's automobile industry has made great progress in energy conservation and environmental protection, and commercial vehicles began to implement the national three emission standards in July this year. However, compared with automobile powers such as Europe and America, there is still a big gap in the energy-saving and environmental protection projects of China's automobile industry, such as the lack of laws and regulations related to environmental protection, unclear definition of new energy sources such as battery fuel, and slow progress, which seriously restricts the sustainable development of China's automobile industry in the future.
Energy conservation and environmental protection call for "China characteristics"
"Simply copying foreign standards, Europe III changes to country III, and Europe IV changes to country IV, which is not in line with Scientific Outlook on Development." At the forum, the boss of a car company said humorously.
"The oil quality in China is very different from that in Europe and America, and the road driving situation is also very different, which makes us have different ideas from Europe and America when developing energy conservation and environmental protection, and we need to have China's own characteristics." An industry expert stressed to reporters. As a foreign commercial vehicle company, Iveco also agrees with this. "Iveco has always attached great importance to the localization of China, as well as in the field of energy conservation and environmental protection.
Take our joint venture in Hongyan, Chongqing as an example. For its upcoming PowerTech series of heavy trucks, we have not only imported IVECO's advanced Cursor9 engine and Stralis cab body, but more importantly, we have made some modifications according to the special needs of China market, such as combining the original domestic vehicle chassis platform to meet the national III emission requirements of China market. Lu Xin, director of enterprise development of Iveco, said.
It is reported that at present, the makers of relevant national laws and regulations and automobile manufacturers are increasingly aware of the importance of "China characteristics", and some automobile products that embody "China characteristics", such as methanol-powered vehicles, have been released one after another.
Car enterprise observation: energy saving and environmental protection have become a new competitive platform.
The "green wind" of the automobile industry has also become the vane of the business direction of various automobile enterprises. The rapid rise in oil prices in the middle of the year promoted the popularity of small-displacement vehicles. Many passenger car manufacturers who used to focus on large cars have also introduced their own small-displacement cars.
"As a commercial vehicle company, Iveco has always attached importance to its commitment to environmental protection. We have developed hybrids, fuel cells and electric vehicles in Europe. At present, among China government and consumers, more and more people are beginning to have a strong sense of environmental protection. This awareness also points out the direction for our future development in China. Iveco will introduce its advanced energy-saving and environmental protection technologies and concepts in Europe to achieve sustainable development. " Lu Xin, director of enterprise development of Iveco, said at the forum.
There are not a few car companies like Iveco that emphasize energy conservation and environmental protection. Energy conservation and environmental protection are becoming a new platform for major passenger car and commercial vehicle manufacturers to compete. Volkswagen also said recently that it will strive to achieve the goal of reducing emissions by 20% in China during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period.
It is reported that at present, new energy vehicles have become a hot spot sought after by enterprises. Changan established a new energy automobile company, and 22 hybrid vehicles successfully completed the Olympic service tasks; Geely has successfully developed new energy vehicles using methanol fuel cells; What's more worth mentioning is that with the technical strength of parent company Iveco, Nanjing Iveco recently developed a pure electric light passenger car, which can achieve real zero emission, and recently gave it to CCTV's "Environmental Protection Miles" column, and received good feedback.
It is believed that with the increasingly prominent status of energy conservation and environmental protection, it will also trigger a new round of "environmental war" among manufacturers.
automotive industry
Present situation and future:
At present, China's automobile industry is still in the transition period after China's entry into the World Trade Organization. The state protects the automobile industry by controlling tariffs and import quotas. However, the opportunities for China automobile manufacturers to obtain excess profits will be decreasing.
In recent years, China's automobile industry has made excessive profits under the protection of high tariffs and quota system. In a positive sense, it strengthens the self-accumulation and rolling development ability of automobile manufacturers and lays the foundation for future price reduction competition. On the negative side, first, it harms the interests of Chinese consumers; Second, multinational companies participating in joint ventures have gained greater benefits from the sales of parts and complete vehicles; Third, those car manufacturers without economic rationality can also make profits, and it is difficult to eliminate them, which aggravates the situation of scattered, chaotic and low resource allocation in the automobile industry. In fact, it is to protect backward enterprises and divide the market of large enterprises, so that the production capacity of large enterprises can not be fully exerted.
In 2006, China's import tariffs on complete vehicles and spare parts will be reduced to 25% and 10% respectively, and the situation that the automobile industry relies on high tariffs and quota protection will basically end. How to deal with the challenges before 2005 is a problem that every automobile manufacturing enterprise must face.
Challenge:
Challenges brought by the weakening of urban structure. People think that the development of big cities has come to an end, but when cars enter residents' families, they will see that the new development opportunity period of big cities has just begun.
Challenges from energy issues. With the acceleration of economic globalization, how to adjust the concept of oil safety and form an oil safety guarantee system and supply mechanism conducive to the long-term and stable development of China's economy and society is not only the basic condition of China's energy development strategy, but also an important topic for the development of automobile industry.
Challenge of global division of labor system in automobile industry. At present, the automobile craze mainly lies in vehicle assembly, and a country's automobile manufacturing ability will be more reflected in the production of parts.
Challenges brought by repeated construction. Since last year, the high growth of the automobile industry has provided a strong stimulus for the investment in the automobile industry, and there has been an automobile investment boom in many places. Under the condition of market economy, this is a normal reaction. What is abnormal is that under the existing system in China, part of the investment is made by local governments. In the imperfect market environment, we must distinguish between administrative duplication and market duplication.
Coping with:
Experts pointed out that liberalization or regulation will become a dilemma for the government in the future. China automobile is experiencing great changes from automobile industry to automobile industry and then to automobile society. The focus of the government's attention should be promoted from the automobile industry policy to the automobile social policy, which is the key to the sustainable development of the automobile industry.
After China's entry into WTO, China's automobile manufacturers will be beaten to pieces and unprepared. have
China automobile industry, which has a large number of employees and a history of 50 years, will face a crisis.
The important reason is that our technological progress is too slow. ?
Heavy topic
"After China's entry into the WTO, domestic automobile manufacturers will be beaten to death." In order to join the W.
Yes, Zhang Ke seems too pessimistic.
The president of Dongfeng Automobile Engineering Research Institute gave a very important reason: China automobile industry technology entered.
The rhythm is too slow.
Zhang Ke said: "This is a heavy topic that people generally talk about." At the annual meeting of the Association for Science and Technology, China Automobile
The only academician in the automobile industry, Guo Konghui, a professor at Jilin University, and Zhu Yanfeng, 40, the chairman of FAW Group.
And many people inside and outside the industry are adding their own notes to this topic in an uneasy tone.
The pace of technological development of China's automobile industry is like an old car, which makes Zhang Ke feel sad: "East wind!"
The design ability of the company's engine is not much different from that of 20 years ago. "And Zhu Yanfeng's evaluation is:"
At present, the development ability of China's automobile industry is weak, and the technological innovation ability is far from the international advanced level. "must
Pay the price China's automobile industry is about to pay a heavy price for its snail-like development speed.
It's hard to imagine, maybe only the parties can experience it personally.
Taking the 2.2-liter Toyota Camry as an example, Guo Konghui said that after China's accession to the WTO, the final tariff will drop to 25%, which is related to
At present, the price of this kind of car will drop from about 400,000 to about 280,000. Quality and price are the core of international competition.
"。 In addition, the greater impact is that foreign policy will change, local fairness, trade balance,
Requirements such as localization rate will no longer exist.
In the grim situation, Zhang Ke believes that we can only temporarily put down our national pride, the kind at home.
The idea of independent research and development and forming an independent brand is simply unrealistic.
Zhang Ke even made the worst plan: "Even if foreign companies flock, even domestic car companies will go bankrupt."
Well, isn't it up to China people to do technology? As long as China people are doing it, 30 years in the East and 30 years in the West,
Sooner or later, China people will have their own companies. Besides, after China's accession to the WTO, domestic enterprises will not collapse at once, and we
There is still a chance to work hard. "Zhu Yan, when discussing the reasons behind the huge gap, why are you slow to respond?
Feng said that in the past, people talked more about technology and neglected scientific and technological innovation, management technology and management system.
The role of.
Coincidently with Zhu Yanfeng, Zhang Ke also blamed the slow technological progress on the management problems of the automobile industry itself.
The disadvantages of state-owned enterprises lead to neglect of long-term technical work and lack of down-to-earth long-term technology.
Surgical accumulation. Business leaders only care about machines, factories and production lines, not about the digestion, absorption and design of technology.
The formation of ability. "
Jin Luzhong of China Science and Technology Promotion Research Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology also pointed out that for a long time, we only emphasized improvement.
The localization rate does not emphasize improving international competitiveness. In sharp contrast, China's shipbuilding industry started from scratch.
From the beginning, the localization rate was not emphasized. When the first ship was exported, the localization rate was less than 50%, and now it is only 70%
But its share in the international market has ranked third in the world.
In contrast, the automobile industry is disappointing. Although the localization rate of Santana and many other models is constantly improving.
Improve, but as Guo Konghui said: "Over the years, we have introduced and re-introduced, but we have not got rid of our dependence on foreign countries.
Situation, especially in the automobile manufacturing industry. "
According to reports, in the 10 years after Shanghai Volkswagen Santana was put into production, Germany Santana changed its model four times, among which
After two major changes, Santana in Shanghai is still the same. A Santana 200 didn't come out until after 1997.
0, but the change is not great, there is no qualitative leap, the modification is mainly German Volkswagen and Brazilian Volkswagen.
China only participated as a little brother. 1999 I went to Germany to buy Passat drawings for reconstruction.
Production. Passat has been put into production for several years, with ready-made drawings, making a net profit of $654.38 billion for China.
People can also find various explanations for the slow technological progress of China's automobile industry. For example, one
An old-timer in the automobile industry, after seeing the vitality of Geely Group, a private automobile enterprise, issued a heartfelt sigh:
"The reason why China's automobile industry didn't grow up for half a century is because of the line" Only I am allowed to do it, but you are not allowed to do it ".
Industry monopoly. "
A joint venture cannot grow old together.
"Foreign companies just want to make money, not cultivate competitors," Jin Luzhong said. "The road to joint venture,
Although exchanging market for technology has its positive side, the fundamental problem is that we can't cultivate our independent development.
Ability, it is impossible for our automobile industry to master the real advanced technology. "
Guo Konghui also said that China, as a joint venture, lacked technology and capital, which was a great capital in the past.
The market protected by tariffs will soon lose its original price because of China's accession to the World Trade Organization.
Value, such a joint venture partnership can not "grow old together"
Jin Luzhong is worried about the recent news about the joint venture of trucks. it is reported (that)
China truck industry is entering an unprecedented "love period" with the three major international truck companies.
"If the truck is also a joint venture, China's automobile industry will face the danger of total collapse." The researcher said.
The performance of neighboring South Korea has made China's auto industry ashamed. Zhang Ke said that South Korea's automobile industry is about 2.
It started in 1980s, almost 30 years later than China's automobile industry, but it has moved from import to consumption.
Then move towards the road of independent development. Koreans have long realized that it is impossible to develop independently through joint ventures.
, "the purpose of the joint venture is to eliminate the joint venture", so after the "wing hardening" began to "recover lost ground", through
The acquisition of foreign equity will turn the joint venture into a single national industry. Today's Korean automobile industry is facing
International competition is relatively calm.
Independent development is not mysterious.
However, Jin Luzhong believes that independent research and development of cars is not mysterious. For example, the rear modification of Jetta car.
Both China and Germany need development. At first, the Germans looked down on China people and said, "If you want to do it, do it."
Just try it. "As a result, China people developed it. When the Germans saw that it was really good, they recognized it and spent it.
Purchase intellectual property rights at RMB 90 million. Of course, the same thing happened to the dragon. Fukang car needs to be changed.
As a result, the foreign side developed and the Chinese side paid hundreds of millions of francs.
Although FAW got less money, the fact shows that we can't develop, Jin Luzhong said. He also
It is believed that although some experts point out that it costs 2 billion dollars to develop a car abroad, the domestic development cost is certain.
Much lower than abroad.
Some experts regard a new generation of cars, especially fuel cell cars, as China's automobile industry.
A rare last chance to reach the advanced level in the world. Guo Konghui believes that in terms of the technology of a new generation of cars, China and
The gap between foreign countries is relatively small, which is also an opportunity for China's automobile industry.
Can "Lang Lang Pei" work?
Facing the opportunity, Zhu Yanfeng suggested that the government should organize national projects and actively carry out the research on a new generation of automobiles.
Development work.
"In developed countries, it is worthwhile for the government to organize national projects and financially support the technological innovation of enterprises.
We learn from it. "Zhu Yanfeng said.
However, Zhang Ke disagreed. He compared the key projects organized by government departments to "Langlongpei".
A number of achievements and experts have been produced, but all the key projects are only demonstration cars, and there is no production capacity.
Force, which is an important reason for the slow technological progress of the automobile industry. "The root cause is the massive investment in automotive technology.
The enterprise itself should be responsible for the big return, but the key projects are not. In other words, solving key projects
There is no problem with molding technology, such as the fuel cell recently jointly launched by Dongfeng Company and two research institutes of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Demonstration car, I don't know which unit it belongs to.
In addition, Zhang Ke also pointed out that high technology is produced on the basis of traditional technology, and we can't underestimate high technology.
The difficulty of the operation. In the new generation of automobile technology, there is a big gap between China and foreign countries. The aforementioned fuel
The battery demonstration car is still relatively primitive. (. E20 1W03066。 )
In the past 30 years, China automobile industry has experienced explosive growth from 654.38+10,000 vehicles to nearly10,000 vehicles.
Although the Red Flag car that started in 1950s brought joy to China people's independent automobile industry, the automobile industry from 1950 to 1980 mostly stayed in the stage of simple imitation and reproduction because of the weak basic industries and lack of talents.
After 30 years of reform and opening up, it has entered a new era, and the automobile industry has also begun to usher in a new round of development opportunities. The joint venture started by Shanghai Volkswagen in 1984 has become an important watershed in the development of China's automobile industry. The reform and opening up ended the long-standing debate on "importing or buying models" and opened the curtain of the joint venture era. The typical feature of the introduction stage of joint ventures is "takenism". The joint venture with Shanghai Volkswagen as the specimen has laid a solid foundation for the technology introduction, absorption and personnel training of China automobile and China automobile industry. The joint venture construction of "technology for market" has greatly shortened the pace of China's integration with the world.
However, due to the policy restrictions and technical barriers of multinational companies, the development of China's automobile industry is slow, and therefore, China people's dream of building cars is even stronger. However, without technical background and talent team, introducing, digesting and absorbing foreign products and technologies has become a typical feature of imitation innovation stage.
After 50 years' accumulation and 10 years' joint venture, with the continuous enrichment of experience and the intensification of market competition, a number of self-developed automobile brands have emerged in China's automobile industry since the late 1990s. At the end of 1990s, Brilliance Auto, Geely Automobile and Chery Automobile began to make a hard start. After entering the 2 1 century, vehicle research and development and mastering the technology of core components have become important features in the stage of independent innovation. Since 2003, the blowout of the automobile market has become a catalyst for the collective arrogance of independent brands. Independent brands headed by Chery Automobile, including Geely Automobile, Brilliance Automobile and New BYD Automobile, have formed their own R&D capabilities and R&D systems in a short time, and established the most basic manufacturing, technology R&D and sales service systems.
The reform and opening up has stirred the people of China for 30 years, and the automobile industry has also experienced 30 years of accelerated running. Of course, there are fruitful results, but there are also a lot of problems left. Independent brands pursue speed too much and ignore infrastructure construction, which leads to the superficial prosperity of national automobile industry; The sequela of the joint venture process began to break out after the market changed technology. The sharp increase in the number of cars has made the contradiction between people, cars and the environment increasingly prominent, and the premature expansion of the automobile society has also exposed many disadvantages in advance.
The current downturn in the global automobile industry provides us with more opportunities to think: how to make our cars and human beings exist more harmoniously? How can our national automobile industry achieve responsible growth? What kind of automobile market does our automobile society need?
Thirty years is too fast, so China automobile industry needs to examine these gains and losses calmly.