Observations

Tuesday, the three major stock indexes in the early morning shock fall, the afternoon collective rally. The two markets combined turnover of 916.4 billion yuan; northward funds net buying amount of 9.137 billion yuan. Plate observation: catering and tourism, brewing, transportation services and other sectors rose; while real estate, construction building materials, chemical and other sectors fell. As of the close: the Shanghai index rose 1.46%, at 3213.33 points; SZCI rose 2.05%, at 11756.38 points; GEM index rose 2.5%, at 2523.69 points.

Market outlook

First, let's talk about the "policy bottom". Yesterday we mentioned: Financial Committee meeting emphasized "to maintain the stable operation of the capital market", the National People's Congress continued to emphasize "to maintain the stability of the capital market" and asked "to prevent and correct the introduction of policies that are not conducive to the market's expectations "; and just after yesterday's session, the Securities and Futures Commission, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the National Federation of Industry and Commerce and other three departments issued a "notice on further support for the healthy development of listed companies" to encourage institutions to increase investment in the capital market, in fact, a lot of notice, the main purpose of the summary is to "stabilize business confidence, stabilize investor confidence, stabilize the policy expectations ". To sum up, the decision-making level to stabilize the confidence of the capital market determination is still very clear; so "policy bottom has appeared"!

Then talk about the "market bottom". In fact, we have always emphasized: "market bottom" is unpredictable, but it is always accompanied by "emotional bottom" appears, the bottom is often in the market mood is extremely pessimistic when quietly come. Recently, the market is really quite a lot of discordant news: yesterday's index hit a new low adjustment, a number of new shares listed bankruptcy and even a plunge, the domestic local epidemic repeated impact on economic recovery, global geopolitical conflict uncertainty to strengthen the U.S. and China's interest rate differentials inverted so that the inflow of foreign capital slowed down and so on, leading to increased investor panic. But at the same time: although the epidemic exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy, but also increased the subsequent monetary, credit easing space and power, combined with the latest economic data released, the market on the cut or even cut interest rates are expected to raise again; and the last time the U.S. and China interest rate inverted (the end of 2009 to the middle of 10 years), although the Shanghai index fell by 20% or so, but at that time it was a round of a large level of the market after the market, and the current market has been adjusted for four months! The market has been adjusting for four months now, so it's not a simple comparison to make.

Also worth noting a few news: First, the global stock market continues to be shaken, but the latest disclosure of documents show that the international capital management giants have not slowed down the pace of investment in China's assets; the second is the Hong Kong official said "the Hong Kong SAR Government will work with the mainland regulatory authorities and regulators on the" Hong Kong Stock Connect Secondly, Hong Kong officials said that "the Hong Kong SAR government will consult with the mainland regulatory authorities and supervisory bodies on the issue of RMB quotes for stock transactions", which is conducive to the internationalization of the RMB and implies the further integration of Hong Kong's financial market with the mainland. Supporting the expectations of the consumer recovery to enhance.

Operating strategy

The above news, although it brought today's catering and tourism, brewing, transportation services, brokerage, media and entertainment sectors significantly higher, but do not recommend aggressive chasing the high; recent suppression of the market mood of the negative factor still exists, short-term fluctuations are still present, but the medium- and long-term perspective of the opportunity is greater than the risk, we are more willing to emphasize that the " Bottom area" rather than "market bottom has appeared", the main opportunity lies in the previous excessive pessimistic expectations after the valuation repair.

Guangdao Securities Chief Investment Advisor Zhao Yurui, license number: S0260614060014