In 2023, due to the short cycle from New Year's Day to Spring Festival, the time left for centralized slaughter at the breeding end was limited. Due to the decline of consumption inertia after New Year's Day, the sentiment of slaughter at the breeding end warmed up, and the price of pigs continued to fall. However, due to the favorable holiday consumption, the operating rate of domestic mainstream slaughter enterprises continues to rise. After the off-year, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises approached a high of 48%, and the price of pigs also hit a new low. Due to the end of breeding, slaughterhouses have successively had shutdown holidays.

According to industry insiders, the domestic pig market has been in a state of chaos recently. With the official announcement that slaughterhouses are advised to increase the commercial inventory of frozen pork, the bullish sentiment in the market is gradually heating up. However, some large pig enterprises have successively completed the year-end slaughter plan, and the number of imported pigs has gradually decreased. Some slaughterhouses instruct their slaughterhouses to put in pig sources, which also makes it more difficult to collect pigs smoothly, and the price of pigs has soared. Recently, the market has shown a trend of three consecutive rises, but

According to institutional data, the average price of live pigs in China is currently maintained at 15. 19 yuan/kg, which is 0. 1 1 yuan/kg higher than the previous day, and the increase in pig prices has been weakened. In some parts of northern China, the price of pigs has a downward trend. With the increase in the shutdown of slaughter enterprises, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises has dropped significantly.

Now, the Spring Festival is coming. Years ago, the general trend of pig prices has been set, and the market may show a weak fluctuation trend. The increase of pig price will gradually weaken, and the market will gradually enter the stage of sideways adjustment. Due to the gradual stagnation of the transfer of live pigs, the market will also enter the stage of "valuable without market". Some slaughter enterprises may offer strong prices for the convenience of high-priced IOUs, but the room for growth may be limited!

For the market trend after the year, personally, due to the concentration of pig production capacity before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure of pigs will be significantly weakened after the year. However, due to the bleak consumer market after the holiday, the expected deviation of residents' demand, students have not yet returned to school, and the demand for catering is general, and the downward trend of pig price inertia will be obvious!

According to official data, after April 2022, the domestic sow stock scale stopped falling and rebounded. 1 1 At the end of the period, the stock of sows reached 43.88 million, accounting for about 7% of the abnormal stock. According to the stock of sows, the scale of pig slaughter after 10 has been affected. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the pressure of domestic pig supply is weakened, and the market is suitable for pig sources.

However, due to the continuous decline in the price of live pigs in the fourth quarter of last year, the pressure of loss at the breeding end has increased sharply, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement the stalls has weakened, and the price of piglets has dropped, which may limit the scale of live pigs after 5.5 months! However, due to the improvement of the profit level of slaughter enterprises before the holiday, the bargain-hunting mood of slaughter enterprises has not diminished after the year, and the price of live pigs hovers between 14- 15 yuan/kg. Slaughtering enterprises are highly motivated to cut into purchasing and storage, and the formal plan for pork purchasing and storage will be launched after the year. It is expected that the market will still rebound after the year!

Personally, in February, due to the phenomenon of students returning to school, the catering industry gradually recovered, overlapping, pork storage and slaughtering enterprises, secondary fattening and so on. The price of pigs may fluctuate violently. However, due to the gradual easing of the supply level of live pigs and the relatively limited increase in demand, the pig price will still fluctuate within a narrow range in February and March, and the pressure of loss at the breeding end still exists. As we enter April,

The Spring Festival is approaching, and the price of pigs is "skyrocketing". What happened? Be wary of the inertia of pig prices after the year! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, and the pictures are from the Internet! #2023 Let's celebrate the New Year together #