Keywords: financial crisis, expanding domestic demand, auto industry and real estate industry are picking up.
First, the impact of the financial crisis on China's economy.
Since the second half of 2007, the global financial crisis triggered by the American subprime mortgage crisis has had a far-reaching impact on the global economy. As an indispensable part of the world economy, China's economy has also been impacted to some extent.
First, the domestic stock market was hit. China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated downward after reaching the highest point of 6 100 in June 2007, and finally hovered around 2400 at the lowest point of 1600. Although the central bank has successively introduced loose monetary policies such as lowering deposit and loan interest rates, the stock market has not improved much. Second, the weak dollar has caused intangible losses of foreign exchange reserves. By the end of 2008, China's total foreign exchange reserves had reached US$ 654.38+94.6 billion, of which US bonds accounted for more than half. Undoubtedly, the depreciation of the US dollar has caused huge losses to China's foreign exchange reserves. Third, exports have declined. Affected by shrinking external demand, rising trade protectionism, appreciation of RMB and other factors, since the second half of 2008, the export of China's labor-intensive industries such as textiles, clothing, shoes and hats has dropped significantly, and many small enterprises with poor structure have closed down. Fourth, GDP growth slowed down. As one of the "Troika" driving China's economic growth, export plays a very important role in China's economic development, and the blocked export has seriously affected the GDP growth. According to statistics, the GDP growth rate of China in 2007 was 13%, and the contribution of exports to GDP growth was 3 percentage points. However, in 2008, China's GDP growth rate was only 9%, and the contribution of exports to GDP growth was only 0.8 percentage points. Fifth, the impact on employment in China. The decrease of foreign demand and the economic recession of enterprises have led to the loss of many jobs and the increase of unemployment rate. In terms of the labor market, the demand for employment in the fourth quarter of 2008 decreased by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year, the ratio of the number of employers recruiting through the labor market to the number of job seekers entering the labor market dropped to a low level of 0.85, and the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns also increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. Sixth, the adjustment of the real estate market. The slowdown of world economic growth has led to the contraction of external demand in China, the decline of enterprise benefits, and the decline of investment willingness and ability. The downward pressure on economic growth has increased, the wealth of the stock market has shrunk, and the confidence index of entrepreneurs in the real estate industry has dropped sharply, which has also prompted the real estate market to continue to adjust.
Second, the government of China issued a response policy.
In the face of the financial crisis, the China Municipal Government decisively issued corresponding policies to promote economic growth and reduce the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy of China. The following are the main policies:
(1)4 trillion investment stimulates domestic demand. China's rapid economic growth depends largely on exports. The financial tsunami led to a sharp decline in external demand, and the rise of international trade protectionism led to a serious setback for China's exports. Faced with this situation, if China wants to maintain its original economic growth rate, it must make use of domestic demand. The population of China is1300 million, accounting for15 of the world population. Moreover, China people don't advocate consumption in advance as Americans do. Every family has a certain amount of savings, so there is great consumption potential to be tapped. The national policy of stimulating domestic demand is to develop domestic consumption potential to tide over this difficulty. Because government investment and government consumption have been very strong, while residents' consumption is insufficient, and the social security and service system is relatively weak, this 4 trillion yuan can only play its greatest role if it is invested in education, medical care, unemployment security, housing security and infrastructure construction. The following are the key investments and budgets of this 4 trillion investment: 400 billion yuan for affordable housing such as low-rent housing and shantytown renovation, 370 billion yuan for livelihood projects and infrastructure such as rural water circuits and gas houses, 654.38+05 billion yuan for major infrastructure construction such as railways, highways, airports and water conservancy and urban power grid renovation, and 654.38+05 billion yuan for social undertakings such as medical care, education and culture, and energy conservation and emission reduction and ecological projects. As can be seen from the above investment ratio, the state has invested heavily in infrastructure construction, post-disaster reconstruction, people's livelihood projects and housing security.
(2) Ten major industrial adjustment and revitalization plans. The state has formulated a plan to revitalize ten major industries, including automobile industry, steel industry, textile industry, shipbuilding industry, equipment manufacturing industry, electronic information industry, light industry, petrochemical industry, non-ferrous metal industry and logistics industry. The planning of the automobile industry was introduced for the first time, focusing on five aspects: First, it is necessary to cultivate the automobile consumption market. From October 20th, 2009/kloc-0 to February 3rd, 20091day, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 5% for passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less. From March 1 to February 3 1 in 2009, the state allocated 5 billion yuan. Increase the subsidy funds for scrapping and updating old cars, and clean up the unreasonable regulations for canceling the purchase restriction of cars. Second, we must promote the structural adjustment of the automobile industry. Support the merger and reorganization of large automobile enterprise groups, and support the key enterprises of automobile parts to expand their scale through merger and reorganization. Third, we must support independent innovation and technological transformation of enterprises. In the next three years, the central government will allocate 654.38+000 billion yuan of special funds, focusing on supporting technological innovation and transformation of enterprises and the development of new energy vehicles and parts. Fourth, implement the strategy of new energy vehicles and promote the industrialization of electric vehicles and their key components. The central government arranges subsidy funds to support the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in large and medium-sized cities. Fifth, support automobile manufacturers to develop their own brands, speed up the construction of export bases for automobiles and spare parts, develop modern automobile service industry and improve automobile consumption credit. Among these five measures, the first one has the greatest impact on consumers and enterprises. "Exempting" the purchase tax on small-displacement vehicles not only benefits consumers (buying a car with a price of100,000 yuan can save about 8,500 yuan), but also increases the demand for automobiles with the rising confidence of consumers, thus making automobile enterprises see hope.
Although the real estate industry has not been listed in the top ten revitalization industries, it has played an indispensable role in stimulating domestic demand and increasing national fiscal revenue (according to relevant calculations, every reduction of 6,543,800 square meters of buildings in the real estate industry will affect the employment of 300,000 people, reduce the demand for steel products by 20,000 tons, reduce the demand for doors and windows by 80,000 sets, and reduce the demand for sanitary ware by about 20,000 sets). The real estate industry accounts for about 1/4 of China's fixed assets investment, and more than 50 industries are involved in the upstream and downstream. In 2008, the state adjusted the real estate tax policy three times. First, in March 2008, the tax related to the construction and operation of low-rent housing and affordable housing, as well as the tax related to housing leasing, was reduced or exempted. Secondly, in June 2008, from +0 1, the deed tax rate of individuals purchasing ordinary houses below 90 square meters for the first time was reduced to 1%, and stamp duty and land value-added tax were exempted; The third is document the State Council 1997. 13 1 issued in June 2008 stipulates that the business tax on housing transfer is temporarily reduced for one year. And encourage local governments to introduce greater measures to save the market. Local governments also responded positively. In April 2009, the Nanjing government issued 40,000 * * * 2.4 trillion yuan shopping vouchers. It is estimated that purchase vouchers can boost the sales of commercial housing by about 4 billion yuan. The revitalization of real estate will directly stimulate the demand of steel, cement and other industries, thus providing a large number of jobs. At the same time, the healthy growth of the real estate industry has also made great contributions to the national fiscal revenue. Therefore, a considerable part of the country's 4 trillion investment is related to the real estate industry.
(3) Reform of medical and health system. On April 6, 2009, Xinhua News Agency was authorized to issue the Opinions of the Central Committee of the State Council on Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System. The Opinions put forward the short-term goal of "effectively reducing the burden of residents' medical expenses and effectively alleviating the' difficulty and high cost of medical treatment'" and the long-term goal of "establishing and improving the basic medical and health system covering urban and rural residents and providing safe, effective, convenient and cheap medical and health services for the masses". The medical reform invested 850 billion yuan to ensure support for five key reforms, such as accelerating the basic medical security system, initially establishing the national essential drug system, improving the primary medical and health system, promoting the gradual equalization of basic public health services, and promoting the pilot reform of public hospitals. The reform of medical and health system will effectively improve the medical security of urban low-and middle-income people and farmers, weaken their demand for preventive savings, and thus promote private investment and consumption.
Third, China's economic recovery.
Under the influence of a series of active fiscal policies of the government, China's economy shows signs of recovery. According to the survey data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national business climate index in the first quarter was 105.6, which was 1.4 points lower than that in the previous quarter, and the decline was obviously narrowed (2 1.6 points lower than that in the third quarter of last year). The entrepreneur confidence index was 10 1. 1, up 6.5 points from the previous quarter; From June 5438 to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 2,008.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. At the end of March, the balance of broad money supply (M2) was 53.06 trillion yuan, up 25.5 1% year-on-year, 7.69 percentage points and 5.1percentage point higher than the end of last month. In addition, according to customs statistics, in March this year, China's total import and export value was US$ 65.438+06.202 billion, down 20.9% year-on-year, of which exports were US$ 90.29 billion, down 654.38+076.5438+0% year-on-year; Imports were $765,438+$73 million, down 251%year-on-year; The trade surplus of the month was US$ 6,543.8+US$ 08.56 billion, up 4,654.38+0.2% year-on-year. Various indicators show that China's foreign trade has begun to show obvious signs of improvement.
Let's look at the two major industries that support economic development: the automobile industry and the real estate industry. According to the latest statistics released by China Automobile Industry Association on April 9th, under the dual effects of favorable national policies and seasonal cycles, China's automobile sales reached 2,678,800 vehicles in the first quarter of 2009, up 3.88% year-on-year, and reached a record high in March, reaching11099,800 vehicles. In 2008, when the global automobile industry was generally frustrated, China's automobile sales reached 9.38 million, second only to the United States. Considering that the national policies to stimulate the economy have gradually taken effect and the automobile market has begun to pick up, it can be predicted that the total automobile output of China may surpass that of the United States in 2009. In the real estate industry, since February this year, there has been a general "Xiaoyangchun" market in the national property market with a sharp rebound in transactions. According to the 30 cities tested by China Index Academy, the residential transaction area in 24 cities increased compared with 1 in February. In March, the property markets in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced the warmest spring since 2008, and the transaction volume of the three places increased significantly. Among them, Beijing's property market has the largest transaction volume, with the number of first-hand houses and second-hand houses online signing 15034 and 19973 respectively, up 8 1.5% from the previous month and1%from the previous month. In terms of price, real estate in the three places also rose slightly.
Fourthly, the future prospects of China's economy.
From a series of policies issued by the state to expand domestic demand, promote growth and adjust the structure, and the changes in domestic industries under the influence of these policies, we can see that under the effective macro-control of the China government, China's economy is showing signs of recovery. Although it is still too early to draw a conclusion about economic recovery, as far as the current situation is concerned, the goal of maintaining the GDP growth rate of 8 in 2009 set by the China government is achievable. Not long ago, many foreign media regarded the G20 Summit in London as a G2 dialogue between China and the United States. It can be seen that China's economic status in the world has improved significantly, and the world has begun to pay attention to China's every move. The financial crisis may be a difficult challenge for China, but I think it is a good opportunity. In 2009, when the global economy is generally depressed (Dominique Strauss-Kahn, President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), once said that the global economy will experience negative growth in 2009), China will be regarded as the country with the fastest economic recovery, and the recovery of the world economy needs China economy. No matter how much China is driving the world economy, as far as China is concerned, this series of "combination boxing" by the China administration will gradually play a role in the next few years. It is believed that under the joint action of the "visible hand" of macro-control and the "invisible hand" of the market, China will maintain steady growth.