Pig prices plummeted after the farmers pressed the fence to sell pig prices to meet the rise
Just 100 days pig prices from 20 yuan / catty high point fell to the waist, so many pig farmers can not accept, but the pig prices in mid-May after the sudden rebound so that many pig farmers surprised a lot of the country's provincial pig prices in the vicinity of 15 yuan / catty bumpy run. As we all know, the price of hogs fell mainly due to the centralized slaughter of hairy pigs, market consumption downturn, superimposed on the butchery enterprises wielded "cattle knife" due to why the price of hogs at this time to meet the rise suddenly?
Brick agricultural products shopping network research director Lin Guofa analyzed that the April-May hog pig price panic kill fall, "cow pig" clearing the basic end of the hog price rise to provide power. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in the recent pig price monitoring weekly report also analyzed this, "by the impact of the rapid decline in hog prices, farmers of hog farming profitability level obviously declined, the pressure of the fence to sell the mood of the turn thick, the amount of hogs out of the pen to reduce the support of hogs and pork prices bottomed out." This is also many people's **** knowledge of this rise in pig prices.
Zhang Jinliang, general manager of Shenyang Pushan Farming Company, said to reporters, "the early market many people can not accept ah." He thought that the high price of piglets in the early stage, many pig farms to buy piglets at a price of about 2,000 yuan / head, resulting in the cost of fattening out more than 12 yuan / catty, and the previous period of time in some areas of the price of pigs once fell below 10 yuan, many people can not afford to lose, and had to choose not to sell, which contributed to a certain extent to the wave of upward movement of the market, and today (June 2) the price of pigs in Shenyang has risen to 14.7 yuan / catty.
In addition, the reporter learned that the agricultural wealth treasure dictionary, the national pig prices rebound first from the northeast to open, as the heavy production of the first army in the northeast has enough gross pig resources deployment of the country, the first rebound in the northeast also went on to affect the East China, Central China, and even the South China market, pig prices gradually began to rebound, but due to the consumption has not yet been a major improvement in the local area, the rate of increase is limited.
Consumption to rise cattle pigs out of the clearing, June hog prices more favorable
Analysis of the current hog supply situation, the lack of pigs is still the theme, experienced the previous pig prices "big dive", many people are extraordinarily cherish the current rebound after the market. Zhang Jinliang gift reporter said, pig prices reached 15 yuan / catty on many pig farmers are profiteering like existence. But in the end this wave of rebound can be sustained, comprehensive factors, the industry more optimistic about the June market.
First from the consumer environment. According to the Ministry of Commerce data, the national service consumption further warmed up. 230.7 billion yuan of national food and beverage revenue in April, down 31.1% year-on-year, a decline of 15.7 percentage points narrower than the previous month. Catering business activity index rose to more than 60.0%, more than 10 percentage points higher than last month, obviously warm.
At the same time, in a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on May 24, Ji Zhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the new crown epidemic had an impact on the consumer sector, and that in the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission would take measures to promote the return of consumption, and vigorously promote the optimization and upgrading of the consumption of commodities, mainly in the areas of food, clothes, food, housing, and transportation.
Affected by the return of the price of hogs, Qian DaMa supermarket excellent fresh pork sold 23.5 yuan a catty, consumers buy desire to enhance.
Also from the level of the breeding end. Lin Guofa analyzed that, with reference to the June 2019 pig price panic kill fall, Guangdong pig price led the national pig price explosive rise, and finally hit a record high in October of that year. This year's market experienced a panic plunge in April-May, June ushered in the inflection point probability added.
"Purely from a supply perspective, June-July is theoretically the lowest number of large pigs available in the market for the whole year. Affected by the impact of the low absolute value of the breeding sow inventory in the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of newborn piglets from December 2019 to the first quarter of 2020, theoretically, the newborn piglets in that time period is low, determined to the theoretical amount of June-August pig slaughter in the annual low point. The current "cattle pig" clearing is basically over, and the weather objective factors also make these cattle pigs need to be slaughtered before the summer, reducing the potential of June-August market supply of large pigs. Superimposed on the current catering industry continues to restore weight, external dining increased. And imported pork is currently surfacing big losses, in addition to some state-owned enterprises, importers import willingness to decline, but also reduce the 3 quarter of pork imports are expected, which is conducive to the rebound in pig prices." Lin Guofa said.
Finally from the acquisition level. "The early impact of the main force of the rise in pig prices is undoubtedly the big fat pigs in the pressure pen, but at present this part of the inventory has been consumed in stages to clear." Shandong a pig broker told reporters, they invented in the acquisition of hogs, it has been difficult to receive large fat pigs, farmers are selling mood is very strong, the reporter got the news from the pig brokers, more than 350 pounds of fat pig purchase price and the standard pig gap is almost very small, only a gap of 1-2 cents / catty. Big pig purchase price and standard pig is no different, from this point of view, undoubtedly favorable to the price of pigs.
Limiting factors are still up, it is recommended that farmers normal fences
Throughout this year's pig price trend, pig prices from the high point of "a drop", and the government control has a lot to do. After all, the stabilization of pig prices is a matter of national livelihood, which is to request consumers to have pork to eat, but also let consumers eat cheap.
According to the reporter's statistics, as of June 2 this year, the Chinese business has been put 20 times a total of 380,000 tons of storage of frozen pork. 27 May the day of the central management of the storage of commodities in the Chinese business is the first time that the volume of the central put to 30,000 tons, which also reflects the government's determination to regulate the price of pigs. The price of stored meat is about one-third lower than the price of fresh meat, which will also have a certain impact on the price of fresh meat.
In addition, the recent leadership of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development also expressed their views on pig prices. After the opening session of the Third Session of the Thirteenth National People's Congress on May 22, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Han Changfu said in an interview with the media, "from October last year, the breeding sows inventory stopped falling back to the rise, has lasted seven months to resume the weight of the growth to last month, than last year in September, an increase of 18.7%; hog inventory also lasted three months of growth. Breeding sow inventory and pig inventory, which is the core indicator of pig production, from these two indicators, the momentum is still good. According to this momentum to go on, the realization of this year's hog production to restore the weight of the target, that is, to restore the weight of the basic close to the level of perennial or very hopeful. We judge that, with the hog production to restore weight, supply and demand will gradually improve, after the market pork prices will not rise again significantly."
"Overall hog production capacity continues to return to the objective fact remains unchanged, but also need to know the current hog industry reality." Lin Guofa thought that the current market can supply the number of large pigs added lower than the market expectations, but the demand for the return of weight Xu Xu and the demand for constant uncertainty is still the core factor affecting the height of the rebound of pig prices in June-August, it is recommended that farmers normal fencing.