friends who have bought pork recently should find that the price of pork has dropped significantly, but the insiders have issued an early warning of pork price increase.

with the continuous decline of international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil prices will be greatly reduced.

After falling for nine weeks in a row, the price of eggs has rebounded recently, and the price of eggs in many places has returned to 5 yuan.

A news from the market is that the persistently depressed wheat price is also worrying.

Early warning of pork price increase

According to media reports, citizens in Beijing, Shandong and other places generally reported that pork prices have dropped significantly recently.

The price of pork belly in Beijing dropped to 22 yuan, and the front and back tips of pork dropped to 17 yuan.

The pork belly in Shandong dropped to 18.9 yuan, and the back elbow meat dropped to 18 yuan.

According to the data monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in a week from February 31, 2122 to October 5, 2123 was 25.5 yuan, down 3% from the previous month.

the decline of pork price is due to the decline of pig price, and there are several main logics to promote the decline of pig price:

1. There is not much time to complete the monthly slaughter task for group pig farms in January, which makes the slaughter amount of group pig farms increase month-on-month.

2. After the price of pigs continues to fall deeply, the enthusiasm of pig farmers is at a high level.

there is an abundant supply of standard pigs in the market.

3. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an increase in slaughter and fattening in the market.

4. The terminal consumption has never improved significantly, and the supply and demand are unbalanced.

However, some people in the industry have recently issued an early warning of the price increase of pork.

With the recovery of pork consumption in some parts of the north and south, and the favorable spring festival, the improvement of epidemic situation will speed up the digestion of live pigs in the market.

In addition, the continuous decline in pig prices will also cause the farmers to be reluctant to sell. After the monthly slaughter task of group pig farms is completed, the amount of pigs will be reduced, and it is expected that the price of pigs and pork will have some room for increase.

On October 6th, the average price of pork has started to rise, up 1% compared with the previous day, reaching 25.13 yuan/kg.

downward adjustment of gasoline

The second adjustment of oil price in p>2123 will start at 24: 11 on October 7, because the latest crude oil inventory report released by us energy information administration EIA shows that the US crude oil inventory has increased by 1.7 million barrels; American petroleum institute API announced that US crude oil inventories increased by about 3.3 million barrels.

these two points can reflect the weak economic growth and low demand for crude oil in the United States.

however, OPEC+, which was expected to reduce production, has shown signs of increasing recently, and its oil output has increased instead of falling. The latest survey results show that the OPEC+oil output in February was 29 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day compared with that in October.

influenced by the above factors, the international crude oil price dropped significantly this week. Even if the international crude oil price stabilized and rebounded in the last two working days, it failed to change the downward trend of crude oil price. By the time of publication, Brent crude oil price had dropped to $78.55/barrel, while WTI American crude oil price had dropped to $73.68/barrel.

according to the comprehensive change rate of the international crude oil price, it is estimated that the domestic refined oil price will be lowered by 1.91 yuan/ton at 24: 11 on October 7, 2123, which is equivalent to a price increase of 1.14 yuan -1.17 yuan. It will cost about 8 yuan less to add a tank of oil when driving home during the Spring Festival.

The price of eggs has risen

In fact, since October 2122, the domestic egg price has started a downward journey, and this decline has been going on for nine weeks. By the 52nd week of 2122, the weekly average price of the egg wholesale market has dropped to 11.99 yuan/kg, down 5.1% from the previous month.

The drop in egg prices is due to the decrease in personnel mobility, which affects the consumption demand of catering eggs. On the other hand, it is due to the early holiday of students and the return of migrant workers, which also affects the centralized demand for eggs such as canteens.

Under the dual influencing factors, the demand of the egg market is less than expected, and the egg price continues to be weak and low.

However, in recent days, the price of eggs in the market has rebounded, including those in Anhui, Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong and other regions.

I think there are several main logics for the rising price of eggs:

1. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of Shangchao and others for stocking has increased.

2. Some enterprises and communities purchase eggs and distribute condolence gifts.

3. With the recovery of logistics and transportation, a large number of old chickens have been eliminated in the market recently, which makes the productivity of laying hens decrease obviously in a short time.

In the short term, the demand for terminal consumption has increased significantly, and the supply has decreased significantly. It is expected that the price of eggs will have some room to rise.

The wheat market is "worrying"

At present, the overall trend of wheat prices is mainly stable, with small fluctuations in some areas. The wheat prices in Shandong, Hebei and other major producing areas have been slightly lowered by 11-21 yuan/ton, and the quotation focus of domestic mainstream milling enterprises has dropped to about 1.59-1.62 yuan/kg, which is not enough to worry grass-roots farmers. What grass-roots farmers are worried about is that the subsequent wheat prices will continue to fall.

1. Transportation has resumed, and some grain holders have plans to realize cash before the year.

2. With the approach of the Spring Festival, the demand for terminal flour has improved, but the overall boosting effect is not significant.

3. The milling enterprises have finished stocking up one after another, and the manufacturers have lowered their prices and waited for the holiday notice.

4. It is reported that on October 11, the lowest purchase price wheat will be sold by bidding, and the temporary storage wheat will be sold by bidding for 41,111 tons.

5. Grain storage and local reserve rotation of wheat increased efforts to put in, and the market supply continued to increase.

With the policy reserves at all levels being put up one after another, and the lowest purchase price wheat being put into the market, the market supply of wheat will remain at a high level.

Although the demand for flour on the demand side has improved, it is still affected by the epidemic, and the activity of buying and selling is low, which has little effect on boosting wheat prices. It is expected that the "worrying" market of wheat prices will continue for some time.