Brief introduction: In the past few years, with good corporate culture, forward-looking research and excellent medium and long-term performance, Bank of Communications Schroeder has grown into a first-line active management investment and research team in China. In this team, there are not only star fund managers "Three Musketeers": Chong Wang, He Shuai and Yang Hao, but also a group of young fund managers who have grown up rapidly. Tian Xiaolong is a leader among the new generation fund managers of Bank of Communications.

I knew Tian Xiaolong as early as 20 15. My deepest impression of him at that time was that he was extremely clever and had a strong learning ability. After becoming a fund manager, he saw Tian Xiaolong's learning ability more deeply. Tian Xiaolong, who was born in the computer industry, is no longer a fund manager of technology stocks. He expanded his ability circle to the field of large consumption, and improved his understanding of technology growth stocks by understanding consumption.

An important feature of Tian Xiaolong is that he has a strong sensitivity to new things and is good at understanding the essence behind changes through user experience. Tian Xiaolong believes that the sweetest investment in technology stocks is 0 to 1, which is very explosive, but the road from 1 to n may be full of bumps. Change is a double-edged sword of science and technology, and the explosive force brought by change also means that it is difficult to form a powerful moat. On the contrary, the sweetest thing in the consumer industry is 1 turn n, and the moat of enterprises will become stronger and stronger, gaining market share.

As a young fund manager, whether it is management ability, exit control or the improvement of investment and research efficiency, Tian Xiaolong is constantly expanding his ability circle. Of course, what is more important is the enthusiasm for new things and changes, which can be strongly felt in the interview.

Below, let's share some investment "golden sentences" from Tian Xiaolong:

1. I have never positioned myself as a fund manager of technology stocks in a narrow sense, but more as a fund manager of growth stocks.

2. The 1 to n of technology stocks is often full of uncertainty, which often leads to the decline of the moat and the deterioration of the competition pattern. The 1 turn n of consumer goods is very sweet, which is just the opposite of technology stocks and brings about the optimization of competition pattern.

Our investment should be prepared for future registration, and whoever can adapt better will win.

An old leader of mine told me that the most important thing in investment is to respond, not to predict.

I think fund managers occupy the aura of most people in this industry, and many investment achievements are due to the strength of the research department. Under the registration system, the competition of future public offering will be more team competition than individual competition.

6. When I choose technology stocks, I will put the middle industry trend in the first place, and then choose good companies under good industry trends.

7. To study consumer goods, we must study consumer psychology.

8. The biggest change in consumer goods in the past two years comes from the integration of new products and new channels.

9. It doesn't matter if you don't invest in consumer goods from 0 to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3. The key is whether you dare to take a heavy position in the stage from 3 to n, and the opportunity from 0 to 1 comes more from diligence and foresight. But the grasp of the opportunity from 3 to n comes more from deep understanding.

Science and technology grasp 0 to 1, and consumption enjoys 1 to n.

Zhu Ang: Many growth stock fund managers spoke highly of you before, so I finally got a chance to talk to you about investment, or what have you learned in the past year?

Tian Xiaolong To be honest, I think my investment period is not long enough, and many frameworks are not particularly mature, but I have some opinions to share. Looking at TMT, the style of technology investment in the past portfolio is also very distinct. But since last year, I have added consumption and medicine to my portfolio, expanding my ability circle.

My idea is simple. I have never positioned myself as a fund manager of technology stocks in a narrow sense, but more as a fund manager of growth stocks. After I saw the consumer goods, it also helped me understand the advantages and disadvantages of investing in technology stocks. What's more, after the expansion of the competence circle, the withdrawal of scientific and technological investment can be effectively controlled.

The 1 to n of technology stocks is often full of uncertainty, which often leads to the decline of moat and the deterioration of competition pattern in this process. The 1 turn n of consumer goods is just the opposite of technology stocks, which brings about the optimization of competition pattern. I bought a leading food supply chain enterprise this year, which belongs to consumer goods 1 to n. In this process, not only the brand is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, the channels are constantly improving, the comprehensive cost is also declining, and the gap with competitors can be said to be widening.

The charm of science and technology investment lies in many technical routes, many innovations and strong explosiveness. Some enterprises saw a technical route and got a bonus from 0 to 1. This process is very rapid. However, in the process of 1 to n, if the moat and business model are not so strong, many competitors will enter, so we must be vigilant at this time. Some successful companies from 0 to/kloc-0 may fall back in the process, which is completely different from consumer goods investment.

Secondly, I found that the research frameworks of many companies in Consumer are completely consistent with my views on technology stocks. For example, some consumer goods I bought also started with a big innovation. We have seen the changes in the supply chain of the catering industry. Many restaurants no longer start with raw materials, but others provide distribution, and restaurants can fry directly. I'm still studying sugar-free drinks, blind boxes, tide play and so on. The methodology of these new consumption studies is exactly the same as that of technology stocks. The difference is that when consumer goods go from 1 to n, they are very sweet.

It is often said that the ceilings of some consumer goods companies are very high and far away, and only these companies can do it in the future. This is rarely heard in the investment of technology stocks, because many technology industries have to cut prices, and the ceiling is easy to calculate. Consumer goods, on the other hand, can rely on price increases even if the quantity does not increase.

Investing in technology stocks should be particularly forward-looking, and the changes in financial reports are often lagging behind. It may not be particularly applicable to buy and sell technology stocks after reading the changes in financial reports. In fact, the competition pattern of many technology stocks has deteriorated without any change in financial reports.

Zhu Ang: Very interesting. Have you thought a lot in the past year or so?

Tian Xiaolong, I'm still thinking about another problem: getting ready to register. With the continuous expansion of A shares, we will cover more and more companies in the future, which will bring challenges to today's investment model.

One is to become like the Hong Kong market, and a large number of companies will be marginalized. Although some companies make pricing mistakes, it is inefficient to find them one by one. So this year I introduced some quantitative indicators to help me select from the financial indicators. The financial indicators of each industry are different, so it is necessary to find out the core driving forces of different industries and conduct personalized screening. After screening through quantitative tools, we will further study this company. This is what I learned from one of our excellent colleagues. At Bank of Communications, colleagues around us are treasures, and everyone is happy to share them.

I think 10 will be the golden year of active equity investment in the future, and the investment and research capabilities of different fund companies will also be divided.

Objectively respect the industrial trend of science and technology investment

Zhu Ang: I watched your live broadcast earlier, saying that the industry trend of buying technology stocks is the first, the business model is the second, and the company quality is the third. This is not the same as many people put the company's texture in the first place. Can you elaborate on it?

Tian Xiaolong: I think the mentality in investment is more important than age, and there must be a weak mentality. An old leader of mine told me that the most important thing in investment is to respond, not to predict. I think this is very correct. If you can always predict the trend of science and technology, you will be wrong sooner or later.

This is why industrial trends are so important for investment in technology stocks. We should respect industrial trends, not go against them. In the top industry trends, there will not be many companies that really benefit. We just need to buy these companies. I finally bought a company, not an industry. If I look at an industry trend, I won't buy too much at this track.

In my investment, I think it is difficult for the technology industry to "win", so we need to follow the changes and not be too subjective. For example, when we studied consumer electronics, we learned speakers, headphones, AR/VR and intelligent robots. Finally, the trend of which industry we will buy is rising; We will sell any failed industry trends. Every time I buy a technology stock, I will mark it at different stages of the company's development, knowing the company's position at 0,/kloc-0, 2, 3, n, and I will think about these issues when I buy it. Every time the company develops to a certain stage, I will think about how to operate next. The competition pattern and market capacity are as different as we thought when we first bought them.

I think fund managers occupy the aura of most people in this industry. In fact, we all occupy the advantages of the team, and many investment results come from the strength of the research department. Especially in Public Offering of Fund, ranking is a big environment, and it really depends on the team to do better every year. I think Bank of Communications Schroeder has done a good job in this respect and is good at cultivating people.

Zhu Ang: I see that after 2020, your portfolio is reducing the allocation of technology stocks. Why?

Tian Xiaolong has two reasons. The first reason is that many technology stocks are overvalued. Many technology stocks will face more and more competition after making better profits through innovation, which is not uncommon among technology stocks. The second reason is that the Huawei incident is really affecting the entire downstream demand. How will Huawei finally go? I think it may be an "organic crisis" and there is considerable uncertainty.

Regarding technology stocks, I summarized three best directions last year: semiconductors, cloud computing, and post-5G cycles. At present, semiconductors are not only expensive, but also downstream demand has encountered some problems because of the Huawei incident. Cloud computing belongs to the consumption characteristics of technology stocks, and its business model is very good. There are also a number of excellent companies overseas. The biggest problem in the past was the lack of good companies. The earliest A-share technology companies are more project-oriented enterprises. The good news is that with more and more listed companies, there will be more outstanding targets listed. In particular, the new product I will issue next can be invested in Hong Kong stocks, where there are a number of truly excellent software companies.

In fact, I still use the original growth stock framework to make investment, but I just extend this framework to the field of consumer goods, so that when the valuation of technology stocks is high or there are systemic risks, I can find other investment opportunities and avoid a big retracement of my portfolio due to systemic risks. Only in the investment of technology stocks, I will prefer the opportunity of 0 to 1, while in consumer medicine, I will prefer the opportunity of 1 to n, because the consumption of 1 to n is often the optimization of the competitive landscape, while technology is just the opposite.

Zhu Ang: What do you think of the management of technology stocks? For example, a leading consumer electronics company can grow up because of its excellent management. What do you think of this problem?

Excellent management in Tian Xiaolong is of course very important. Many people have earned several times in this company because of their trust in management. My point is that we can't rely entirely on excellent management in the investment of technology stocks, because even the best management may make mistakes in the face of technology trends. I will divide the company into different stages, verify the companies in different stages, and track the changes of the industry competition pattern. Doing so may be more difficult than holding it for a long time, but it can reduce the risk of uncertainty.

I'm just kidding. If someone tells you that no one will buy a certain brand of soy sauce tomorrow, you won't believe it. But if someone says that a technology company has lost a big order, you may not be so surprised. This is the difference between technology and consumption. The process of technology from 0 to 1 is wonderful, but the business operation fluctuates greatly.

So I invest in technology stocks and put the industrial trend first. When I choose technology stocks, I will put the middle industry trend in the first place, and then choose good companies under good industry trends.

Discover investment opportunities around you through experience.

Zhu Ang: Judging from the consumer goods you bought, even the varieties of 1 to N are new consumption?

Tian Xiaolong: I prefer to feel changes through my own experience, whether it's changes in technology or changes in consumption, so that I can apply my original investment framework to technology stocks. During this time, I also studied non-listed companies such as Yuanmian Forest. This company has a very good grasp of consumer psychology. The product is packed in Japanese style and contains no sugar. It can be seen that there is a great demand for sugar-free drinks at this price. After Yuan Qi Forest is made, a large number of companies will enter sugar-free drinks at this price.

In order to study Wan Chao, I recently bought a pair of fashionable sports shoes and added Wan Chao's WeChat group. Understand the psychology of consumers through their own experiences and contacts. I think researchers who look at consumption now should have a media background, and vice versa. The biggest change in consumer goods in the past two years comes from the integration of new products and new channels. Many new consumer goods are rapidly becoming popular through Internet channels. To study new consumer goods, we may often brush new channels such as Tik Tok.

And the recent craze for playing blind boxes. I also studied the business model and found it really good. In essence, * * * enjoys a bicycle, * * enjoys a charging treasure and plays a blind box, all of which are very similar business models. It's just that OFO has a large investment and poor profitability. * * * The investment of charging treasure does not need to be so heavy, and its profitability is relatively strong. The data of Wan Chao Blind Box shows that the turnover rate of products is high. However, the potential risk here is that since the profits are so strong, competitors will definitely enter this field.

I admire my predecessor very much. He greatly inspired me to invest in consumer goods. He told me that if we want to study consumer goods, we should study consumer psychology and read these books on consumer psychology first. When investing in consumer goods, it doesn't matter if you don't invest 0 to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3. The key is whether you dare to hold a heavy position in the stage from 3 to n, which is the time to truly reflect the investment level of consumer goods. I think the probability of finding 0 to 1 comes more from diligence and foresight. But the grasp of the opportunity from 3 to n comes more from deep understanding.

Zhu Ang: If you put big consumption into your investment framework, you can not only control the retreat, but also improve your management scale and ability?

Tian Xiaolong is right, the stage from 1 to n for consumer goods is getting easier and easier, while the stage from 0 to 1 for technology stocks is very exciting. In the past two years, growth stocks have two engines. One is localization, including technology and medicine, which has benefited from the improvement of domestic output rate and gained opportunities for growth; The other is the increase of concentration. For example, many companies that consume building materials benefit from this opportunity.

When I was studying consumer goods, I also found that major emergencies were very important to the test of the company. We see consumer goods in America and Japan. Why are some companies the first and some the second? The important reason for this is that in the development stage of the company, a major event was encountered, and the choices made by different companies had a great impact on the subsequent development. For example, this year's epidemic, some consumer goods companies choose to subsidize the downstream, and some consumer goods companies choose to reduce inventory. Then after this major choice, the gap between companies may never be pulled back.

Zhu Ang: I see that there are some catering supply chain companies in your portfolio?

The whole restaurant in Tian Xiaolong is developing towards more industrialization. There is an interesting saying: everything in this world is worth doing again with freezing technology. The trend of this industry is very good. After the outbreak of the epidemic, this kind of industrialized quick-frozen food has increased.

Once we went to investigate companies in the industry and had an interesting lunch in the laboratory. We can eat anything we want by heating the pre-frozen semi-finished products, and it tastes good. I think the ceiling of this trend is very high and the change is gradual. The excellent companies in the track are entering the sweet spot.

Zhu Ang: You are an expert on technology stocks. Can you talk about your views on new energy vehicles?

Compared with other car companies, Tian Xiaolong Tesla has an important difference: Tesla is a software company, just like Microsoft and Google. Before I went overseas to investigate Japanese auto giants, they all looked down on Tesla. In fact, competitors don't understand that Tesla's core is a software company.

I have studied the localization of new energy vehicles. They don't do it for suppliers according to the traditional vehicle model, but they put forward new requirements and ideas to suppliers quickly and iteratively like software companies. This is why Tesla has found more vendors willing to provide services in China, and iterated with Tesla with agile software development ideas. From this perspective, we can understand why its valuation is much higher than that of traditional car manufacturers.

Zhu Ang: So what do you think is the current market direction?

From the perspective of consumption growth, I think it is definitely a good direction for young people to have fun, and there are healthy drinks like Yuanmian Forest, which can satisfy consumers' psychology. There is also a direction in consumption, which is to benefit from the relatively high disposable income in the third and fourth lines. Housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities are relatively low, and everyone's disposable income is relatively high. Coupled with new channels like Tik Tok, you will find that the consumption power of the third-and fourth-tier population is also very strong. As mentioned above, consumer goods should be viewed from the perspective of consumer psychology, and the history of consumer goods in the United States and Japan should not be viewed too rigidly.

In pharmaceutical growth stocks, we can constantly find different investment opportunities. The charm of medicine is that there are all kinds of companies in this industry. I may not know a lot about some innovative drug companies, but I can still buy some consumer companies in medicine. There are also some companies with scientific and technological properties in medicine, similar to innovative equipment, which I am optimistic about in the medium and long term.

Zhu Ang: Are there any jumping points or mutations in your growing experience?

Tian Xiaolong, I think it's a 20 15 bull-bear round, which has a great influence on me. I went to Bank of Communications Schroeder on 20 14 to see the computer industry. At that time, I really didn't have an introduction to research, and I had an immature idea about studying this industry.

The advantage is that watching so many companies go up and then down has made me really reflect and formed a relatively mature research framework. Later, when the technology sector was not good, our company still found a company with Alpha characteristics, and that stage was a leap for itself.

The second leap point is that after I made an investment last year, I began to expand my horizons to the field of consumption. Through the understanding of the consumer industry, my understanding of science and technology investment has also reached a higher level.

I feel lucky to see the computer industry when I enter the business. There are many changes in this industry, which makes me very sensitive to many changes. Being able to join Bank of Communications Schroeder is the luckiest thing. The company's values are very positive, and the leaders are very tolerant of our growth, giving us a lot of room for growth. In the company, I can not only increase my knowledge and enjoy happiness, but also grow up with the holders, which makes me full of enthusiasm for this job.