As a pillar industry of industrial economic development, the automobile industry has not experienced great fluctuations in the world at present. However, according to the epidemic trend, countries such as Europe and the United States are likely to break out on a large scale in the future, which will have a serious adverse impact on the entire automobile industry chain. Some people even speculate that this epidemic will change the development pattern of the global market.
In addition, the COVID-19 epidemic has been gradually controlled in China, and all walks of life have started to develop steadily. Especially in the automobile industry, the China government has issued relevant stimulus policies to accelerate the recovery of the automobile market. At present, most automobile factories, including Hubei Province, have resumed work, and automobile production enterprises have started to operate normally one after another.
In this regard, Shui Pi, a well-known economic commentator, said in an interview with a car prophet that car companies in Europe, America and other places will continue to cope with the test of the COVID-19 epidemic for a long time to come. In contrast, China's auto market has almost returned to normal. Under such a development situation, the automobile industry may present a new phenomenon in 2020: the global automobile income mainly depends on the China market.
1
The global economy has been seriously affected by the epidemic.
Since the end of 1, the COVID-19 epidemic has broken out rapidly in China. In the past two months, the automobile market in China has been greatly affected. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the national automobile production and sales in February were 285,000 vehicles and 365,438 vehicles +0 respectively, with an average decrease of 83.9% from the previous month and 79.8% and 79. 1% respectively. During 1-2 months, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.048 million and 2.238 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.8% and 42% respectively. Regarding the sharp decline in automobile production and sales in China, the China Automobile Association said that it was mainly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and had little to do with the real automobile demand.
From the global automobile market, the overall production and sales have not changed, but the epidemic has begun to seriously affect most countries except China. Data show that as of March 9th, there have been 104 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world. Except China, there were 28 165 cases of COVID-19 in the world, with 706 deaths.
The number of confirmed cases in COVID-19 continues to rise, and the threat to major manufacturers of automobile enterprises including the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea is also increasing. It is understood that in the United States alone, 24 states and Washington, D.C. have declared a state of emergency. Before March 1 1, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in COVID-19, USA had reached 13 12, with 38 deaths. Among them, 220 cases were diagnosed in New York State. With the continuous spread of the epidemic in the United States, new york's presidential primary election, St. Patrick's Day parade and other large-scale activities have been cancelled or postponed.
On March 13, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide in COVID-19.
According to American news reports, although the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic is deepening, American car dealers are still optimistic. At present, the sales of new cars in some areas with serious epidemic in the United States have declined, and the sales in most areas have not been significantly affected. If the epidemic continues to develop, automobile manufacturers will also face problems such as production suspension and shutdown. Relevant institutions predict that the sales of new cars in the United States this year may be only 6.5438+0.55 million, down 9% from 2065.438+0.9. From this point of view, there are still potential threats in the American auto market and it will face a serious crisis in the future.
In the face of the rapid spread of the epidemic, despite the tough measures taken by many European governments, the "European epidemic map" had spread to 45 countries before March 1 1. Among them, there were 827 confirmed cases 12462 in COVID-19, Italy, with a mortality rate of 6%. In addition to Italy, France, Germany, Spain and other countries have also begun to show an explosive trend. In response, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that COVID-19 may infect 70% of Germany's population, about 58 million people. For the development of the European epidemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention even called Europe a new epidemic center.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the Bank of England issued a statement saying that economic activities in Britain will be relatively weakened in the coming months. To this end, the Bank of England announced that it would cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.25% to improve the cash flow of enterprises and households. At the same time, the British Treasury also announced a fiscal stimulus plan of 30 billion pounds on 1 1.
Europe is one of the most important areas for automobile development in the world, but the epidemic situation is not optimistic, and most automobile companies have to respond quickly. Among them, Fiat Chrysler Group said that it will temporarily stop the operation of some Italian factories; Italian tire manufacturer Pirelli will also cut the production of factories in northern Italy; Volkswagen is considering temporary layoffs in the Spanish factory ... Up to now, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread around the world for less than two weeks, and the development of European auto companies has begun to appear obstacles.
Recently, Zhong Nanshan, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, said at a press conference on epidemic prevention and control that if other countries pay as much attention to the COVID-19 epidemic as China, the global epidemic may end in June, otherwise the time may be extended. In the meantime, this means that the COVID-19 epidemic will bring many challenges to European and American car companies.
In addition, China, Japan and South Korea are closely related, and the number of confirmed cases in Japan, South Korea and COVID-19 is still increasing. As of March 12, there were 634 confirmed cases in Japan and 7755 confirmed cases in Korea. In order to avoid the rapid expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic, Japan has requested that large-scale collective activities be restrained to 19, and South Korea has also restricted some assembly activities. At the same time, Japan and South Korea have also introduced measures to restrict the flow of people.
Different from Europe and America, Japan and South Korea are influenced by geographical factors, and their automobile enterprises rely more on China for production and spare parts. In February, the epidemic broke out on a large scale in China, and Japanese and Korean car companies' factories in China and local areas were seriously affected. Previously, Nissan was forced to close two production lines. In the future, as the epidemic situation in Japan continues, Goldman Sachs Group analyzes that the profits of the five major Japanese automakers will be reduced by 654.38+070 billion yen.
In major regions of the world, the COVID-19 epidemic has affected the local economic development to varying degrees. Specific to the automobile industry, the epidemic has caused more car companies to be unable to produce and return to work. With the aggravation of the epidemic, the problems faced by the global automobile industry may shift from the production end to the sales end.
2
Global automobile production and sales are trapped.
According to the relevant forecast, in 2020, due to the COVID-19 epidemic and other factors, the global automobile sales volume is expected to drop by 3.5%-4%. Behind this share, more automobile companies in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea can't restore production capacity and sales volume in a short time because of the epidemic, which ultimately affects the overall sales volume.
Looking back at 20 19, the total sales of automobiles in the world reached 90.3 million. According to the normal development trend of the automobile market, the global automobile market sales may decline slightly to 9,065,438+10,000 vehicles in 2020. However, due to the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic, car sales around the world have been affected to varying degrees. It is estimated that car sales will decrease by at least 3.7 million to 86.4 million in 2020.
The lack of sales of nearly 4 million vehicles caused by the epidemic is largely due to the decline in production and sales of mainstream car companies such as German, American and Japanese. Judging from the current development situation, Tesla said that it will reduce the sales target of 65,438+00% this year to 452,000 vehicles. In addition, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mitsubishi and Mazda, Japan's top five auto companies, expect to reduce production by 580,000 vehicles in the first four months of this year. At the same time, only in the first 1-2 months, the sales volume of China automobile market decreased by nearly 1.62 million compared with the same period.
The data shows that in 20 19, the global sales volume of Volkswagen Group was10.97 million, that of Mercedes-Benz was 2.33 million, and that of BMW was 2.52 million. The global sales of German giants reached15.82 million, accounting for 17.5% of the total global sales last year. In addition, GM sold 7.745 million vehicles, Ford sold 4.90110,000 vehicles and FCA sold 4.36 million vehicles. Last year, the three major American auto companies sold170,000 vehicles, accounting for 18.8% of global sales. In addition, Toyota's sales in 20 19 reached 1074? .2 million vehicles, Honda sold 4.826 million vehicles, Nissan Renault and Mitsubishi Alliance sold 10 1600 vehicles, Hyundai Kia sold 7.203 million vehicles, and PSA sold 31760,000 vehicles.
According to the above statistics, among the top ten car companies in the world last year, the total sales of multinational car companies exceeded 68 million, accounting for 76.3% of the global sales. For 2020, this means that the sales changes of multinational automobile companies will become the main factor affecting the global automobile market.
Judging from the development trend of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it will not only affect the automobile manufacturing field, but also affect the global life rhythm, consumption habits and even economic growth for a long time. In response, international economic and financial institutions warned that the global epidemic had a negative impact on the economy. Due to the stagnation of aviation, catering, automobile and other industries, the economic growth of countries around the world will be significantly reduced, ranging from 0.4% to 1.5%, which means that the global GDP will be reduced by 400 billion to 1 trillion dollars in the first half of 2020.
In addition to the significant impact on macro-economy and trade, the COVID-19 epidemic will also change consumers' behavior. On the one hand, the pace of life of most people slows down, and a series of unnecessary consumption of food, clothing, housing and transportation is reduced; On the other hand, people have new daily needs and consumption patterns. Especially in the automobile consumer market, although the epidemic situation has appropriately accelerated the online marketing efforts of automobile companies, sales and after-sales services have been carried out through VR exhibition halls, live broadcasts, WeChat and other zero-contact methods, but the sales volume is far less than expected.
three
In 2020, multinational car companies will rely more on China.
In this global COVID-19 epidemic, China is the first serious outbreak area and the first country affected by the automobile market.
In the past two months, automobile manufacturers in 24 provinces and cities in China stopped work and delayed their resumption of work ... Until late February, automobile factories resumed production one after another and resumed production plans. During the epidemic, most automobile manufacturers stopped working for more than ten days, and the shortage of spare parts caused certain losses to the production of multinational automobile companies in China and other factories around the world.
As one of the largest automobile markets in the world, China has quickly become an important development territory for mainstream automobile companies. In 20 19, the sales volume of Volkswagen brand China reached 3163,000 vehicles, up by 1.7% year-on-year, and the sales volume of China accounted for more than 50% of the global market. Toyota sold1620,000 vehicles in China in 20 19, accounting for 15. 1% of the total sales, making it the second largest market after the United States. Gm's sales in China in 20 19 decreased by 15% to only 3.09 million vehicles, but it accounted for nearly 40% of the total sales. Ford's sales in China decreased by 2,665,438+0% year-on-year to 568,000 vehicles; Honda's sales in China reached a new high in 20 19, reaching1550,000 vehicles, and its global market share increased to 32.2%.
In addition, among luxury car brands, the sales of BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi continued to grow. In 20 19, 722,000 vehicles, 702,000 vehicles and 688,000 vehicles were realized in China respectively, and the total sales volume exceeded 265,438+10,000 vehicles. According to the sales data, in 20 19, the total sales volume of automobiles in China was 25.77 million, of which three luxury brands accounted for more than 8%, and the total sales volume of mainstream multinational automobile enterprises exceeded120,000, accounting for 46.6% in the China market.
Daimler Group 20 19 Financial Report
In terms of financial data, the overall profit of Volkswagen Group in 20 19 was 13 10 billion yuan, of which 39.9 billion yuan came from China market, accounting for 30%. For Daimler Group, its 20 19 net profit decreased by 64.5% to 2.7 billion euros, but the profit of Beijing Benz reached12.95 million euros, accounting for 48 1%.
Audi ag 20 19 financial report
Therefore, China market plays an important role in the mainstream car companies. Based on the development of global economy and the position of China automobile market, Shui Pi, editor-in-chief of China Times, pointed out that the income development of global automobile enterprises will be more inclined to China in the future.
With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, various industrial enterprises have resumed production and work one after another, and promoting consumption has become one of the key concerns of the national government. According to the car prophet, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 23 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Upgrading to Accelerate the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market", which put forward corresponding measures from six aspects: market supply, consumption upgrading, consumption network, consumption ecology, consumption capacity and consumption environment to promote consumption expansion and upgrading.
For the automobile industry, the central government promotes the application through the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and the incentive and compensation policy for infrastructure construction. At the same time, different provinces and cities have successively introduced relevant policies to stimulate automobile consumption, and made concessions and simplification in taxation and transactions. After a series of measures were introduced, China Automobile Association predicted that the automobile consumption situation would pick up in April and May.
In an interview with Car Prophet, Shui Pi pointed out that the automobile market in China will soon return to normal, while the COVID-19 epidemic has not been completely and effectively controlled in other parts of the world. In this situation, the production and sales of multinational automobile companies in other regions will face greater challenges. In contrast, in the second half of 2020 and even the whole year, China will become the most effective development market for multinational auto companies, in other words, their revenues will depend on China to a greater extent.
In addition to the normal consumption environment, there will be a lot of new and upgraded consumption in China in the short term. These consumers will put forward more personalized, refined and high-end needs. Among them, a large number of users will have "top consumption". For luxury brands, after the epidemic, there will be opportunities to increase sales in China market.
From these perspectives, in the future or the whole year of 2020, multinational auto companies will be more dependent on the China market while facing the global epidemic, and China will also become an important cornerstone for the future development of the global auto industry.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.