according to the national 11th five-year plan, the energy consumption per unit GDP in China must be reduced by 21% in five years. In May, 2111, the State Council issued the Notice of the State Council on Further Intensifying Work to Ensure the Realization of the 11th Five-Year Plan, stating that "all regions, enterprise groups and administrative inaction departments that have not completed their tasks should be investigated for their main leadership responsibilities".
subsequently, various localities have introduced policies. An official in a province even admitted that the deadline is coming, and the government has clearly linked the completion of energy conservation and emission reduction with the assessment of local officials. At present, the most effective way is probably to directly cut off electricity; What's more, it is directly notified to stop production. I am afraid that similar ideas and practices not only exist in one province, but the policy by-products brought about by them need to be summarized and reflected.
Power cuts create the first by-product-"diesel shortage"
In order to accomplish the task of energy conservation and emission reduction, many local governments adopt a rough "one size fits all" administrative management model, which has a negative impact on the production order of enterprises, national economy and social stability. Because many local power supply lines can't distinguish the users of industries, residents, public facilities and other properties, let alone energy-saving enterprises and energy-consuming enterprises, or industrial processing enterprises and agricultural deep processing enterprises, and can't distinguish between domestic trade processing or foreign trade order processing and the length of the contract period, as long as they are within their jurisdiction, there is no discussion on the power outage strongly promoted by local governments. This not only completely broke the business cycle and resource allocation efficiency of enterprises, but also quickly transmitted to other raw materials markets such as steel and cement.
even, some local governments have come up with new measures to manage the quota of electricity consumption, and created administrative rationing rights and rent-seeking opportunities for local governments. Even so, it can only meet the needs of less than 51% of enterprises at most. In this case, enterprises have to invest more than 211,111 yuan each to buy diesel generators and diesel oil to maintain production and operation, so that the operating costs of enterprises do not fall under the stop point. Although the electricity price converted by enterprises using diesel is about 1.5 ~ 2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is nearly 2 ~ 3 times higher than the on-grid electricity price of 1.7 ~ 1.8 yuan, enterprises using diesel to generate electricity are basically making a single loss, but as long as they can pay all the variable costs or make up some fixed costs, enterprises must make this choice of starting at a loss. The inevitable result is that, while creating the by-product of "diesel shortage", it also weakens the ability of enterprises to accumulate benign and sustainable development.
creating the second by-product in response to the crisis
The "diesel shortage" directly affected the trade and logistics industries such as waterways and land, fishery production at the end of the closed fishing season in coastal areas, agricultural production in autumn, the normal construction progress of infrastructure projects and general processing industries, and caused public criticism of state-owned oil enterprises.
faced with the pressure of public opinion and the continuous shortage of diesel oil supply in various places, state-owned petrochemical enterprises are fully engaged in refining crude oil. Among them, the daily processing capacity of crude oil of PetroChina exceeded 411,111 tons; Sinopec also announced five measures to ensure the supply of diesel oil, and even stopped the original routine maintenance plan at the end of the year; And issued a document, specifically emphasizing the requirement for subordinate refineries to increase diesel oil production, and introducing an incentive policy that refineries can get a bonus of 1,111 yuan for each ton of diesel oil produced beyond the plan, as well as measures such as increasing diesel oil imports. They used all available means to deal with the abnormal production and supply crisis of single product shortage.
In this abnormal crisis, the soaring demand for diesel oil will inevitably lead to an oversupply of gasoline, and even it will have to be exported at a low price, which will eventually bring business risks to enterprises. At the same time, the incentive policy of exceeding the plan by 1,111 yuan per ton will reduce the profitability of enterprises and directly reduce the dividends of SASAC and the rights and interests of shareholders.
the most important thing is that the scheduled routine maintenance at the end of the year is the basic guarantee for the safe production and operation of an enterprise, and it is the result of scientific optimization calculation. If we ignore our own business safety margin for the sake of other people's policy flaws for a long time, that is, we should invest in maintenance instead of doing it, it is very likely to bury a hidden danger of vicious accidents for enterprises. Once an accident happens, this kind of accident is usually a major environmental disaster, which will not only damage the enterprise, but also cause great losses in the area where the enterprise is located.
Energy conservation and emission reduction "reach the standard" to create the third set of by-products
According to media reports, starting from August 26th, Yiwu, Zhejiang Province, implemented the policy of limiting industrial power supply to two days and zero days; In some areas of Wenzhou, it has been promulgated that enterprises will be blacked out for 2-4 days every 1 days. Gaoyao City, Guangdong Province successively imposed power cuts on 51 enterprises in the city from September 11, 2111 to February 31, 2111. Such power rationing policies are numerous and varied throughout the country, and the negative results are also shocking.
1. Order and market lost. In some foreign trade enterprises, power cuts cause some orders of enterprises to default, and a large amount of liquidated damages have to be paid. Therefore, enterprises basically do not accept new customers. For old customers, in order not to lose them, sometimes they have to generate electricity to complete orders and do business at a loss.
2. Capital chain and supply chain rupture crisis. For some heavy industries with long industrial chains, under normal operation, enterprises usually adopt the way of "sending raw materials first and then paying" and "paying money first and then giving goods" for finished products. However, due to power cuts and long-term production suspension, upstream raw material suppliers will demand payment, and downstream customers will not pay any more orders. However, when enterprises stop production, there will be a lot of expenses, which will inevitably lead to the tension or even fracture of the capital chain, which will eventually affect financial institutions such as banks and the efficiency of resource allocation in railway transportation, warehousing and other related supporting industries.
3. Increased sunk cost. Especially in steel-making enterprises, in order to maintain the temperature of ladle, the daily maintenance cost is more than 1 million yuan, but the sunk cost created by it needs to be borne by the enterprises themselves.
4. It reduces the efficiency of energy use in the whole country. The production cost of diesel power generation is higher than that of thermal power and hydropower, and the electricity guarding the power grid can't be used, which not only can't save energy and reduce consumption, but will cause greater waste of petrochemical resources. Moreover, China's electric power system can't reach the advanced intelligent management level such as national intelligent configuration and super-large electric energy storage, and the power utilization rate, operating rate and operating performance of thermal power and hydropower enterprises will be affected by power cut, which will further affect the overall utilization efficiency of energy resources in the whole country.
5. Short-term involuntary unemployment caused by production suspension. According to the survey data, in October, more than 2,111 private gas stations in southern China have closed down due to lack of oil, and the number in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces is as high as several hundred. This not only worsens the operating environment of the logistics industry, but also forces tens of thousands of gas station workers to accept no pay or pay cuts, which makes them involuntarily unemployed and semi-unemployed. As for the processing industry, most enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are paid by piece, and cutting off electricity will directly reduce workers' income and income expectations. In the case that it was very difficult for the original enterprises to recruit workers, the phenomenon of gang resigning due to the inability to maintain their normal livelihood due to the decline in income began to appear, which worsened the business environment of non-public small and medium-sized processing enterprises.
6. Residents and public facilities have become another pool of fish affected. Power outages in some places affected residents and public facilities. Not only did administrative measures deprive residents of the right to consume electric energy, but also made residents' homes cut off power and water. What's more, public facilities can't work normally, and traffic lights in hospitals and highways are not immune. The direct and indirect losses caused have far exceeded the contribution of "energy saving and emission reduction".
7. administrative costs have increased. A series of problems, such as power cut, forced the government to increase the workload of checking and correcting mistakes and the constant press conferences and work readjustment held by governments at all levels, which further increased the expenditure of administrative costs and wasted taxpayers' taxes.