I'll give you a model essay on my work, stating that it's just an assignment different from practice.
National economic evaluation
(A) the calculation of national economic costs
(1) land shadow cost adjustment
According to the nature of land use, Guangdong area is further divided into cultivated land, garden land, woodland and aquaculture water surface. The first-class area has the highest standard, and the compensation and protection standards for cultivated land, garden land, forest land and aquaculture water surface are 994.5, 76.50, 30.60 and 1032800 yuan/hectare respectively (source: /policy/20060824903.html). Assume that 383,708 hectares of cultivated land and forest land are requisitioned, each accounting for 50%. If the conversion coefficient of shadow price of land acquisition, demolition and resettlement fees is 1. 1, the total shadow cost of land is (30.6+99.45) *1.1* 383,708 * 0.5 = 274,456,00 = 274 million.
(2) Adjustment of labor cost for subgrade, tunnel and open-cut tunnel engineering
The total investment of civil engineering is 7,947.88 million, with subgrade, tunnel, open-cut tunnel and house construction accounting for 50% and labor cost accounting for 30%, adjusted to: 794,788 * 0.5 * 0.3 =165438+92.2 million.
(3) Adjustment of track engineering cost
The total investment of track is 299.92 million yuan, and the conversion coefficient of rail shadow price is 1.67.
Adjusted to: 29992 *1.67 = 500.9 million yuan.
(4) cost adjustment of housing projects
The housing investment of this project is 79.4788*0.5=39.7394, and the conversion coefficient of the shadow price of housing construction is 1. 1, which is adjusted to: 3.97394 *1= 4.371334 million yuan.
(5) Calculation of vehicle purchase cost.
According to the data provided by relevant factories, the current import price of subway vehicles is 1.20- 1.8 million USD/vehicle. It is planned to purchase 1 0,000 vehicles in the next 30 years, and the average price will be adjusted to (1.20+1.80) *10,000 *.
(b) National economic interests
(1) Benefits of reducing transportation costs.
Transportation costs mainly include fuel, tires, overhaul and vehicle depreciation related to transportation volume and traffic conditions when there is no subway. Suppose it is reduced by 0.2 billion per year.
(2) the benefits of saving transportation time
After the opening of Metro Line 3, it will become the first subway line with the highest running speed of120km in China. (Source: /2005-05-02/4 10936.htm) The speed of expressway is 30 kilometers per hour. Save an average of 0.75 hours. At present, the daily passenger volume of Guangzhou Metro is 1 Line 310.7 million, and Line 2 is 23 1 10,000. For example, suppose that the number of passengers after the normal operation of Line 3 is 300,000. According to the comparable salary in Guangzhou, it is about 8 yuan per hour.
Therefore, the annual benefit of saving passengers' time is: 0.75 * 30 * 365 * 8/10000 = 657 million yuan.
(3) The benefits of reducing traffic accidents. Compared with the original related roads in the passage, the annual accidents are obviously reduced after the subway is opened. Suppose the annual loss is reduced by 30 million yuan.
(4) Benefits of reducing congestion on related roads Due to the diversion of subways, the increase in traffic volume on related roads is reduced, congestion is reduced, driving speed is increased, passenger transit time is shortened, and transportation costs are also reduced. Suppose the annual income is 20 million RMB.
(C) analysis of national economic profits
The construction period is three years, and it will be put into production in the fourth year, with an estimated service life of 30 years.
Total shadow cost of land, labor cost of subgrade, tunnel, open-cut tunnel, track engineering cost, housing engineering cost and purchase cost of locomotive and rolling stock = 0.274+11.922+5.009+43.7438+0334+15 = 75.966. The benefits of saving transportation time every year, reducing traffic accidents and reducing related expressway congestion,
The total benefit of transportation cost reduction =6.57+0.3+0.2+0.2=7.27.
0~3
4~30
Deduct from income
25.306
profit
7.27
net cash flow
-25.306
7.27
ENPV=-25.306*PVIFA( 12%，3)+7.27*PVIFA( 12%，27)PVIF( 12%，3)= 147.4846 & gt； 0
Therefore, from the perspective of national economy, Guangzhou Metro is a feasible project.
Second, the financial evaluation
(1) revenue source
The passenger revenue of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 in 2004 was 65.438+0.86 billion yuan, but the operating profit in resource development and operation reached more than 64 million yuan, and the cost (electricity, labor, taxes, etc. ) is 2 1 ten thousand yuan, with a slight surplus. The specific sources of income are as follows
(1) Direct income from subway ticket sales
(2) Through advertising light boxes, building property and other commercial means.
(3) store income
It is also a very important source of operating income. Guangzhou Metro has been in operation for more than 2 years, and the business opportunities brought by the subway have been recognized by more and more people. It is understood that when Metro Line 3 was opened in 2004, the occupancy rate of shops was only 52%. It is understood that the operation of kiosks and shops in Metro Line 3 mainly refers to the business model of Line 1, and draws lessons from the successful experience of the business operation of Line 1, and chooses chain as the mainstay, and the industry setting strives to take care of passengers' needs. At present, there are five categories of chain stores that have successfully entered Metro Line 3: first, convenience stores; The second is the chain enterprise of books and newspapers. The third is the printing chain, the fourth is the laundry, and the fifth is the bank.
(4) Real estate
(5) Communications, communications business income increased the most, reaching 6,543,803,540 yuan, an increase of 5,530,000 yuan over the previous year.
(6) Property management
According to reports, the diversified operation of the subway mainly includes: real estate, commerce, advertising, communication, property management and others. Among them, business and advertising revenue also increased significantly, reaching182,500 yuan and 3.45110,000 yuan respectively. According to the industry classification of advertising light box customers in subway stations, the department store industry accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 29.2%, and the growth rate was also the largest, increasing by 19.7 percentage points over the previous year. Last year, the largest advertising company, the communications industry, accounted for 20.8 percentage points of all advertisements, down 7.8 percentage points from last year. In addition, financial and catering advertisements ranked third and fourth respectively. Experts predict that with the development of the residential industry, the income of ancillary resources such as property management will increase substantially. (r08 increased 1 1.53%, but the electricity bill decreased slightly.
(6), other aspects
(B) internal income analysis
The capital of the project is 8,997.6 million yuan, which is solved by the local finance as a whole, accounting for about 60% of the total investment, including 73 1 10,000 yuan of special funds for urban construction arranged by Guangzhou finance, and16876 million yuan of land transfer income of the whole city; 5,998.4 million yuan, except capital, was financed by loans from commercial banks, accounting for about 40% of the total investment.
Asset-liability ratio =59.984/ 149.96=0.4=40%
The loan interest rate is 6. 12%, and the estimated service life is 30 years.
0~3
4~30
investment spending
49.9867
Expenditure (electricity, labor, taxes, etc.). )
2. 1
Income from resource development and operation
0.92
Fare income
1.86
net cash flow
-49.9867
0.68
NPV=-49.9867*PVIFA(6%，3)+0.68*PVIFA(6%，26)=- 123.856 & lt； 0
And the static investment payback period is expected to be more than 30 years, T=44.
Therefore, from the perspective of financial analysis, the possibility of profit of Guangzhou subway project is relatively small.
social assessment
(A) subway impact assessment on the environment
Taking the environmental impact assessment of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 as an example, combined with the experience of environmental impact assessment of subway projects at home and abroad, the guiding ideology, evaluation focus, engineering pollution reanalysis, environmental impact prediction and evaluation of environmental impact assessment of subway projects are discussed, with a view to providing reference for the development of environmental impact assessment of subway projects in China.
As a three-dimensional structure of strip space, subway traffic involves a wide range, and its construction and operation will have different degrees of impact on the surrounding environment along the line [1]. While planning and constructing subway traffic, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to actively carry out environmental impact assessment to avoid the destruction of surrounding ecological environment by subway traffic construction and realize the coordinated development of social economy, resource environment and subway traffic along the subway.
(1) evaluation points
According to the characteristics of the subway project itself, generally speaking, the pollutants produced by it are mainly energy consumption (noise, environmental vibration and electromagnetic radiation), supplemented by material consumption (sewage, waste gas and solid waste); The impact on the ecological environment is mainly the impact on the urban socio-economic environment, supplemented by the impact on the urban natural ecological environment. According to the pollution factor, the evaluation focuses on the noise and environmental vibration impact of the elevated section during the operation period; Environmental vibration influence of underground part: dust, noise and environmental vibration influence during construction. From the concept of space, the evaluation focuses on underground section, elevated section, vehicle section, substation, station, cooling tower and wind pavilion.
2 subway engineering pollution source analysis
(2) Analysis of noise pollution sources during the construction period
Subway project is a large-scale infrastructure construction project, and a large number of mechanical equipment will be used in the construction process, which will have a serious noise impact on the environment along the line, especially at night.
(3) Analysis of environmental vibration pollution sources during the construction period
During the construction of Metro Line 6, a large number of mobile equipment and vehicles will be used. Because the construction section along the subway, especially the section passing through the old city, is in a densely populated and environmentally sensitive area, the vibration generated by these mechanical equipment and vehicles is likely to have a vibration impact on the surrounding environment. In order to ensure the interests of both construction units and urban residents, it is necessary to analyze the impact of vibration generated by construction machinery on the environment.
(4) Analysis of noise pollution sources during operation period
Through the field investigation of the proposed line of Guangzhou Metro Line 6 and the correlation analysis of the subway design data, it is found that the noise source during the operation period is mainly composed of underground section, elevated section and vehicle section.
In the process of underground line operation, the noise sources are mainly the wind pavilion and cooling tower noise in stations and sections, and the noise source intensity is related to factors such as ventilation equipment model, power and noise elimination measures. The noise sources of elevated section are mainly composed of wheel-rail noise, car body radiation noise, motor vehicle traction motor noise and bridge structure noise. The linear motor transportation system is adopted in Metro Line 6, and the wheel-rail noise and motor running noise generated by it are 7dB lower than those of Class A and B vehicles used in Guangzhou Rail Transit 1 and Line 2. When the linear motor is running, the sound level of the train running at a distance of 7.5m from the center line of the railway outer rail is 80dB.
The noise generated by the vehicle depot and comprehensive maintenance base mainly includes the noise generated by vehicle operation, maintenance equipment, inspection line and air compressor.
(5) Analysis of environmental vibration pollution sources during operation period
After the project is completed and put into operation, there will be impact vibration between train wheels and rails, which will be transmitted to the tunnel or bridge foundation through sleepers and ballast beds, and then to the ground, thus having a vibration impact on the surrounding environment [5]. 2.5 Analysis of electromagnetic radiation pollution sources
The influence of subway operation on electromagnetic environment is mainly manifested in the electromagnetic radiation generated by spark discharge generated by catenary system with traction power supply and the electromagnetic radiation generated by high voltage or high current induction in substation. If the line passes near the airport (for example, the airport dedicated block line of Guangzhou Metro Line 3), it is necessary to consider the special requirements of the electromagnetic environment of the airport navigation system.
(6) Ecological environment and urban landscape impact analysis.
The impact of project implementation on ecological environment is mainly manifested in soil erosion, land occupation and vegetation destruction caused by surface excavation and filling during construction, and the impact of tunnel construction on surface and groundwater pollution; The influence of the disturbance and destruction of the construction site on the ground surface on the urban landscape; Influence of traffic corridor operation period on urban landscape coordination.
(7) Environmental impact prediction and analysis
(8) Environmental vibration impact prediction
The scope of environmental vibration assessment is important sensitive points such as schools, hospitals, residential areas and key cultural relics protection units within 60m of the center line of the outer rail on both sides of the line. . At present, there is no mature and universal environmental vibration prediction model for the environmental impact assessment of subway projects in China. Environmental vibration prediction mainly refers to relevant information at home and abroad, the results of environmental impact assessment of subway vibration that has passed the EIA review and foreign research results. Generally, the empirical formula established by experimental statistics or analogy method is used to predict and evaluate the modified vibration environmental impact in combination with the specific technical conditions of subway engineering.
(9) Noise impact prediction
The prediction of acoustic environmental impact mainly depends on the nature and scale of the project, and the existing noise sources with similar boundary conditions are selected for simulation monitoring and investigation; On this basis, combined with the background value of environmental noise in the project area and the design workload, the equivalent continuous A sound level of environmental noise sensitive points on the ground section, on both sides of viaduct road and around the depot during the normal operation of the train is predicted by using the prediction method recommended by Technical Guidelines for Environmental Impact Assessment-Acoustic Environment. According to the engineering characteristics of Metro Line 6, it is suggested to compare and evaluate the linear motor carrier system and the rotary motor carrier system, so as to highlight the performance advantages of the linear motor carrier system.
(B) the impact of the subway on the traffic layout in Guangzhou
(1). Transportation network: it takes only half an hour to get there.
In 2000, after Panyu and Huadu in Guangzhou were evacuated from the urban areas, the urban form changed from the original L-shaped urban form of 40km north and south and 50km east and west to a strip shape of 50km north and south 120km east and west. The basic strategy of urban space development in Guangzhou's overall urban planning is "expanding in the south, optimizing in the north, advancing in the east and connecting in the west". The time and space distance between Guangzhou central city, fringe groups and satellite cities with a population of over 500,000 (except Nansha area) is basically controlled within 30 minutes, and the traffic time between Guangzhou and Foshan, Dongguan and other surrounding areas is basically controlled within 1 hour through the connection with intercity rail transit such as Guangfo Line. Existing operational defects will be improved.
At the same time, it will be included in the development scope of the Pearl River Delta, and overall consideration will greatly meet the travel requirements of residents. At the same time, due to the simultaneous start of several subways, some areas will bear greater traffic pressure in the short term.
(2) The two subways currently in operation still lack organic connection. There are lines 2, 3, 4 and 8 criss-crossing in Haizhu District, especially in the western region, which will greatly ease the traffic pressure in this area. Subway has played an important role in the replacement and adjustment of land functions. The living conditions in this area will be greatly improved, and the economic structure of the urban area will be adjusted accordingly.
(3) At the same time, Haizhu District, especially the western region, will bear greater traffic pressure in a short time due to the simultaneous start of several subway lines. However, the planning and construction department will take these factors into account and minimize the impact. Tianhe district will also face the same situation.
(C) the impact of the subway on the lifestyle of residents
(1) Facilitating residents' travel and strengthening the connection between urban areas and people's flow will help speed up the population flow in the whole urban area and save people's travel time. And reduces the running cost of the whole society.
(2) The change of residents' travel mode choice has affected the market price and overall layout of other local means of transportation, and a new competitive pattern is taking shape, which is ultimately beneficial to the overall interests of our people and society.
(3) The appearance of subway has created a group of subway artists, and subway culture has begun to rise in Guangzhou. People have another way of understanding culture.
The influence of subway on the country
(1) Subway is the embodiment of a country's advanced nature in the transportation field. Our country has started to build a large number of subways, which shows that our country has the ability to apply this technology on a large scale, which is something worthy of our national pride.
(2) It is the realization of fixed investment, so from the perspective of economics, it is an important project to stimulate economic development.
(3) It is conducive to accelerating the population's acceptance of urban culture and realizing urbanization at an early date.
In a word, the construction of Guangzhou subway is not a single-level influence, but a divergent radiation, which has a far-reaching impact on Guangzhou, Guangdong Province and even the whole country. Its impact on us will continue to emerge over time, and we will wait and see.