The year 2020 is destined to be extraordinary, the tourism industry and the restaurant industry have always been closely related, both industries need a huge flow of people and physical consumer groups, but now the epidemic is still very serious in the world, so many tourism and restaurant industry practitioners hope that can be restored as soon as possible, when will it return to normal?
Now, more than half of the country's restaurants have resumed work, but waiting for the catering people, is one after another cold, expected to last a year, a year before it is likely to fully restore the catering industry's former glory, after all, people's psychological level is still very sensitive to the process of accepting the accommodation .
From Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, to Shenzhen, Chengdu, all the catering people, are in the wailing. In the long run, the catering industry will certainly change a lot, nowadays, eating out, has not only just enjoy, but also a kind of righteousness.
A few days ago, according to a takeaway platform big data statistics show that the national catering business resumption rate has exceeded 55%, the arrival of the tide of resumption of work, the demand for meals increased, catering enterprises are also resuming business.
But the reporter learned from various channels, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and many other places have opened the doors of the restaurant but generally encountered the "door can be sparrow" embarrassment.
Some people predict: the near future, a sweeping north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen restaurant "closure wave" may be coming.
Beijing: the worst case scenario may not have a turnaround until next year
March 5, 2020, Beijing held a new crown epidemic prevention and control of the 41st conference, for small restaurants are resuming work one after another, the dine-in business to put forward a more stringent epidemic prevention requirements. According to the reporter's understanding, at present Beijing restaurant dine-in gradually warmed up, Quanjude, Tongheju, Huifeng Dumpling House, Hongbinlou, barbecue meat Wan, barbecue season, Emei Restaurant, Liuquanju, casserole residence and other old-fashioned catering stores are also one after another with a restrictive resumption of the dine-in, but it is still difficult to regain vitality.
Beijing's Gui Street restaurant, photo credit New Beijing News
Beijing restaurant connoisseur Chang Xiaojun told reporters that Beijing's control is currently quite strict, and most of the restaurants that have opened up to dine-in are state-run brands, and some of the old and fast-food restaurants are mainly sell-outs. At the same time, even if open dine-in, consumers are afraid to come to the door to consume, resulting in a number of food and beverage companies still do not dare to resume business.
He believes that as the epidemic is further brought under control, mid-April is an "inflection point" for Beijing's catering industry to open up dine-in again, because the quarantine date for people returning to Beijing at the end of March is over, and catering companies' manpower has been safeguarded. Optimistically, it is possible that most of the catering enterprises can resume dine-in at the beginning of May. But consumers will still need to wait until the outbreak is fully under control to regain consumer confidence.
Beijing's Guijie Hu Da Dining Hall, photo courtesy of Beijing News
And Zhang Handong, a catering investor at Beijing's Jinyuan Hotel, said only about 10 percent of Beijing's restaurants have resumed dine-in, mostly state-run and fast-food chains. And these stores to resume dine-in because they have to follow strict guidelines for food service, coupled with the public consumer confidence is still not restored, so the business situation is very bleak. At the same time, because a large number of conferences and wedding banquets have been postponed and backed out of the booking, it has dealt a great blow to large-scale catering such as hotels and restaurants. He believes that, according to the current control of the epidemic, the operation of banquets may pick up in July and August, but can only do business in September and October, the two months of high demand for banquets. If normal operation can be resumed at the end of the year, it is already a pretty good result. The worst case scenario could be that the tide will not turn until next year.
He added that a group of larger single-store restaurants in Beijing, especially Cantonese restaurants, may be the first to fail, because Cantonese restaurants tend to have higher costs for ingredients, labor and rent, while chain restaurants can carry on for a while, but overall the situation is not optimistic.
In the future, Beijing's restaurants may see a shift toward food processing.
Shanghai: a number of well-known catering stores have been closed down
Recently, the Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association pointed out in its release of the "Shanghai catering service industry resumption of work and production resumption of the work of the market" (second edition): At present, Shanghai's catering service resumption rate of 62.6%, Shanghai Catering and Cooking Industry Association members of the enterprise, the resumption of the formal dining enterprises reached 50%! The resumption rate of mass breakfast enterprises is 80%, and the resumption rate of Chinese fast food and western fast food is 90%.
But, according to Internet rumors, many well-known food and beverage outlets such as Barules, BlackStone, StoneBrewing, Wamin Izakaya, Inkood, Zen
Tsuki Zenki Cutting & Cooking, PokeLab, Morton's Seafood Steakhouse, and Yuan Shi Zu Shabu Shabu have already announced that they have ceased operations. Not only that, some small street food outlets have also posted notices of transfer. Some restaurant connoisseurs believe the wave of closures may continue to spread.
Shanghai, a Cantonese restaurant boss Mr. Liang told reporters that the Shanghai food service resumption of work guidelines are relatively loose, but a resumption of business, water and electricity, materials, labor costs still have to be paid and issued normally, people do not dare to go out to spend money during this period of time, there is no large-scale gatherings in the short term, compared with other industries, the catering industry, the recovery time to be longer.
He believes that people in Shanghai are now more eager to choose takeout than dine-in, and a xiaolongbao store he knows well can now deliver more than 300 xiaolongbao takeouts a day, exceeding the turnover of takeouts before the opening of dine-in. However, some difficult to do takeaway, the area of large food and beverage stores, such as bars, western restaurants, restaurants, because the rent is too high, the cost of resumption of business is too high, etc., will be difficult to hold on, the next will usher in a wave of closure of stores, the Shanghai food and beverage industry may be ushered in a major reshuffle.
He continued, optimistically, the May 1 Golden Week is a turning point for the full resumption of dine-in in Shanghai. Because the Golden Week holiday has been confirmed and the outbreak is under control, a wave of consumer rebound will come to catering outlets if they can survive it.
Guangzhou: expected to return to normal levels ahead of schedule
As early as February 21, Guangzhou districts have been resuming dine-in, but in addition to some of the restaurants with tea markets to restore the usual 3-4% of the turnover, a number of restoration of dine-in restaurant turnover is still less than 30%.
The reporter in the chengjia plaza, Tianhuan Plaza, TaiKoo Hui, HuiFu road food street and other people, tourists "for food" place found that many restaurant attendance rate of less than 3%, and even part of the store still did not start business. Guangzhou dining people are generally faced with the "open difficult, not open also difficult" problem.
A well-known Cantonese restaurant brand founder Mr. Huang believes that the Guangzhou restaurant will be slightly better in March, but still not optimistic. The most important thing is to restore consumer confidence needs time, first of all, to the national epidemic growth number to zero, followed by the country to take the mask, and finally to the start of elementary school, the only way to fully restore the confidence of consumers in Guangzhou, optimistically estimated to be restored to normal levels at least until after May.
Catering connoisseur Mr. Chen said that the next two months, Guangzhou catering industry will usher in a "wave of closures. However, directly affected by the epidemic and the closure, may not be much, but by its subsequent pressure, such as the capital chain breaks, the market consumption power decline, profit shrinkage, and even the rent back and rise, etc., may lead to some of the no brand influence of the small restaurant closure, difficult to transform the large brand part of the store closure of the situation. Heavy marketing, light products, play the concept, speculative fashion "net red store" may be the first to be eliminated.
Miss Cai, who operates Sichuan cuisine in Guangzhou, told reporters that although the dine-in is open, the 400-square-meter store can only sit less than 12 people in accordance with the regulations, and now the turnover is only about 3,000 yuan a day, but every day we have to subsidize the 4,000 yuan of labor, utilities, rent, etc., and so on, and then there's no money to pay the rent next month, you can only stop the business.
But according to the latest news on the official website of the Guangzhou Health Commission this afternoon, Guangzhou, in addition to Yuexiu District, which remains a medium-risk area, the remaining 10 districts are low-risk areas, and according to the division of the "Guidelines for Promoting an Orderly Resumption of Catering Industry in Guangzhou (Trial)", the low-risk areas can provide normal catering services after strict hygiene and epidemic prevention measures have been taken. According to Mr. Chen, a catering connoisseur, this has undoubtedly boosted the confidence of Guangzhou's caterers, who are expected to return to normal business levels ahead of schedule.
Shenzhen: June to resume normal turnover in previous years
February 28, Shenzhen also began to have a restricted resumption of dine-in, but some Shenzhen caterers said that compared to business is not as good as their counterparts in Guangzhou.
According to the reporter's understanding, Shenzhen on the prevention and control level for the medium-risk area of various types of catering units (stores) restricted to carry out the dine-in and private rooms (box) service guidelines include:
Dining staff must be measured before entering the body temperature; customers are required to wear masks; the number of actual dining staff of the lobby table not more than 50% of the usual; each table, each batch of customers dining interval of not less than 10 minutes. Customers seated in isolation, the opposite side of the staggered sitting, the interval distance of not less than 1 meter, fast-food restaurants to implement one person a table; private room (box) smaller, only a table, and may not be a table, and other provisions.
Shenzhen, a shopping plaza restaurant resumed after the dine-in situation, source Shenzhen News Network
In Shenzhen, operating a seafood restaurant, Mr. Deng said that its stores are still not resumed, because seafood category consumption is relatively high, the cost of doing takeaway is also relatively high, resumption of the work, the cost of all aspects of the loss will be further.
He believes that it is necessary to wait until the food and beverage prevention and control measures are appropriately relaxed, in order to be in a position to resume business. According to his understanding, most of the catering enterprises in Shenzhen that have already resumed work have difficulties in restoring their turnover to 30% of the previous level. If this continues, some of the small catering outlets directly affected by the epidemic may be the first to close down, and some of the catering enterprises that have subsequent problems because of the resumption of work may also close down before the end of the epidemic.
And Lin Haiping, chairman of the board of directors of Baheli Haiji, told reporters that Baheli Haiji had already begun resuming work one after another at the end of February, and that its 45 stores were now open for dine-in as required.
At present, consumer enthusiasm has slightly exceeded expectations, and dine-in turnover at most stores has returned to 30 percent of its previous level, while the share of takeout has declined after the resumption of dine-in, and overall turnover has returned to about 45 percent of its previous level
. He expects that the most optimistic until May, Shenzhen dining can return to normal, the Bachanli Haiji combination of dine-in and takeaway business mode, but also in June to return to normal turnover in previous years.
Chengdu: there may be 40% of the catering business can not hold out
Currently, Chengdu is also in the restricted restoration of dine-in, it is understood that in the "low-risk" area, many hot pot restaurants began to restore the dine-in, but to meet the "only open the hall of the original number of seats 50 percent of the The reception volume, hot pot restaurant to take consumers across the table dining space," and other conditions.
Some hot pot restaurants also posted at the door "table seating, limited reception, encourage self-pickup, support takeaway" and other tips, and many restaurants have also developed a table of four people below the dining standard, while customers are also more rigorous, there is less wide range of gatherings or the phenomenon of family dinners.
Chengdu Dalong _ a store to resume dine-in situation, from Chengdu released
But Chengdu restaurant connoisseur Qiu Kehong told reporters that Chengdu restored dine-in restaurant is only 10%, hot pot restaurant attendance rate will be relatively better, but the full count down now to restore dine-in is still to lose money. He believes that consumer confidence is now insufficient, once the store, rent, utilities, labor and other aspects of the cost expenditure is huge.
At the same time, because the cost of epidemic prevention and disinfection of equipment is also quite high, even if the resumption of dine-in, even if you do take-away, most of the catering business is still not enough to make ends meet. He continued, if the current epidemic prevention and control situation, Chengdu catering is likely to July to return to normal, because consumers need to spend nearly a month to restore consumer confidence, change consumption habits, coupled with the level of consumer spending will decline, the next, there may be 40% of the catering business faces the problem of closure.