Last week, A shares in the July financial data and economic data less than expected, recession expectations triggered by the complex environment of the peripheral stock market plunge, showing market resilience, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.77% and 3.02%, respectively. Fund people pointed out that the central bank "interest rate cut" policy is good for economic stabilization, from a medium-term perspective, the current A-share opportunity is greater than the risk.
Counter-cyclical regulation is expected to strengthen
July social financing data released last Monday evening and July economic data released last Wednesday, although less than expected, but the impact on A shares is limited, some funds look forward to the policy counter-cyclical adjustment.
In response to China's social financing increase of 1.01 trillion in July, the expected 1.625 trillion, the previous value of 2.26 trillion, Starstone Investment said that the data is less than expected. In addition to seasonal factors, new RMB loans fell sharply and non-standard financing contracted beyond expectations, is the main reason for the decline, and the deeper reason behind this lies in the weaker demand for corporate loans and the tightening of financial regulation. Starstone Investment believes that fiscal policy, on the one hand, there is room for expansion of special debt, on the other hand, the financial can be increased: 1-7 months of local government special debt can be done after the capital, infrastructure efforts or more active, high-level meeting emphasized the transformation of old districts, cold chain logistics, information networks, such as complementary short-board projects and new infrastructure may be the focus of the direction.
July economic data, Hony Fargo chief economist Du Bin said that the overall data is stable in the weak, the policy to carry out counter-cyclical adjustment of the need to increase. He pointed out that in July, retail sales of consumer goods grew by 7.6%, mainly affected by the overdraft of automobile consumption in June, if you remove the automobile consumption and petroleum commodities affected by the drop in oil prices, the growth rate of consumer goods is still more than 9%, the same as in June, catering and tourism, culture and entertainment and other consumption still maintains a relatively rapid growth. Fixed asset investment as a whole stabilized, including manufacturing investment rebounded, infrastructure investment growth rate downward, the policy effect of local special bonds as the capital of major infrastructure projects has not yet appeared, the growth rate of real estate investment fell slightly, but still maintain faster growth. Comparison beyond market expectations is the decline in industrial value added, only 4.8% growth rate, behind the impact of the decline in export-related industries, supply growth slowed sharply. Star Investment also said that in the context of increasing downward pressure on economic data, "counter-cyclical policy" is expected to strengthen the adjustment.
Stock market without excessive pessimism
It is worth noting that last weekend, investors quickly ushered in the "interest rate cut" good. 17 August, the central bank to deepen the interest rate market-oriented reform, to promote lending interest rates, "the two rails into one", to improve the transmission of interest rates. Track", improve the efficiency of interest rate transmission, promote the reduction of financing costs of the real economy, decided to reform and improve the loan market quotation rate (LPR) formation mechanism. Insiders believe that this move can promote the reduction of real interest rates on loans, LPR reform is equivalent to an asymmetric interest rate cuts, the actual interest rate decline may be less than the effect of a normal interest rate cuts, the broad credit plus is conducive to the stabilization of the economy.
Under the favorable policy, investors' confidence in the economic fundamentals has increased, in fact, fund people believe that from a medium-term point of view, the A-share opportunity is greater than the risk.
ICBC Credit Suisse fund said, taking into account the government's growth stabilization signal is clear, to maintain the judgment that the economic downside risk is controllable remains unchanged. And taking into account the nominal GDP growth rate in the second quarter rebounded compared to the first quarter, while tax cuts and fee reductions have a certain positive impact on corporate profitability, earnings growth is bottoming out in the process of stabilization. Valuation, the current market static valuation is lower than the historical median level. Overseas liquidity is currently in a loose pattern, which will have a positive impact on A-share valuation. In terms of risk appetite, market valuation is expected to be suppressed against the backdrop of the recent increase in uncertainty over external factors. Comprehensively, in the recent market for real estate policy tightening and the dual impact of external factors have been adjusted in the case of the stock market need not be overly pessimistic, the medium-term stock market opportunities are still greater than the risk.
A public fund manager said that the current attractiveness of equity assets has increased significantly. From the fixed income point of view, the risk-free rate there is downward space, but the space is not very large, may be in a longer period of time are hovering in the low interest rate. This is favorable to equity assets, therefore, for fixed income, want to get better returns in the future investment, investment in bonds, enjoy the benefits of stronger equity assets is indispensable. Accordingly, for equity investment, the current is a good time to layout the medium and long term.
(Source: China Securities Journal)
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