Major listed companies in the industry: Conway Century (688426); Dean Diagnostics (300244); Hot scenery creatures (688068); Mingde Biology (002932); Huada Gene (300676); Pyrenees test (300887), etc.
The core data of this paper: COVID-19's prevention and control of change; Transformation mode; Market size of in vitro diagnosis;
"COVID-19" is a thing of the past.
65438. On February 26th, 2022, the Comprehensive Group of Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for Infection in novel coronavirus released and implemented the overall plan for the management of Class B infection in novel coronavirus. Since 2023, the prevention and control measures for Class A infectious diseases stipulated in the Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases in novel coronavirus, People's Republic of China (PRC) have been lifted. Novel coronavirus infection is no longer included in the management of quarantine infectious diseases stipulated in the Frontier Health and Quarantine Law of People's Republic of China (PRC). After the implementation of Class B management, China's response to COVID-19 infection mainly lies in strengthening service and security. The specific direction is: infected people are willing to check and no longer implement isolation measures and social prevention and control.
At the same time, the Comprehensive Group of Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council organized and revised the Prevention and Control Plan for Infection in novel coronavirus (10th Edition). The tenth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan optimizes the detection strategy: only for relevant medical staff, inpatients, old-age care institutions, social welfare institutions and other staff, nurses, serious and high-risk people in the community, etc. For nucleic acid detection, you can also choose the form of antigen detection. From the convenience point of view, COVID-19 antigen testing is more convenient for residents to obtain, so the demand for nucleic acid testing in COVID-19 may theoretically drop to zero, indicating that COVID-19 nucleic acid testing has gradually withdrawn from the stage of China.
Where will COVID-19's nucleic acid and antigen detection go?
COVID-19 residents' demand for nucleic acid testing is rapidly declining, and COVID-19's nucleic acid testing has become an "abandoned child of the times", and its development prospect is not good. Enterprises that participate in the production of nucleic acid detection kits in COVID-19 and follow-up tests in COVID-19 are generally enterprises with IVD (in vitro diagnosis) industry qualifications. Most of these enterprises had other businesses in IVD besides COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing Company before they started their nucleic acid testing business in COVID-19. There is still room for such an enterprise to develop. However, some enterprises were established three years after the outbreak, especially those that only provided nucleic acid testing services in COVID-19. Relatively speaking, the development prospects of such enterprises are slightly embarrassing.
Moreover, from the current market research, most people have no more independent will and demand for antigen and nucleic acid detection. With reference to the global opening-up process, the demand for antigens in the subsequent mass market is also decreasing, and there may not be a near future market for China COVID-19 antigen test kit.
So, is there an inflection point in the development of nucleic acid and antigen detection enterprises in COVID-19? COVID-19 nucleic acid/antigen testing products and services originally provided by such enterprises have lost their original high value after the implementation of "B and B tubes" infected by COVID-19 in China, and the demand in the mass market has dropped sharply. For the sustainable development of enterprises, enterprises should consider business extension or strategic adjustment in other original businesses.
In terms of market division, some COVID-19 nucleic acid detection enterprises (referring to kit manufacturers and nucleic acid detection service providers) and some enterprises that have developed COVID-19 antigen self-test products are in business with other subdivisions of IVD. Enterprises can decide whether to continue to deepen the business of other sub-sectors or turn to other new fields, such as the detection of monkeypox virus antigen or its nucleic acid, through strategic adjustment. In the market, enterprises can consider applying for international (German BfArM, EU Health and Safety Committee, etc. ) Investigate overseas markets, find out the certification after the market layout is feasible, and then export the original inventory overseas.
It is still difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to develop export business for IVD industry. According to the evaluation of internationally renowned vertical research institutions in the medical industry
According to MedTech's data, from 20 15 to 202 1, the global market scale of IVD industry is also in the process of continuous growth. Except for the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020-202 1, the growth rate of market scale in other time periods fluctuated around 5%. And base on that assessment
According to MedTech's research results on the global IVD industry, by 2028, the market size of the global IVD industry will exceed 1 1000 billion US dollars, indicating that the global IVD industry still has room for growth. If there are large enterprises participating in IVD business besides the nucleic acid/antigen testing business in COVID-19, they can consider increasing their investment in R&D to increase their share in the global IVD market.
Where can the "retirement" of nucleic acid kiosks be "rehired"?
In the past three years, the COVID-19 epidemic (COVID-19 infection) swept the world, which brought not only COVID-19 nucleic acid/antigen detection, but also its supporting equipment-nucleic acid kiosk to the nouveau riche industry. However, with the "end" of the nucleic acid detection industry in COVID-19, the nucleic acid kiosks in its supporting facilities have also stepped into retirement, and the original nucleic acid kiosks have been neglected. Many people report that nucleic acid kiosks occupy public space, but are not used by the community. From the perspective of maximizing industrial resources, nucleic acid kiosks may contribute to community medical care and convenience services after retirement, and its transformation focuses on convenience medical examination services and convenience medical services.
Can "electronic sentry" have a way out?
Electronic sentry has also become a member of the "abandoned children of the times". During the period of strictly controlling the epidemic in COVID-19, electronic sentry played an important role in first-and second-tier cities, helping residents to screen foreigners and people with nucleic acid problems. However, with the change of the state's prevention and control mechanism in COVID-19, residential areas no longer need to check the negative proof of nucleic acid to enter, which makes the electronic sentries in many residential areas "useless".
In fact, the electronic sentry is a kind of equipment that can upgrade and iterate the functions of the electronic sentry through artificial intelligence technology, which covers the verification function of the original negative proof of nucleic acid, and adds effective functions such as face recognition and security proofreading to ensure the personal safety of residents in the community, such as access control, personnel management, intelligent monitoring and so on. However, during the transformation of electronic sentries, some second-hand electronic sentries were bought and sold, but there are also some risks of storing personal privacy information. In addition to updating its functions, the electronic sentry also needs to protect the personal information security of residents under the regulation and supervision of the government.
"Abandoning the children of the times" depends on understanding the market and formulating a reasonable path.
"The outcast of the times" is a blessing in misfortune in the changes of the times. It is necessary to adjust the business model and strategic direction as soon as possible to adapt to the rapid changes in the market. We should not only consider the feasibility of laying out a certain market, but also consider the transformation path. A reasonable transformation path will ensure that the costs and consumption borne by enterprises on the transformation path are minimized and their own resources are reasonably utilized.
For more research and analysis on this industry, please refer to Foresight Industry Research Institute's Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategy Planning of Nucleic Acid Detection Industry in China and Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategy Planning of IVD Industry in China.