In July, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities has already reflected the policy loosening effect, which has increased substantially year-on-year. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Chengdu reached a new high of nearly 10.
The insiders believe that the loosening of the second-hand housing guidance price policy is of greater significance in sending a signal to the market to activate the liquidity of second-hand housing, thus driving more urban market expectations and restoring home ownership confidence, which has become a booster for the recovery of the second-hand housing market to a certain extent. It is expected that the second-hand housing market will maintain a relatively strong recovery momentum in the future, and the second-hand housing market in core cities will pick up before new houses.
The implementation of the second-hand housing guidance price is different.
Second-hand housing guidance price system, that is, by giving the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential areas, control the price of second-hand housing. Regardless of the actual transaction price of the house, the bank can only calculate the loan amount of the second-hand house according to the upper limit of the guiding price of the second-hand house. After the implementation of the second-hand housing guidance price policy in many places, the scale of second-hand housing transactions has fallen sharply.
Taking Shenzhen and Shanghai as examples, since the implementation of the second-hand housing guidance price, the second-hand housing market has obviously turned cold. According to the data of Shenzhen real estate information platform, in February this year (the first anniversary of the introduction of second-hand housing guidance price), 872 sets of second-hand housing transactions were completed in Shenzhen, down 76.53% year-on-year, and the monthly transaction volume fell below the 1000-set mark for the first time, setting a new low of nearly 15. According to the statistics of Ke Rui Research Center, Shanghai began to check the housing price in July last year, and the number of second-hand houses sold in that month was less than 24,000, down 16% from the previous month. Up to now, the number of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai has been declining for 12 months, and it has been lower than10.5 million sets for many months.
At the beginning of July, Xi 'an's first "official announcement" suspended the release of second-hand housing guidance prices. Since then, according to the statistics of Kerry Research Center, up to now, in addition to Shanghai and Shenzhen, 13 cities have cancelled or relaxed this policy. This 13 city includes Xi 'an, Chengdu, Ningbo, Shaoxing, Sanya, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Jinhua, Wenzhou, Hefei, Quzhou, Beijing and Wuxi.
Regarding whether the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Xi 'an has been cancelled, the relevant staff of Xi 'an Housing and Construction Bureau responded to the media that in order to support the demand for rigid and improved housing and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, Xi issued the Notice on Issues Related to Adjusting Commodity Housing Trading Policies on May 28, which mentioned promoting the circulation of second-hand housing.
At present, the reference price is suspended, and some intermediary platforms can respect the seller's wishes to list the second-hand housing price when displaying the second-hand housing price, or they can list it with reference to the transaction reference price.
At the end of March, in response to the rumor that the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen will be adjusted, Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau said: "The release of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions is to implement the work arrangement of Shenzhen real estate regulation and control, according to the" Notice of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau on Establishing the Release Mechanism of Second-hand Housing Transactions Reference Price ".Published regularly. We will adjust the price according to the regulatory requirements and market conditions, and publish it on official online platforms such as official website of Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau and WeChat official account in the near future. "
After investigation by Ke Rui Research Center, it is pointed out that there are obvious differences in the implementation of the second-hand housing guidance price system in cities last year. For example, the loosening of Chengdu and Ningbo is mainly manifested in the re-listing of high-priced houses, and bank lending is no longer strictly in accordance with the guidance price; The prices of listed houses in Guangzhou and Dongguan are limited by the guidance price, but the actual transaction and bank lending are basically not affected by the guidance price. The guiding price of second-hand houses in some cities is "in name only". For example, the guidance prices in Beijing and Wuxi are on the high side, and the guidance prices of many projects are even higher than the owner's listing price 1000 yuan/square meter; Wenzhou, Hefei and other four cities have not issued detailed implementation rules.
The volume of transactions in many places reflects the loosening effect
"In the past, the guiding price of second-hand housing was directly linked to the credit line and liquidity expectation, so as to weaken the buyers' ability to pay and their confidence in home ownership, and thus adjust the transaction volume, price and transaction structure. Ding Zuyu, executive director of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that the loosening of the guiding price of second-hand housing is of greater significance in sending a signal to the market to activate the liquidity of second-hand housing, thus driving more urban market expectations and restoring home ownership confidence, which has become a booster for the recovery of the second-hand housing market to a certain extent. The scale of second-hand housing transactions in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Chengdu has shown the influence of the loosening effect, and the market has gradually recovered from the bottom.
According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, the transaction area of second-hand houses in Suzhou increased by 6 1% in the 29th week (7.1~ 7.17) and 36% in the 30th week (7. 18 ~ 7.24). The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen and Foshan has gradually bottomed out. In the 29th week, the transaction area of second-hand houses only decreased slightly by 7% year-on-year, and in the 30th week, Foshan increased by 8% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 14 hot cities monitored by Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute was about 72,000 sets in July, down 5.5% from the previous month, and rose slightly by 2.3% after a continuous decline of 13 months. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Chengdu exceeded 6.5438+0.7 million sets, setting a record since June 2065.438+02.
Pan Yuyu, a researcher at Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the main reason for the surge in second-hand housing transactions in Chengdu is the recovery of confidence in buying houses brought about by major favorable policies, among which the relaxation of the guiding price of second-hand housing is one of the favorable policies.
According to the statistics of RealData, the transaction volume index of second-hand houses in Shell 50 City in July was 40, slightly higher than last month and 39 higher than the same period last year, which was the first time since May last year. Among them, the transaction index of nearly 50% cities such as Dongguan, Langfang, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin increased compared with last month, and the transaction index of over 60% cities such as Ningbo, Taiyuan, Zhengzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou exceeded the same period last year.
Regarding the future market trend, Ding Zuyu believes that based on the linkage effect of second-hand housing, only by first repairing the liquidity of second-hand housing can the demand for second-hand housing be fully released. It is expected that the second-hand housing market will still maintain a relatively strong recovery momentum in the future, and the second-hand housing market in core cities will pick up before new houses. With the improvement of the mobility and activity of the second-hand housing market, it will also have a positive effect on the confidence of the new housing market.