2. From the consumer market, it is difficult to increase the total consumption of liquor, but China takes the Japanese road, and consumption upgrading and consumption stratification-high-end and sub-high-end liquor benefits.
3. From the perspective of industry competition, the oligopoly of high-end liquor is close to monopoly, and the competition of sub-high-end, mid-end and low-end is red, and the concentration begins to increase.
4. From the perspective of pricing power, it mainly lies in brand and channel-pricing power.
I. Product Features
Summarize the characteristics of liquor industry from three dimensions of consumer goods research framework: brand, channel and product. Liquor industry mainly has the following characteristics:
1, single category, difficult to innovate.
For consumer goods, the typical growth path is cross-category extension. For example, Master Kong and Nestle have achieved leap-forward development through category innovation. However, unlike other catering sub-industries, it is difficult to achieve category innovation of liquor, which has the characteristics of "single category and many brands". Therefore, liquor enterprises usually adopt the structure of multiple product lines to expand the market. For example, Yanghe Blue Classic adopts a series of brand combinations across price bands, and Maotai adopts a single dominant product model, relying on brand pull to achieve full coverage of high-end products nationwide.
2. The liquor industry has a huge market capacity.
According to statistics, at present, the market scale of domestic liquor industry exceeds 600 billion RMB, ranking first in the food and beverage sector, and the total market value of liquor exceeds one trillion, accounting for 55% of the whole sector. In 20 16, the output of China liquor was135,836 kiloliters, up by 3.23% year-on-year, and the sales income was 6125.74 million yuan, up by 10.07% year-on-year.
3. The distribution of liquor is regional (dispersed), and there are many local liquor enterprises.
The liquor industry has a huge market capacity, but there are a large number of production enterprises. According to the incomplete statistics of Liquor Industry Association, there are about 20,000 liquor production enterprises in China at present, but there are only 1.5 million enterprises on the scale. In addition, different geographical regions have different preferences for liquor culture, taste and brand, which leads to obvious market decentralization and low market concentration. This dispersion is mainly reflected in two aspects, one is the dispersion of industry income, and the other is the dispersion of regional distribution.
First of all, from the perspective of revenue scale, the revenue of the top five liquor listed companies only accounted for 15.49% of the industry 20 16 years ago, of which Maotai and Wuliangye only had 6.34% and 2.8 1% market share respectively. In contrast, the CR5 of beer industry has reached 72. 13%, which has resource advantages. In terms of geographical distribution, large-scale liquor production enterprises are mainly concentrated in several provinces. There are more than 200 large-scale liquor enterprises in Shandong and Sichuan, more than 60 liquor enterprises in Guizhou, Anhui, Hubei and Northeast provinces, and no more than 20 liquor enterprises in Hunan, Zhejiang and other provinces.
4. The price elasticity of different grades of wine is high.
The promotion mode and channel marketing elements of liquor with different price points have their own characteristics, and whether the product positioning and marketing mode can match is the key index to measure the success of product operation. The core element of high-end liquor operation is brand power, the second high-end is brand influence and marketing channel ability, the middle and high-end is terminal control and marketing promotion ability, and the middle and low-end is brand awareness and network distribution ability.
The gross profit margin of liquor industry is generally high, especially for high-end brand liquor enterprises: according to statistics, the average gross profit margin of liquor industry in 20 16 years was 7 1%, and the net profit margin was 29%. In contrast, the gross profit margin of the beer industry is only about 36%, and the net profit margin is only 4%, which is much lower than the former. Under the advantage of high gross profit, the price space of liquor is larger and the profit elasticity is higher, which determines that the channel profit of liquor allows multi-level distribution. Agents buy out brands+traditional distribution+intensive distribution+group purchase+e-commerce, and multiple channels coexist, which can be intercepted through channels and terminals.
5. It has the attributes of cultural consumption and drinking consumption, and has a high correlation with catering.
Liquor is an industry with strong cultural stickiness, and its consumption factors such as social etiquette and cultural inheritance have surpassed the value of the product itself. Therefore, liquor enterprises will dig more and shape their own unique brand image in marketing, and the appeal of the brand mainly includes history, tradition, culture and technology.
Different from the consumption characteristics of other consumer goods, the consumption scene of liquor contains its unique social and other attributes. Since the central government issued relevant policies to restrict the consumption in Sangong places, the demand for government consumption of liquor has been fully squeezed. At this stage, the consumption scenarios of liquor mainly include the following:
1) Social consumption: mainly including business banquets of enterprises and institutions, daily communication of residents, wedding banquets and funeral expenses;
2) Gift consumption: the needs of residents during festivals or when people ask for gifts daily;
3) Investment and consumption: The preservation ability of liquor, especially high-end liquor, brings investment demand.
The special social, gift, investment and consumption attributes of liquor bring relatively unique "rigidity" to the demand of liquor. In a sense, liquor is an indispensable product in a series of social activities such as economic development and interpersonal communication.
Second, the consumer market
1, beer and wine have little substitution for liquor, and the market is self-sufficient.
According to WHO data, at present, in China's alcohol consumption structure, spirits represented by liquor account for 24.6%, while beer and red wine account for 7 1.7% and 3.7% respectively. Considering the height of liquor, liquor is still the most important part of domestic liquor consumption, but at present beer and red wine have little substitution for liquor.
China liquor is mainly self-sufficient in China, and the proportion of export and import in domestic production is extremely low. Straight flush data shows that in 20 18 years, China's liquor export volume was17150,000 liters, and its import volume was 2.63 million liters, while China's liquor output was 87 10/00,000 liters in the same period, and the proportion of liquor export volume and import volume to China's liquor output was 0.2% and 0.03% respectively.
2. The consumption structure has changed: the consumption of Sangong has dropped sharply, and mass consumption has become the mainstream.
After 20 13-20 14 years of in-depth adjustment, some disadvantages accumulated by golden decade have been eliminated. An obvious change is that the consumption structure has changed. At present, the consumption structure of high-end liquor in China is mainly composed of personal consumption and business consumption. In the absence of major changes in the economic situation, the industry will maintain long-term and stable development.
Take Maotai, a leading liquor manufacturer in China, as an example. After restricting the consumption of the three fairs, the consumption proportion of the party, government and army has been reduced to a very small proportion. During the two sessions from 2065438 to March 2006, Chairman Yuan Renguo publicly stated that the proportion of official consumption of Maotai liquor had dropped to 1%. However, the sales of Moutai did not decline because of the sharp decline in the consumption of Sangong. Business consumption and personal consumption have become the main support of the company's performance. After experiencing deep repression, consumption began to rebound strongly, effectively taking over the market space left by government consumption.
3. Aging is difficult to support the increase of total consumption of liquor.
It is predicted that the birth population and birth rate in China will remain low in the future, and the aging trend of population structure is obvious, which is difficult to support the increase of total liquor consumption.
In 20 16, the second child was fully opened, and the population born in China increased significantly in that year. However, the birth rate in China began to decline from 20 17, and the newborn population in 20 1962 was the lowest since 20 1962. It is estimated that the number of births in 20 16548 will hit a record low. There are two main reasons for the decline in the birth population: first, the high cost of childbirth makes people unwilling to have children; Second, due to the strict implementation of family planning, the number of births has decreased since the 1990s, which will lead to a decline in the number of marriageable people and children for a long time to come. At the same time, China's population structure has accelerated into aging, and the proportion of people over 65 years old has increased from 9.4% in 20 12 to 1 1.4% in 20 17 years, and this trend will be further accelerated with the decrease of birth population. Because the consumption of liquor is mainly young and middle-aged, with the decrease of birth population and the aging of population structure, the total consumption of liquor will be difficult to improve in the long run.
4, consumption upgrading, consumption stratification
Different from about 20 1 1, at present, China's economic development has gradually switched from investment-driven to household consumption-driven, and the economic growth rate has entered a shift period; Residents' consumption undertakes public consumption and investment and becomes a booster to promote high-quality economic growth. Residents' income continues to divide, and overall consumption has gradually entered a new era of consumption stratification from the big wave of consumption upgrading.
The core background of the price increase of 20 19 liquor is wealth differentiation and consumption stratification, with the focus on marginal pricing. The pricing logic of high-end liquor is marginal pricing. The high-end liquor represented by Maotai is mainly concentrated in high-end consumer groups, and only a few people affect the pricing. Similarly, the upward price of Maotai has opened up the price space of the industry, and the price increase has been transmitted to high-end and sub-high-end, but the economic background is wealth differentiation and consumption stratification, and the investment and collection attributes continue to be prominent.
Third, industry supply.
1, the policy (consumption tax) has great influence.
In terms of policy, consumption tax policy is one of the main influencing factors. In terms of industry policy, the adjustment of consumption tax policy after market operation has great influence on the profitability of liquor enterprises and the prosperity of the industry. Consumption tax in liquor industry is one of the most important taxes in liquor industry, which combines quantitative quota with ad valorem rate.
Historically, the adjustment of consumption tax policy will have an impact on the prosperity of liquor industry. The collection method of liquor consumption tax is also constantly improving and becoming more and more strict. Looking back at the cyclical fluctuation of liquor industry, the major adjustment of consumption tax policy will have a greater impact on the prosperity of the industry. The most representative is that during the second industry adjustment of 1998-2003, the new liquor consumption tax policy of 200 1 adjusted the taxation method of liquor from ad valorem rate to a combination of ad valorem rate and ad valorem rate, which increased the consumption tax burden of liquor industry. High-end liquor brands have strong bargaining power, which can transfer the influence of consumption tax increase to channels and consumers, and the collection of ad valorem rate has little influence on high-priced liquor, which is certain.
2. The supply of famous wine is limited by micro-capacity.
The supply of liquor, especially famous liquor, is limited by micro-capabilities, mainly reflected in:
(1) limitation of production cycle: the production cycle of liquor is relatively long. Of course, the production process of different flavor liquors is different, which leads to different production cycles of different flavor liquors. The production cycle of base liquor in general maotai-flavor liquor technology is the longest, and the limitation of production cycle will also bring the capacity limitation of famous liquor.
(2) Limitation on the yield of high-quality wine: The so-called yield is the yield of 50% alcohol per unit grain in a specific production environment. The yield of high-quality wine can be improved through the improvement of production technology, thus increasing the supply capacity of famous wine.
Taking the production technology of Kweichow Moutai as an example, the production cycle of Maotai-flavor liquor is as long as 6 years. The production technology of Maotai-flavor liquor is characterized by "three highs and three lengths", which means that the production technology of Maotai-flavor liquor is high-temperature koji-making, high-temperature stacking fermentation and high-temperature distilled liquor; "Three long" refers to the long production cycle of Maotai-flavor liquor base liquor, the long storage time of Daqu and the long time of Maotai-flavor liquor base liquor. Maotai Daqu can be stored for half a year before it can be used for koji-making production, which is 3-4 months longer than other liquors. It takes one year to make koji and store it, one year to make wine and more than three years to blend it. It needs to be stored for another year after blending, which takes a total of six years. In this way, the actual supply of Moutai will be strictly limited by the production cycle and the upper limit of base wine production in the production process.
3. The promotion of industry concentration is the general trend.
In recent twenty years, China liquor industry has experienced four typical development stages. Among them, from 65438 to 0998 to 2003, the liquor industry was in a period of structural adjustment due to political repression; From 2003 to 2065438+02, with the progress of social economy and the development of the industry itself, the output and price increased rapidly, which was the golden development period of liquor industry; During the period of 20 13-20 15, the whole industry entered the period of deep adjustment, and the liquor industry entered the period of intensified differentiation from 20 15.
The proportion of the five major industries is only 18%, and the improvement of industry concentration is a general trend. According to the data of China Liquor Association, there are currently more than 20,000 liquor production enterprises in China, but there are less than 1.500 enterprises above designated size. At the same time, different regions have different requirements for liquor culture, taste and mouthfeel, which leads to obvious market dispersion and low market concentration. At present, the market share of the top five domestic liquor brands is about 18%, while the top five foreign liquor brands account for about 66%, so there is still much room for improvement in concentration. In recent years, due to the trend of consumption upgrading, although the total consumption of liquor has decreased, the sales of high-end head enterprises have increased. It is expected that the industry differentiation will continue in the future, and the concentration of liquor is expected to be further improved.
4. The total production and sales of liquor decreased, the differentiation of liquor enterprises intensified and profits increased.
Liquor production has entered the downward stage of production and marketing. At this stage, the macroeconomic growth rate has declined, the GDP growth rate has remained at 6.5%-7%, and the investment activity has declined. From the industrial background, China's liquor production has entered the downward stage of total production and sales, and the liquor output has dropped from 20 1358 kiloliters in 20 18 to 20 17 kiloliters, and further dropped to 6.35 million kiloliters in 20 19+00.
The price reduction of high-grade wine stopped and a new round of price increase cycle began. At the same time, the gradual transformation of China's economic structure, the increased contribution of consumption to GDP, the rapid increase of per capita income of residents and the increase of middle-and high-income people have brought new impetus to the recovery of high-end liquor consumption. The price reduction of high-end liquor stopped and a new round of price increase cycle began. In August of 20 15, the ex-factory price of 52-degree Wuliangye (Wupu) was adjusted from 609 yuan per bottle to 659 yuan. In the same month, the terminal price of Tian Fei Maotai was adjusted from 1099 yuan to 1 199 yuan, with an increase of nearly 10%. 2065438+In March 2006, Wuliangye once again announced the restoration of the ordinary ex-factory price to 679 yuan. 201may 6, the price of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD co., ltd rose 15%. After the price increase, the retail price of 38-degree National pits 1573 China flavor 1888 yuan, and the group purchase price 1450 yuan. 52 Degrees National pits 1573 The retail price of China flavor is 2588 yuan, and the group purchase price is 1980 yuan. In July, 20 16, the price of a batch of Maotai rose from 850 yuan to 900 yuan, and rose to 965 yuan again in August of that year. Since then, the price of a batch of 20 19 maotai has exceeded 2000 yuan.
Industry differentiation intensifies, leading enterprises squeeze growth. The overall scale of the industry has declined, and the competition in the stock market has intensified. National famous wines began to accelerate the all-round market sinking of brands, products, channels and organizations, which greatly squeezed the living space of large regional brands in China. Some small and medium-sized wine enterprises withdrew from the market or were acquired by big wine enterprises, and the market share of leading enterprises gradually expanded. Liquor enterprises above designated size decreased from 1563 in 20 15 years to 1445 in 20 18 years.
Although the overall sales scale of liquor industry has declined, the increase and concentration of leading prices have increased, and the overall profitability of the industry has improved. Due to the price increase and concentration of high-end liquor, the total profit of liquor enterprises above designated size increased from 79.7 billion yuan in 20 16 to 20 125 100 billion yuan in 20 18, and the profit growth rate returned to double digits, with year-on-year growth rates of 20 17 and 20/00 respectively.
Fourth, the industry competition pattern.
Consumption upgrading is rapidly fermenting in the liquor industry, and the trend of high-end liquor is obvious. The growth rate of sub-high-end and above liquor is obviously faster than that of low-end liquor. Under the background of declining macroeconomic growth and aging population structure, it is expected that the total consumption of liquor in China will decrease steadily. Although the market share of high-end and sub-high-end liquor products is not as good as that of high-end and low-end products at present, high-end liquor has more development potential in the future, mainly because:
First, liquor has strong social and face attributes, especially high-end famous wines, which are extremely scarce and irreplaceable;
Second, with the upgrading of domestic consumption, the competitive advantage of high-end liquor in quality and brand will become increasingly prominent;
Third, high-end liquor has more collection value and gift-giving value, and is more favored by liquor lovers.
Specifically:
High-end liquor: Due to the rise of the middle class in China and the improvement of residents' purchasing power, the high-end liquor industry in China is in a state of recovery, with the government consumption dropping obviously and personal consumption rising. And because the high-end liquor on the market is still in short supply, it is expected that the prosperity of this round of high-end liquor will last for a long time and develop healthily, and there is still room for growth in the high-end market. It is predicted that in the next 3-5 years, the compound growth rate of high-end liquor scale in China will remain at around 20%.
Sub-high-end liquor: due to the limitation of production capacity and production cycle, the tight supply pattern is difficult to improve quickly, and sub-high-end liquor will take over some consumer groups of high-end liquor; At the same time, under the action of consumption upgrading, the consumption level of some mid-range wine consumers will gradually upgrade to the second high-end price band. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that there will still be considerable room for growth of sub-high-end liquor in the future. It is estimated that in the next 3-5 years, the growth rate of sub-high-end liquor will also remain above 10%.
Low-end liquor: At present, the low-end liquor market in China liquor industry accounts for a relatively high proportion. It is estimated that the sales volume will account for more than 80% and the sales volume will reach 40%. However, with the overall consumption upgrading of the industry and the squeeze growth under the downward trend of stocks, the market space of low-end liquor will shrink as a whole.
After the in-depth adjustment of 20 13-20 14, the brand structure of liquor industry was further clarified. Tian Fei Maotai, Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 are the main first-line high-end liquors, occupying an absolutely strong position; The second high-end liquor is mainly national famous liquor, including Jiannanchun, Langjiu, Fang Shuijing, Fenjiu, Tuopai Shede, Jiugui Liquor and Yanghe. Local strong brand liquor is basically composed of local leading enterprises, including Gu Jing distillery and Kouzijiao.
The competition pattern of different grades of liquor is completely different, and the more high-end the competition pattern, the more stable it is.
At present, the domestic high-end liquor market is basically oligopoly, and it is difficult for new brands to enter, which is the "best track" for liquor industry;
The competitive products of sub-high-end liquor are mainly national famous liquor, and the varieties are richer than high-end liquor. It is difficult for local liquor to enter the secondary high-end liquor and compete with the existing secondary high-end liquor, but there is still some room for entry;
Local strong brands of liquor are mainly local leading enterprises, including Kouzijiao and Laobaigan. With the base camp market as the main source of income, it has strong competitiveness in the base camp market, and its competitors are mainly local liquor companies.
1, high-end liquor: oligopoly formed by market competition.
Historically, the competition pattern of high-end liquor has mainly changed in three rounds. In this process, the concentration of leading enterprises has been continuously improved, and finally an oligopoly pattern has been formed:
The first round of changes was from 2000 to 2007, which was mainly affected by the specific consumption tax, and the industry made great efforts to the high-end, and high-end brands flooded;
The second round of changes was from 2008 to 20 12, mainly driven by political and business consumption, and the price of high-end liquor kept breaking through the ceiling, gradually forming a monopoly competition stage for a few enterprises;
The third round mainly started from 20 12. Due to the restriction of the three public policies, high-end liquor entered the adjustment period, and high-end leading enterprises formed an oligopoly position.
High-end liquor has high barriers, forming an oligopoly pattern represented by Mao. At present, high-end liquor is mainly represented by Tian Fei Maotai, Wuliangye, Guojiao 1573, plus a small amount of Dream Blue and internal reference. High-end liquor has profound historical and cultural heritage, high brand value and strong scarcity. Because of this, the brand barriers in the high-end liquor market are high, and it is difficult for general liquor brands to enter. At present, the market position of high-end liquor has been basically determined and solidified in the hearts of consumers, and the existing oligopoly pattern of high-end liquor market will be more stable.
Benefiting from the upgrading of consumption, the demand for high-end liquor has increased, and the price has continued to rise due to insufficient supply. Starting from 20 12, the liquor industry has undergone deep adjustment, and after several years of dormancy and adjustment, the consumption of the three fairs has basically been cleared up. Under the trend of consumption upgrading, the demand for high-end and sub-high-end liquor has increased with the rapid rise of private consumption. The high-end liquor represented by Maowulu has almost strict requirements on brewing technology, liquor yield and storage time, which fundamentally determines that the release of high-end liquor output is an extremely slow process. Since 20 15, the shortage of supply has brought about a continuous increase in prices.
2. Sub-high-end liquor: The competition pattern is changeable, and the market scale has room for improvement.
The price of high-end liquor has gone up, which makes the price-performance ratio of sub-high-end liquor outstanding. With the continuous improvement of industry prosperity, the wholesale price of high-end liquor continues to rise. However, the price band of sub-high-end liquor dropped sharply during the industry adjustment period, far from reaching the high point of the industry boom in 20 12 years. At present, the whole price band of sub-high-end liquor is basically stable in the price range of 300-600 yuan, which further highlights the cost-effective advantage of sub-high-end liquor and opens up the upside space of sub-high-end liquor prices.
With the upgrading of consumption, some mid-range liquor consumers will gradually upgrade to the secondary high-end price band. Since 20 13, the price of second-class high-end liquor has mostly fallen. In 20 18, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 63% compared with 20 12. The proportion of primary and secondary high-end liquor prices in the per capita disposable income of urban residents decreased, and the relative purchasing power increased significantly.
3. Low-end wine: There is no pricing power and the price remains low.
Because there are many homogeneous competing products in middle and low-grade wines, the competition is fierce and there is no pricing power. Low-end consumers are sensitive to prices, so they can't blindly raise prices, but only compete at low prices. From 20 15, the price of high-end liquor began to increase, and the price went up all the way, but the price of low-end liquor could not increase, and the average price remained at around 150 yuan.