It took only 48 hours from "lack of food" to "substitution"
As early as February 4th, due to the interruption of the supply chain caused by the COVID-19 epidemic, Hyundai Motor decided to gradually suspend production in its Korean factory from that day on, thus becoming the first vehicle manufacturer to suspend production outside China.
However, this is not the only case.
According to Bloomberg News, about 800 parts of Nissan are produced in Hubei and supplied to the world. If it is unable to resume work, Nissan may face a serious shortage of parts and a large-scale factory shutdown. Previously, Nissan had suspended its production line in Kyushu, southwest Japan, on February 14 and 17, respectively.
Subsequently, GM's South Korean business Kia Motors and Fiat Chrysler Automobile Company (FCA) supplier factories in Italy and Serbia also had to suspend operations due to the failure of parts supply.
But up to now, no one can guarantee that Bosch has come together. When will the component giants such as ZF, Valeo, Ambofo, Webasto, Visteon and Faurecia, as well as many domestic Hubei component companies, truly resume their work in an all-round way, and how long will the above-mentioned car companies facing the risk of supply interruption have to wait?
At the same time, in a recent industry survey report on the current situation of the automobile industry, even in enterprises that have resumed work, only 23% of factory employees have reached more than 80% due to the epidemic, and the capacity recovery rate is mainly maintained in the range of 50%-80%. More than 50% of the participants think that the recovery time of their factory capacity needs 1 month.
In this case, more overseas automakers have to "find another way".
Llamasoft, a supply chain analysis company that provides consulting services for Detroit's three major automakers, Toyota and hundreds of other companies, revealed that about 70%-80% of customers were affected by the epidemic and have received a large number of calls and requests from customers. The most critical point is how to select alternative suppliers in a short time and find out the cost impact.
Just a few days ago, Llamasoft helped a vehicle manufacturer find a replacement supplier for brake pads within 48 hours, and airlifted the parts, which were enough for the company to support the surrounding production.
According to the United Auto Workers' Union, in order to avoid the shortage of parts produced by its trucks in North America, GM chose to fly parts by air. At the same time, FCA also indicated that it is looking for alternative suppliers. Toyota motor and parts suppliers Dana and Amber have become special working groups to pay close attention to the development of the epidemic.
Image source: F-TECH
Earlier, F-TECH, which supplies brake pedals for Honda CR-V, announced that it would transfer the production capacity of the Wuhan factory to the Philippine factory. According to its plan, if the epidemic spreads, it may transfer more production capacity.
How to live is the key.
However, more SMEs are worried about how to survive now than whether they will be replaced.
Undoubtedly, the epidemic has disrupted the rhythm of the global automobile industry chain and completely obliterated the glimmer of hope brought by the slight recovery in the fourth quarter of 20 19.
Recently, Moody's Investment Services, an international credit rating agency, lowered its global auto sales forecast for 2020. It is estimated that global automobile sales will drop from 90.3 million to 88 million in 2020, with an estimated decline of 2.5%, compared with 0.9% before. As for the gap of more than 2 million vehicles, Moody's believes that the biggest variable still comes from the China market.
Not only Moody's, but also many consulting companies, even China Automobile Industry Association, Automobile Association, vehicle and parts enterprises have lowered their expectations in 2020.
The global economic downturn and the continuous decline of the automobile market have made the epidemic worse. Senior analyst of Gaspar Automotive Research Institute believes that for parts enterprises, especially small and medium-sized parts enterprises, under the background of weak automobile market in recent two years, the epidemic will continue to aggravate the decline of their short-term exports and the purchasing demand of domestic automobile enterprises, and therefore face huge liquidity risks and huge survival pressure.
However, as Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the Association, called for, the epidemic situation is not an opportunity for enterprises to survive the fittest, a large-scale closure, or a huge impact on the national economy. The survival of the fittest in the industry needs to return to market competition, not epidemic situation.
In order to help many small and medium-sized enterprises tide over the difficulties, up to now, governments all over the country have successively issued relevant policies. For example, the Ten Policy Opinions on Coping with Pneumonia in novel coronavirus and Supporting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises to Overcome Difficulties issued by Suzhou City supports small and medium-sized enterprises to cope with pneumonia in novel coronavirus. At the same time, Shanghai, Beijing, Shandong, Chongqing and Zhuhai have also introduced relevant support policies.
As far as auto parts enterprises are concerned, in addition to policies, they also need the support of vehicle enterprises. Therefore, after the outbreak of the epidemic, many experts in the industry called on vehicle manufacturers to give more support to parts companies to stabilize the supply chain and tide over the difficulties together.
However, after that moment, what should I do next?
There is still a glimmer of hope for your life.
The arrival of "Black Swan" is not only the local small and medium-sized parts enterprises in China, but also the international parts giants.
Bosch has issued an early warning before, its CEO? Walker. Denner said, "The novel coronavirus outbreak may affect the global automobile supply chain that relies heavily on China. We need to wait for the situation to develop. If this situation continues, Bosch's global supply chain will be interrupted. "
Amber even pointed out directly that the novel coronavirus epidemic in China caused the company's operating income to decrease by $65.438+0.5 billion to $200 million, and its operating profit to decrease by $60 million to $80 million, which was higher than expected.
Visteon also predicted in the financial report that the epidemic will reduce the company's revenue in the first quarter of this year by 60 million US dollars.
Tenneco also said that due to the novel coronavirus epidemic in China, the factory was shut down for at least four weeks, which would have a negative impact on the company's value-added income of about $654.38+$50 million in the first quarter, reducing the profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization by $50 million.
What is certain, however, is that the pace of change in the automobile industry has never been slowed down or even promoted by the "black swan".
Image source: Baidu Apollo
From unmanned disinfection vehicles that fight in the front line of the epidemic to air purifiers that can disinfect the inside of vehicles, they are highly respected, which makes "autonomous driving" and "intelligent healthy cockpit" no longer just a concept, but really appear around the public, and also makes the driverless technology in China usher in a "bright moment".
A few days ago, Bosch and Toyota successively made strategic investments in Time Space Technology and Ma Xiao Zhixing. As far as Bosch is concerned, after investing in the autonomous driving logistics platform and service provider "Mainline Technology" and laser radar manufacturer "Jose Technology" in September last year, it has once again increased the number of enterprises related to the autonomous driving industry in China, with a view to speeding up the autonomous driving field.
Image source: Bosch
In addition, Bosch revealed in the financial report that in 2020, Bosch will invest 500 million euros in electrified transportation, including fuel cell technology, more than 600 million euros for autonomous driving and 654.38 billion euros for connected transportation solutions. In other words, adding more companies related to the autonomous driving industry in China is only a small step for Bosch to transform into a new field.
You know, with the new emission regulations of China and the European Union coming to the ground one after another, the global autonomous driving process is accelerating, and the electrification, intelligence, networking and enjoyment of automobiles are rapidly approaching, leaving little time for traditional parts enterprises.
For this reason, many international parts giants have indicated in their financial reports that they will increase their investment in new technologies. Although the performance of these enterprises in 20 19 is not satisfactory, the double decline of revenue and profit has become a common situation.
Even so, under the chase of many international parts giants with abundant capital and talent reserves, companies that have long led the new technology field, such as Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., NXP, Infineon and Ma Xiao Zhixing, still have to let go. Like all traditional parts enterprises in urgent need of transformation, they only have to "lay down their bodies" or have a glimmer of hope.
Summary: The epidemic will always pass, but the automobile supply chain baptized by the "black swan" will accelerate the process of industry integration and industrial transformation. Under the general trend of "new four modernizations" of automobiles, a new supply chain system will also be built, thus writing a new competitive pattern. In the short term, it is difficult for every participant in the global automobile supply chain to relax, but we still believe that everything will pass and spring will come.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.