[Edit this paragraph] The reason for the stock market crash
Direct cause
After the stock market crash, many people put forward different theories. The main reasons for the stock market crash include: program trading, high stock price, insufficient market liquidity and herd mentality. (1) The most widely accepted theory is that the stock market crash is caused by program trading. Program trading, which uses computer programs to calculate stock price changes and trading strategies in real time, gradually became popular on Wall Street in the late1970s. Program trading enables large-scale stock trading and futures trading to be conducted at the same time. After the stock market crash, many people said that when the computer program saw the stock price drop, it joined the stock selling according to the mechanism set by the program long ago, forming a vicious circle, accelerating the stock price drop, and the stock price drop made the program sell more stocks. (2) Portfolio insurance is also one of the reasons. The so-called portfolio insurance is to sell stocks when the market falls to stop losses. There is a premise here that there must be potential recipients. But on that day, all the receivers disappeared, and the operation mode of portfolio insurance pushed the stock price down rapidly. In addition, portfolio insurance relies on almost unlimited liquidity, but liquidity does not always exist, and liquidity sometimes dries up. This investment strategy is not feasible when everyone wants to sell. (3) Economist Richard Roll believes that market globalization is the main reason, because program trading is only prevalent in the United States, while Hong Kong and Australian stock markets with few program trading took the lead in falling on 10 and 19, so the sharp fluctuation of a major stock market spread to global stock markets in one day, because of market globalization.
Initial condition
There are many reasons for the stock market crash, but at least one of the following conditions should be met: (1) A country's macroeconomic fundamentals have deteriorated seriously, making it difficult for listed companies to operate; (2) Low-cost direct financing leads to "inefficient" financial and "inefficient" economic development, which greatly leads to a bubble and the stock price is seriously overvalued. (3) There are serious defects in the listing and trading system of the stock market itself, which leads to the prevalence of speculation and the loss of investment value and resource allocation function of the stock market. (4) Political, military, natural disasters and other crises have seriously hit the confidence of the securities market, and the securities market has psychological panic and cannot continue to operate normally.
[Edit this paragraph] Measures to deal with the stock market crash
Almost every country or region that suffered from the stock market crash has taken countermeasures. Emergency measures mainly include: activating the "circuit breaker" to suspend stock market trading, using the stock market stabilization fund to enter the market, repurchasing the company's shares, and eliminating market panic. In order to avoid the recurrence of the stock market crash, the construction and improvement of securities market regulations have been accelerated, effective market supervision and standardized operation have been strengthened, and economic recovery and development have been promoted to rebuild investor confidence.
[Edit this paragraph] Several worst stock market crashes.
Market cracks in new york Stock Exchange
1929 stock market crash1929 65438+1Thursday, October 24th. The disaster happened without warning. There was no obvious sign at the opening, and the stock index was still very strong for a while, but the turnover was very large. Suddenly, the stock price began to fall. In the morning 1 1, the stock market went crazy and people rushed to sell. By 1 1:30, the stock market has plummeted. Suicide began to spread, and within an hour, 1 1 famous speculators committed suicide. The number of shares changed hands on that day reached 1289460, and many of them were sold at low prices, which dashed the hopes and dreams of the holders. This kind of experience not only befalls ordinary irrational investors, but even Keynes, the most famous economist in the 20th century, almost went bankrupt in this crisis. From September of 1929 to June of 1933 and 1, the average price of Dow Jones' 30 industrial stocks dropped from $364.9 to $62.7, and the average price of 20 public utility stocks dropped from 14 1.9 to $282,000. The share price of American steel company fell from $262 to $265,438 +0. GM dropped from $92 to $7. Thousands of banks closed down and tens of thousands of enterprises closed down. From 1929 to 1933, there were four bank panics in just four years. After the stock market crash, the Great Depression followed lasted 10 years. From September of 1929 to the bottom of the Great Depression of 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped from 38 1 to 36, shrinking by 90%. Until 194 1, the output value in dollars is still lower than 1929. During the period from1930 to1940, only 1937 had the average number of unemployed people below 8 million. 1933 About 1 30,000 people were unemployed, and almost1people in the four major labor forces were unemployed. The stock market crash completely hit the confidence of investors, and it was not until 1954 that US stocks recovered to the level of 1929. 1987 stock market crash 19871019, black Monday, only three hours after its opening, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508.32 points, or 22.62%. Immediately, the panic spread to other areas outside the United States. On the same day, the stock markets in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Paris, Frankfurt, Toronto, Sydney and Wellington also fell. The following week, the panic intensified. 10 year 10 On October 20th, the share price of Tokyo Stock Exchange fell by 14.9%, setting a record for the decline of Tokyo securities. 65438+1On October 26th, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 1 126 points, with a drop of 33.5%, the highest in the history of the decline of Hong Kong stocks, which swallowed up all the gains since 1986+065438+ 10. The news of the Asian stock market crash was sent back to Europe and the United States, causing the European and American stock markets to fall again. According to statistics, during the eight days from June 10 to June 26th, the wealth lost due to the stock market crash was as high as 2 trillion US dollars, which was 5.92 times of the total direct and indirect losses of 338 billion US dollars in World War II. The shock of the stock market has just eased, and social and economic life has fallen into panic and fluctuation. Banks closed down, factories closed down, and enterprises laid off a large number of employees. 1929 The tragedy happened again. Fortunately, compared with 1929, the American economy maintained a relatively rapid growth at that time, and the stock market crash did not lead to the overall economic crisis. However, the impact of the stock market crash on the American economy is still huge, followed by a long period of stagnation of the American economy.
Japanese stock market crash
From 1989 to 12, the Nikkei average stock index reached 389 15 points. In the 1990s, the Japanese stock market price plummeted immediately. By June 1990, the stock index had fallen below 20,000 points. 199 1 rebounded slightly in the first half of the year, but the decline was even greater in the second half. On April 1992, the Nikkei average index of Tokyo stock market fell below 17000 points, and the Japanese stock market fell into panic. In August, 18 fell to 14309, basically returning to the level of 1985. Up to now, the stock index has fallen by 63% compared with its peak period, and the total current price of listed stocks has dropped from 65,438+630 trillion yen at the end of 0989 to 299 trillion yen, a decrease of 33 1 trillion yen in three years, and the bubble in the Japanese stock market has completely burst. The securities industry has fallen into an unprecedented depression. In the two years since 199 1, the trading volume of the stock market has only been 20% of the previous one, and more than 200 securities companies have all made ends meet, and the operating deficit is getting bigger and bigger. 1992, the deficit of many large companies reached more than 40 billion yen. In terms of foreign capital transactions, Japan has become a capital importing country due to the reduction of foreign securities transactions and the long-term surplus of capital balance. On the other hand, due to the crazy rise of the stock market, enterprises are attracted to direct financing, and banks are forced to take venture enterprises and non-bank financial institutions as the main financing targets, which indirectly leads to the banking crisis. After the bubble burst, Japan's economic situation took a sharp turn for the worse, immediately showing a situation of equipment investment stagnation, enterprise inventory increase, industrial production decline and slow economic growth. Even the decline in real estate prices has just begun to stabilize, and the wealth of the whole country has shrunk by nearly 50%. At that time, the continuous rise in asset prices stimulated people's desire to borrow and speculate, and the Japanese banks' eagerness to lend eventually brought bitter results to real estate developers. The bursting of the real estate bubble and the inevitable increase of non-performing loans have brought a heavy burden to Japanese banks, triggered deflation, and made Japan's economy experience a more lasting and painful depression. Japan has experienced a long bear market. Even after the rebound in 2005, the Japanese stock market is still 70% away from the all-time high.
1973 hong kong stocks fell sharply
1969, a group of Chinese securities firms headed by Li Fuzhao secretly prepared a China stock exchange market-Far East Exchange Co., Ltd., which opened on 12 and 17, thus starting the general public to participate in securities and stock trading. At that time, the Hang Seng Index hit a new high of 160.05 and 197 1 on February 29th, and then the stock market kept rising, reaching a new high of 406.32 on September 20th, which was 1.5 times higher in less than two years. 1973, the first stock market crash after the popularization of Hong Kong stock market. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 90% a year, and tens of thousands of people went bankrupt.
1990 Taiwan Province stock market crash
From 1987 to 1990, the stock index of Taiwan Province Province soared from 1000 to 12682, a full increase of 12 times. At that time, Taiwan Province's economy had achieved an average high growth rate of 9% for 40 consecutive years, the exchange rate of Taiwan dollar against the US dollar rose from 1 to 1 compared with 25 yuan, and the opening of brokerage licenses were all important reasons for the influx of hot money. At that time, the housing market and the stock market were hot together. Due to the expectation of appreciation of the new Taiwan dollar, overseas "hot money" poured into the island. With the growth of residents' wealth, the prices of land and real estate in Taiwan Province Province have quadrupled in a short time. At that time, the island was completely flooded with funds, and huge capital flows greedily searched for various investment opportunities. 1989 in the last quarter, the average price-earnings ratio of Taiwan stocks reached 100 times, while the price-earnings ratio of other markets in the world was below 20 times. In February 1990, the index began to plummet from the highest point 12682 and stopped at 2485. Ten thousand points in eight months. In the process of falling from 12000, many people repeatedly bottomed out and stuck to the end. From 12000 to below 8000, some people started to buy, 7000, 6000, 5000, and then all the way down to 2485.
China stock market crash
The development of China stock market is relatively short-lived, but it still experienced two soul-stirring stock market crashes. One occurred in 1996. 1996 after the national day, the stock market was all red. From April 1 to February 9 1, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 120%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 340%. In order to cool down, the CSRC issued various regulations and notices later called "12 gold medal", but the market continued to climb. 65438+February 65438+June People's Daily published a special commentator's article "Correctly Understanding the Current Stock Market", which defined the stock market as "the recent sharp rise and fall is abnormal and irrational." The rise was finally contained. The Shanghai Composite Index reached its limit at the opening. Except for a few small-cap stocks, which closed down all day, they still fell the next day. All the book wealth of all investors who held positions three days ago evaporated. The other occurred at 200 1. On July 26 of that year, the reduction of state-owned shares officially began in the issuance of new shares. The stock market plummeted and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 32.55 points. By June 10 and 19, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged from 2245 in June 14 to 15 14, and more than 50 stocks fell. In that year, 80% of investors were quilted, the net value of the fund shrank by 40%, and the brokerage commission income decreased by 30%. Compared with the foreign stock market crash, China's stock market crash has different reasons, but all of them have some characteristics: the trend of the stock market is seriously divorced from the fundamentals of the economy, so it is doomed to be unsustainable. At the slightest sign of trouble, the whole line will collapse, and people in the stock market are too speculative, either entangled in storm warning or chasing up and down by feeling, which will inevitably lead to a tragic ending.
[Edit this paragraph] Analyze the social and economic consequences of the stock market crash.
The reason why the stock market crash is called stock market crash is because it is destructive, causing huge social and economic losses and causing huge social and economic shocks. So the consequences of the stock market crash are extremely serious. It is not difficult to find that although the time, opportunity and place of the stock market crash are different, the main reasons leading to the stock market crash are different, but the economic consequences of the stock market crash are surprisingly similar. The economic consequences of the stock market crash mainly include the following aspects:
Destroy the development of the stock market itself
Once a stock market crash occurs, the stock market itself has been seriously damaged, and any stock market that has a stock market crash is no exception. 1720 after the stock market crash in Mississippi, France, the French regarded stock investment as a timid road, which led to the long-term slow development of the French stock market and joint-stock companies. In the same year, after the crash of the South China Sea stock market, investors' investment confidence was greatly hit. Faced with the severe lesson of the stock market crash, the British Parliament passed the famous "Prohibition of Speculation and Fraudulent Groups Act" in 1720, prohibiting companies from selling their own shares. As a result, the emerging joint-stock companies were declared as illegal financial fraud groups in the society and fell into an extremely difficult situation. In the next century or so, the stocks in the British market almost disappeared, and the development of the British stock economy stagnated 100 years. 1929, the destructive power of the American stock market is also amazing. People talk about the stock market and regard it as a tiger's den, and everyone is afraid to stay away. They would rather invest their money in bonds with interest rate of 2.5% than touch industrial stocks with interest rate of 7%. It took more than 20 years for the stock market crash to restore the confidence of American investors, and it took 25 years for the Dow Jones index to return to the peak of 1929. After the Japanese stock market plunged 1992, investors' confidence in entering the market was seriously frustrated, foreign capital withdrew from the Tokyo market one after another, and the issuance of new shares by joint-stock companies also found another way. Until 10 years later, the Japanese stock market remained depressed. The reason why the stock market crash has caused such great harm to the stock market is determined by the essential characteristics and operating mechanism of the stock market. In essence, the stock market is a credit market. The confidence of investors is the driving force to support the development of the stock market. The stock market crash hit investors' confidence, leading to excessive speculation such as fraud, violation of regulations, insider trading and market manipulation, which made investors feel cheated and afraid to enter the market. If investors don't enter the market, the market will lack demand, and the stock market without demand will not grow and develop, and the fund-raising function and resource allocation function of the stock market will be blocked. Therefore, the stock market crash is a negation of the positive significance of the stock market and an enemy of the stock market development.
The stock market suffered serious economic losses.
The economic loss of the stock market is a very intuitive index to measure the destructive power of the stock market crash. What is a stock market crash? First of all, the stock market suffered serious economic losses. The economic loss of the stock market can be reflected in two aspects: first, the decline of the stock price index. The greater the decline, the greater the economic loss. For example, in the American stock market crash of 1929, the cumulative decline of the Dow Jones index was as high as 82.30%, which means that investors lost 82.30% of the stock market value on average in this stock market crash, or the stock market value of 100 yuan before the stock crash has dropped to 17.70 yuan after the stock crash. The second is the loss of stock market value. The loss of stock market value is affected by the decline of stock price index and market size. The decline is large, the market scale is large, and the economic losses of the stock market are also large. Due to the huge scale of modern stock market, the market value loss of modern stock market crash is far greater than in the past. For example, 1929, the US Dow Jones index fell by 82.30%, and the market value loss of new york stock was only 74 1 100 million US dollars. 1987, the US Dow Jones index fell by 33.7%, but the market value loss of new york stock reached 800 billion US dollars, which was 0.79 times of/kloc-0. In addition, the stock market economic losses caused by the stock market crash are also related to the scope of the stock market crash. The economic losses caused by the world stock market crash or the world regional stock market crash far exceed the losses caused by a national or regional stock market crash. For example, in the world-wide stock market crashes in 1987 and 10, the stock market value loss was as high as1792 billion US dollars.
Trigger or aggravate the financial crisis
Securities market and financial market are inextricably linked, so are countries where banks and securities are integrated, and so are countries where banks and securities are separated. This is not only because the funds in the securities market come from the society, which reduces the sources of bank funds, but also because a lot of funds in the securities market come directly or indirectly from banks. The stock market crash led to a great loss of stock market value, which inevitably made the funds flowing into the stock market from the bank unable to flow back to the bank according to the original amount; The stock market crash led to economic recession and bankruptcy of industrial and commercial enterprises, which indirectly affected banks and increased their non-performing assets; In countries or regions where the stock market is internationalized, the stock market crash will reduce investment opportunities in the stock market, lead to capital outflow, lead to currency depreciation, and also impact banks and foreign exchange markets. In short, the stock market crash will trigger a financial crisis. For countries and regions where the financial crisis directly leads to stock market crash, the occurrence of stock market crash will aggravate the financial crisis. 1929 the us stock market crashed, and the financial industry was the first to bear the brunt. A considerable part of the bank's long-term loan funds turned into bad debts. At the same time, customers have withdrawn a lot of deposits from banks, and the phenomenon of bank runs can be seen everywhere, and many banks have closed down. The number of bankruptcies in the United States increased from 659 in 1929 to 2,294 in 193 1, with the highest proportion reaching 10.6% of the total number of banks. By 1933, as many as 4,004 banks in the United States went bankrupt and carried out industry rectification and reorganization, accounting for 28.2% of the total number of banks in the United States. Because the banking industry contributed to the excessive speculation in the Japanese stock market in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the 1992 Japanese stock market crash directly led to Japan's deep financial crisis. Bad debts and bad debts of Japanese banks have increased rapidly, reaching 50 trillion yen according to the data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. After the stock market crash, Japanese banks generally suffered losses or even huge losses, and some banks went bankrupt or closed down. 1992 the impact of the Japanese stock market crash on the financial industry has not been completely eliminated after many years. 1997, Hanako Bank, Kyoto Rongrong Bank, hokkaido takushoku bank went bankrupt. As a result, the international reputation and prestige of the Japanese financial industry have been greatly reduced. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the southeast Asian financial crisis of 1997 triggered the Mexican stock market crash and the southeast Asian stock market crash respectively, which further pushed the former into the abyss and formed a tragic situation in which the foreign exchange market and the stock market fell in turn. From July 1997 to June 1998, the currencies of almost all other countries and regions with financial openness depreciated, with the Indonesian rupiah depreciating by more than 70%, the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit and Korean won depreciating by as much as 30% ~ 50%, and the Singapore dollar, the new Taiwan dollar and the Japanese yen depreciating by 10% ~. The whole financial industry is in a state of extreme chaos and violent turmoil. Just to alleviate or prevent currency devaluation, Mexico and some Southeast Asian countries and regions have almost exhausted their foreign exchange reserves accumulated for many years, but the results are still useless, leaving behind more and more bad debts, bad debts and non-performing assets, reduced bank credit, currency devaluation and increased inflation.
Aggravate economic recession or crisis.
The stock market is a barometer of the national economy. The stock market and economic ups and downs have become a kind of knowledge. No matter what the cause of the stock market crash is, the existing signs of economic recession or the general recognition of investors' expectations of economic recession are the fundamental reasons for the stock market crash. Because the stock market crash is an exaggerated response to the economic recession, it not only destroys the normal development of the stock market itself, but also triggers or intensifies the financial crisis, which has a great negative impact on economic development, thus aggravating the economic recession and even leading to the economic crisis in serious cases. A typical example is 1992, the global economic crisis triggered by the worldwide stock market crash. The stock market crash caused people to be extremely pessimistic about the economic prospects, which led to a sharp drop in investment. American private investment decreased from16 billion dollars in 1929 to1340 million dollars in 1933, and the American economy lost its momentum of development. The decrease in demand led to a decrease in output. The industrial production ratio in the United States decreased by 50% compared with 1929, and the total farm income decreased from 55.84% in 1929 to 53 billion. The national income dropped from $87.8 billion in 1929 to $40.2 billion in 1933, a decrease of 54.22%. The decline in output has led to a decrease in workers' income and an increase in unemployment. 1929 The per capita income of the United States was 68 1 USD, while 1933 dropped to 495 USD, a decrease of 2 1.32%. The unemployment rate rose from 5% of 1929 to 25% of 193 1. Affected by the American economic crisis, the world economic crisis broke out again. Developed countries such as Britain, France and Germany are in serious economic difficulties, and the economy of the whole western world has regressed for decades, and it was not until more than 20 years later that it was restored. 199 1 ~ 1992 Japan's stock market crash has had a shocking negative impact on the economy. In 1980s, Japan's economy developed rapidly, with the highest economic growth rate among all western countries, and its per capita GNP surpassed France, Britain, Germany and the United States successively. 199 1 ~ 1992 After the Japanese stock market plunged, Japan's economy entered a long-term recession, capital outflow was serious, domestic investment dropped sharply, and economic growth slowed down significantly, from being higher than other western countries to being lower than other western countries. For example, in 1990, 199 1, 1992 and 1993, the annual growth rate of Japanese GNP was 4.8%, 4.3%,1./kloc respectively. The contrast of economic growth before and after the stock market crash is extremely obvious. On the contrary, in the same period, the economies of western countries led by the United States showed a marked rebound. 1994 after the Mexican financial crisis, despite the strong assistance of international financial institutions led by the United States, it has not been able to get out of economic difficulties for a long time. 1997 the southeast Asian financial crisis and the stock market crash not only dealt an unprecedented heavy blow to the economies of southeast Asian countries and regions, but also had a certain impact on the economic growth of the whole world.
Cause social unrest
The stock market crash and its serious economic consequences will eventually be transferred to people's lives, which is one of the root causes of social unrest. First of all, every stock market crash will aggravate the polarization between the rich and the poor. This is because the market value loss of the stock market crash is not evenly distributed to every investor, and only those who follow up at a high level and cannot escape from the stock market crash are the biggest victims. However, selling at a high level instead of every dark cloud has a glimmer of hope to become the beneficiary of the stock market crash, and the loss of fleeing at the beginning of the stock market crash is also small. This has greatly aggravated the polarization of investors' gains and losses. Some of them have become millions, tens of millions or even billionaires, and some have lost their money and lost everything. Secondly, a direct consequence of the stock market crash aggravating the economic recession is an increase in unemployment rate, a decrease in income and a decline in living standards, which will also cause social unrest. In addition, the stock market crash will aggravate the financial crisis, cause currency depreciation, cause inflation, directly or indirectly lead to the disorder of people's social life and aggravate social unrest. After the Indonesian 1997 to 1998 and 1 financial crises, commodity snapping, demonstrations and even riots occurred in some parts of China, which can also illustrate this point.
People still remember the stock market crash in 2007.
The Shanghai Composite Index began to fall above 6000 points and didn't stop falling until 1800 points. Bubble is still a bubble, and the era of national stock trading indicates a collapse. When no one wants to buy goods, it is really a good season for sowing. Now that stock index futures have been introduced, the market is no longer directionless and still empty. Today is 2800 May 1, 20 1.