2117 Investigation and Analysis Report of Shops Investment in Zhengzhou

From p>2114 to 2116, commercial real estate in Zhengzhou entered a period of rapid development, and the development of pure commerce and commercial plus housing also reached its peak during this period. At present, the rental and sale prices of many commercial property projects in the market are basically 2 to 3 times that of office buildings and residential properties in the same location, and some are even higher. Real estate developers can obtain early development funds and construction funds through local sales, and then complete the shop development project through rolling investment.

driven by high profits, some development enterprises in the primary development stage can't help it, and they are building in the central business district or quasi-central district. It is in this upsurge of shop development and purchase that many experts have raised the concerns that "commercial real estate is overheating" and "commercial real estate is oversupply". The Real Estate Research Center of Henan Dot Market Research Company integrated the self-tracking "Zhengzhou Real Estate Sales and Advertising Monitoring" and the "Zhengzhou Commercial Real Estate Investor Survey" conducted in March this year, and deeply studied the relevant statistical data of Zhengzhou real estate. The research results show that the shops in Zhengzhou are basically vacant except the core areas of mature business districts.

p>▲▲ Vacant shops are basically in a small-scale business circle and business environment

In recent years, residential development in Zhengzhou is basically a model: small-area shops such as storefronts are developed at the bottom and along the street, and even there are rows of storefronts in the community.

in a residential area, it is necessary to have proper pavements as supporting facilities for community residents' services. However, with the acceleration of urbanization and modernization, people's activities have gradually expanded, and many shops in the residential area have shifted their consumption to modern and well-served commercial centers, resulting in a high vacancy rate of shops in the residential area. Now, some residential areas have been built for two or three years, but basically no shops have opened, and some have even become garages.

In addition, the shops on the ground floor basically belong to the appendages of houses, and developers mainly consider the problem of habitability when designing, so it is easy to ignore and sacrifice the feasibility of shop operation. Therefore, this part of the shops are either not in Zhengzhou's mature business district, or the surrounding business environment is not ideal. Except for some shops along the street, a large number of other areas are vacant.

p>▲▲ Vacant commercial real estate projects are related to the developers' lack of experience in commercial real estate development

Because real estate developers are biased in grasping commercial characteristics and do not understand commercial laws, many real estate developers do not see the difference between commercial real estate development and residential development, so they directly apply the familiar residential development model.

from the perspective of value chain, the value chain of shop development is obviously longer than that of residential development. In the value chain of shop development, developers sell shops to investors, and investors may operate their own shops and concurrently serve as operators, or they may sublet the shops, with the lessee as the operator.

according to the survey conducted by polka dot company, the majority of shop buyers in Zhengzhou do not use the shops for direct operation, and 55% of the shop investors are out of place with the final operators, that is, there is the problem of attracting investment for the second time, and its value chain is obviously lengthened. However, some developers have no experience in the unified management of investment promotion and commercial real estate, resulting in many shops being unable to attract investment due to lack of popularity, and the value chain has broken and become a "dead shop".

p>▲▲ Vacant shops are basically buildings with vague and inaccurate positioning

Many commercial real estate projects have the phenomenon of "premature birth", that is to say, many commercial real estate projects were launched under the condition of insufficient investigation and demonstration in the early stage.

Some developers only consider their own real estate development, without evaluating the surrounding business environment and business carrying capacity, and some even rush to get on the horse without knowing the situation of their competitors, hoping to build the building and sell it as soon as possible. When the project was launched, it was found that there were many competitors around it, and the positioning at that time was biased, which made some commercial projects doomed to failure from the first day of its launch. These have become the commercial projects with the highest vacancy rate.

Zhengzhou's commercial real estate projects have been successful in recent years, but many have failed. We find that the success or failure of commercial real estate is directly related to the accuracy of its positioning. Most developers hope that the shorter the development cycle is, the better, and they don't pay attention to the subsequent management and operation of commercial properties. As a result, the sales scene is hot, and the real estate developers leave after making money. The project may plummet due to the failure to follow up the investment promotion in the later period, and the expected return of investors cannot be realized, which is also the main reason for many real estate disputes.

p>▲▲ Analysis of consumers' demand for commercial real estate investment

1. Consumers' views on Zhengzhou's commercial real estate development in the next few years

Survey and analysis data show that 18.6% and 26.9% investors are very confident and confident about Zhengzhou's commercial development in the next few years, while 38.2% investors think it is average, with 11.6% and 4.7%.

From the overall analysis, the development of Zhengzhou commercial market has good confidence conditions, which is very necessary and necessary for the development of commercial real estate.

2. regional analysis of investors' choice of commercial investment in the next few years

survey and analysis data show that in the next few years, shop investors still have a soft spot for mature areas, and in the next few years, nearly 51% will choose to invest in shops in the central area, followed by East District and Zhengdong New District. Zhengdong New District is the key development area of Zhengzhou in the future, so some investors have set their sights on this area as the preferred investment area. However, the Development Zone and South Zone are not very popular, accounting for 2.9% and 6.7% respectively.

3. Analysis of investors' choice of business type in the next few years

According to the survey and analysis data, the pure commercial building type is the first choice for investors in shops in the next few years, followed by the commercial plus residential building type, accounting for 28%, with 11% investors' attitude not clear, and 6% investors' choice is uncertain, which is very obvious.

4. Analysis of investors' choice of commercial investment payment methods in the next few years

The survey and analysis data show that although the loan interest rate has been raised at present, the enthusiasm of consumers to invest in shops has not been greatly affected. According to the survey, most investors in shops hope to invest their spare money in shops. In terms of payment methods, most investors in shops choose to pay in one lump sum when their ability allows.

from the above investigation and analysis of the current situation of Zhengzhou's commercial real estate market and investors' demand, we must treat the vacancy rate of Zhengzhou's commercial real estate correctly, neither too alarmed nor too optimistic. To solve the vacancy problem of Zhengzhou's shops, we need unified planning and rational investment from investors. (Henan Yuandian Market Consulting Co., Ltd. Real Estate Research Center)