The world economic development is characterized by continuity. The development and changes of the world economy since the second half of the 20th century, especially since the end of 1980s, will profoundly affect the basic situation of the world economy from 265,438 to the beginning of the 20th century. The development of economic globalization, the deepening of regional economic cooperation and the promotion of knowledge economy have the greatest influence on the new century. The change of international trade, investment and production is a barometer of the development and change of the world economy. On the other hand, the development and changes of the world economy affect international trade, investment and production in quality and quantity.
2 1 Basic situation of the world economy in the first five years of the century
2 1 The basic characteristics of the world economy at the beginning of the century were not formed overnight, but were closely related to the international political and economic reality in the 20th century. The development and changes of international politics and economy in the 20th century were based on two world wars and the bipolar world of the United States and the Soviet Union which lasted for nearly half a century. Especially the cold war after the Second World War, reflected in the economy, the essence is the competition between the two economic systems. In the early 1990s, the Cold War ended with the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In the early 1990s, the world economy experienced a stage from recession to slow recovery. 1The Asian financial crisis in the second half of the 1990s and the resulting world economic recession also show that the current world economic system does not fully meet the needs of the ever-changing international economy.
(1) The world economy is still in a period of adjustment, showing a low-speed and steady growth trend.
In the 1990s, the world economy experienced a period of violent turbulence, and the economic growth rate dropped sharply twice, which eventually led to the global average economic growth rate in the 1990s being lower than that in the 1980s and 1970s. Therefore, the world economy has entered a period of adjustment. On the one hand, the economic situation in different parts of the world is very different; On the other hand, this adjustment will last until the first five years of this century.
(1) The economic adjustment in East Asia will be basically completed.
According to the statistics of the Asian Development Bank, the economy of East Asia has grown at an average annual rate of 8% in the last 20 years, which is much higher than the average annual growth rate of 4.3% in all developing countries and 3% in developed countries. East Asia has become the most economically dynamic region in the world and one of the largest trade and investment markets in the world. 1997 The financial crisis not only interrupted the rapid economic growth in East Asia, but also spread to other regions to varying degrees, which had a great impact on the world economy in the late 1990s.
Therefore, one of our basic viewpoints is that in the first five years of 2 1 century, East Asia's economy will enter a stage of slow and steady growth. East Asian countries will further accelerate the pace of economic restructuring in order to become the growth point of the global economy again. The economic recovery in East Asia has many influences on China, especially in trade and investment. The competition between China and other countries in East Asia will intensify.
(2) The European economy represented by the EU will gradually come out of the trough.
The impact of the European economy on the global economy is self-evident. But the influence of different parts of Europe is very different. Europe can be roughly divided into three parts, Russia, CIS, other European countries and the Baltic countries. Except for Russia, other countries have little influence on the global economy. The second is the former Eastern European countries (now generally called Central and Eastern European countries), including 10 countries. They are actively moving closer to the EU politically and economically, but they have little influence on the global economy. The economic and trade cooperation between Central and Eastern European countries and China is small, which has little influence on China. Third, Western European countries represented by the European Union. This piece is the main part of European economy, which has great influence on the whole world economy and is closely related to China.
2 1 century, the EU will probably accelerate economic adjustment, and the economic growth rate will remain low and steady. 2/kloc-In the first five years of the 20th century, the events that the European Union will have an impact on the world economy include: the euro officially entered the circulation field after completing the transition stage and the EU's eastward expansion (the fifth eastward expansion).
Whether the euro can successfully complete the transition and formally enter circulation will have a great impact on the world economy. 1999 65438+ 10 1 euro officially appeared at the same time as setting the currency exchange rates of member countries in the same region. Originally, all countries had high hopes and predicted that the euro would be a strong currency, but the euro began to fall continuously as soon as it appeared. The fall of the euro is conducive to the economic development and adjustment of the EU, and can promote the increase of EU exports, but it is not conducive to the image of the EU and the next expansion of the euro zone. How to improve people's confidence in the euro is an important task for the EU to enter the new century. The development of the euro will have a great impact on the international monetary system.
The EU has begun to expand eastward, and is ready to absorb 10 countries in transition in Central and Eastern Europe and 1 Mediterranean countries to join the EU in batches. If the eastward expansion is successful, the EU will expand from the current 15 countries to 26 countries, which will put the EU in a more favorable position in international competition in the long run.
Although the EU has made great progress in the process of integration, there are also some difficulties in economic adjustment. For example, the unemployment rate is still high (1998 is 10.6%). Reducing the unemployment rate has become an important social problem in the EU. There are also issues such as economic coordination between euro zone member States and other EU member States. Any measures and actions of economic integration must first ensure that the whole EU integration is not damaged.
(3) The United States will remain the leader of the world economy.
2/KLOC-In the first five years of the 20th century, the United States will further adjust its global political, security and economic strategies. Based on its absolute advantages in economy and science and technology, we will strengthen its leading position in the world and continue to play a leading role in the world economy. 1In July, 1996, the National Science and Technology Commission of the United States published a report entitled "Technology Benefiting the Country", and concluded that "by the end of the 20th century, information will become the most important commodity in the world economic system. The speed at which the United States creates knowledge and its ability to use new knowledge will determine its position in the international market in the next century.
Driven by the development of information industry, the American economy continued to grow for about 107 months. Judging from the current adjustment of the American economy, as long as there are no major accidental factors, the American economy will maintain stable development in the next five years.
To sum up, due to the influence of the Asian financial crisis in the second half of 1990s, the world economy has entered a stage of adjustment. This adjustment is expected to be completed in five years at the beginning of the next century. The whole world economy will show a trend of low-speed and steady growth. In developed countries and countries less affected by the financial crisis in the late 1990s, the speed of adjustment may be faster, and the benefits of adjustment will be more easily reflected.
Judging from the content of economic adjustment, most developing countries will still be at the level of industrial restructuring. Some developing countries are even in the transition from agricultural economy to industrial economy, but some developing countries and regions with higher economic level have entered or are entering the ranks of "advanced economies". In the first five years of 2 1 century, the trend of these countries entering the post-industrial era will become clear, and they will strive to promote and upgrade their industrial structure in the fields of science and technology, information, service and management. Developed countries will truly enter the era of knowledge economy. Their economic adjustment is to make full use of and rationally allocate knowledge and intellectual resources, and obtain high profits worldwide with the help of their strong economic foundation.
There are three main characteristics of this world economic adjustment: first, it lasts for a long time and may not end until 2005; Second, it involves a wide range, and most developed and developing countries will be involved in this adjustment trend; Third, the content of adjustment has undergone a qualitative change, not only to solve the imbalance of industrial structure, but also to promote this adjustment process through science and technology and information.
(2) The growth rate of trade will continue to exceed the growth rate of production.
Since 1990s, the growth rate of world trade has always exceeded the growth rate of world production. The correlation between world trade growth and production development is constantly improving. According to a research report, during the period from 1960 to 1969, every time the world output increases, the world trade volume increases by1%; During the period from 1970 to 1979, the world trade volume increased by1.25% for every percentage point increase in world output; During the period from 1990 to 1994, the world output increased by 1% and the trade volume increased by 2%. The correlation between trade growth and production development has reached an unprecedented level and is still improving.
The structural adjustment of the world economy will make the comparative interests of countries (regions) in the world more obvious and urge countries to adjust their import and export structures. If the establishment of a new international economic order is better promoted, the terms of trade of all countries, especially developing countries, will be improved to some extent. Trade activities between countries will be more frequent, and trade will remain an important driving force for economic growth in all countries.
In the first five years of 2 1 century, the international trade structure will also undergo major changes. One possibility is that the trade volume of primary products such as raw materials will increase substantially, but the prices are relatively low and changeable. Accordingly, the trade of manufactured goods will increase greatly, especially the trade of high-tech products will account for a large proportion in the total world trade. The main reasons for this situation are:
First of all, the pressure of population growth will promote the development of primary product trade.
Second, a considerable number of developing countries, especially those least developed countries, can only rely on the increase of primary product exports to slowly promote economic growth.
Third, the structure of world export commodities is developing in the direction of intelligence, showing the characteristics of the era of knowledge economy. Emerging industries such as microelectronics, bioengineering, new materials, optical fiber, aerospace engineering, marine engineering, computer software and new energy are changing with each passing day, which greatly promotes the adjustment and upgrading of the world industrial structure, thus promoting the development of export commodity structure in the intelligent direction, and the trade of high-tech products with deep processing and high added value will become the main content of the trade of manufactured goods.
(C) The uneven distribution of international trade patterns has increased the economic gap.
265438+In the first five years of the 20th century, the unbalanced distribution of international trade pattern will further widen the economic gap between different countries. The following aspects may continue to exist in the next five years.
(1) Developed countries will still occupy the dominant position in international trade.
(2) The proportion of developed countries in international trade shows a downward trend, while the proportion of developing countries shows an upward trend. On the one hand, this phenomenon shows that more developing countries are participating in international trade and their contribution to the world economy is increasing; On the other hand, the decline in the share of developed countries does not mean the loss of the dominant position of developed countries.
(3) Developing countries will further widen the gap. Some developing countries with higher economic level will become important trading countries, and their economic development will be closer to the level of entering the ranks of developed countries. However, most developing countries are still in the position of raw material suppliers and finished product sales markets.
Because these countries are at the bottom of the international production and division of labor system and are limited by various factors at home and abroad, their benefits from the development of international trade will be limited, and their economies may continue to be at a low level.
(d) Transnational corporations and regional economic cooperation to promote international trade
In the development of international trade, service trade will develop greatly and its proportion in the whole trade will be significantly strengthened. It is expected to rise from about 65,438+0/5 in the mid-1990s to over 65,438+0/3 in the early 20th century. Service trade, technology trade and commodity trade have become the three major components of international trade.
Multinational companies have become the main force in international trade, and will play an increasingly important role in international trade at the beginning of the next century. The further development of regional economic cooperation will also significantly promote trade. Whether it is Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asia-Europe Economic Cooperation, or transatlantic cooperation between the European Union and the North American Free Trade Area, its goal is to promote the liberalization of mutual trade within the region. Some countries in North America, Western Europe, Japan, East Asia and Latin America will maintain their position as major or important markets in the world. This is related to the economic growth in these areas.
(v) Development and changes of international capital flows
(1) There are three basic forms of international capital flow, namely, bank loans, securities investment and direct investment. 2/kloc-0 An important change in international capital flow at the beginning of the century is that securities investment will become the main way of international capital flow, which is the result of the information revolution promoting the development of financial globalization. In addition, at the beginning of the next century, international direct investment will still be an important form of international capital flow, but the investment mode will undergo tremendous changes, which will have a very significant impact on the economies of various countries.
(2) In the next few years, the flow of international capital will still be developed countries, and developed countries will also be the main exporters of international capital flows. Some developing countries with higher level of economic development will become important recipients of international investment. The reason is that these countries will maintain a high economic growth rate at the beginning of the next century, and liberalization and privatization will further develop.
(3) With the expansion of international direct investment in 2 1 century, the structure of investment departments will also change, that is, from primary industries and resource-processing industries to service industries and technology-intensive industries. The main way of international direct investment will further tend to adopt mergers and acquisitions.
(4) Transnational acquisition continues to be an important way of foreign direct investment (hereinafter referred to as FDI). The purpose of attracting investment in the host country is to stimulate the development of its own economy, while the purpose of transnational corporations' foreign investment is to enhance their competitiveness in the international arena, and the two must be coordinated. From the international situation, the key to attract more and better FDI is to adopt policies that adapt to multinational companies. According to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 1999 and 1998, 60 countries in the world have revised 145 laws and regulations on foreign direct investment, of which 136 (accounting for 94% of the total) is to create a more relaxed environment for foreign direct investment.
2 1 Basic situation of the world economy before the century 15
(-) The adjustment of the world economy has been completed and it has entered a new round of rapid development.
Under the strong impetus of economic globalization, the completion of world economic adjustment will enable countries to participate in the international division of labor according to the principle of comparative advantage and pursue the best combination of factors in a wider range. The whole world economy will enter a new period of rapid development.
(1) The global economic adjustment that began in the 1990s will promote the development of economic structure and industrial structure in all countries, especially the developed and developing countries with high economic level, which are the main promoters of world economic growth. Because of this economic adjustment, they will regard high technology, information and knowledge as the main force of economic growth in the next century to varying degrees, so their development will be very rapid. Therefore, in 15 years before the next century, the reasons for the rapid growth of the world economy mainly come from high technology and the high application of information and knowledge in investment, trade and production.
(2) The next round of rapid growth of the world economy will inevitably continue to aggravate the imbalance of the world economy. For "marginalized" countries, the gap with other countries in the world will further widen. The United Nations Development Planning Commission formulated the original criteria for the least developed countries in 197 1 and revised it five times in 1994. With each revision, the number of least developed countries is also increasing. According to the standard of 1994, by the end of 1994, there were 48 least developed countries in the world (25 of 197 1), which were distributed in Africa (33 countries), Asia (9 countries) and America (/kloc-
The economic development of the above-mentioned least developed countries is an unstable factor in the world economic development in the next 15 years. Eliminating poverty and alleviating imbalance are important issues facing the international community.
(b) Trade liberalization has become a basic trend, but there are still variables.
The rapidly developing regional economic cooperation in the world will be institutionalized in the next 15 years. Not only in the regional economic cooperation circle, trade barriers will be greatly reduced or even basically eliminated, but also trade liberalization among regional economic cooperation circles will be greatly developed. Trade liberalization has become an irreversible basic trend.
Under the trend of trade liberalization, developed countries are the main beneficiaries. For developing countries, trade liberalization is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it will contribute to the economic development of developing countries, on the other hand, the domestic market and domestic industries will be strongly impacted by the capital of developed countries.
Generally speaking, trade liberalization is irreversible, so trade between countries will develop rapidly. However, it should be pointed out that some countries will create some new trade barriers for their own interests, thus forming obstacles to trade liberalization. When developing countries and some countries trying to join the WTO haven't had time to deal with such serious problems as how to adapt their domestic economic policies to the rules of the WTO multilateral trading system, developed countries put more new issues on the new agenda of the WTO, which makes these countries face a severe international environment. For example, trade and environmental protection, trade and labor standards, trade and competition policies, and other similar "new trade issues" have all been included in the negotiation agenda of the WTO. Under the pretext of resisting "ecological dumping", "social dumping" and "unfair competition", these problems will inevitably bring new obstacles to international trade in the 2 1 century, bring resistance to the improvement of the terms of trade of developing countries, and thus bring many variables to the future multilateral trading system.
(3) The trade of high-tech products will account for a large proportion in the import and export trade of various countries.
The future growth of the world economy mainly depends on the development of science and technology. With the development of science and technology, high-tech industry is increasingly becoming the pillar of industrial structure, and high-tech products will continue to emerge in the next 15 years and become an important trade content. The World Development Report 1998/99 of the World Bank points out that in almost all OECD members, the proportion of high-tech industries in the total added value of manufacturing industry has increased, and the growth of exports is quite remarkable.
In recent years, two-thirds of the economic growth in the United States comes from the fastest-growing information technology industry in the United States. The export of information technology products in the United States has accounted for 40% of the total export, and this proportion will increase even more in the next century. This change is also true in other countries. Take China as an example, the high-tech industry will also maintain rapid growth in the next few years. It is estimated that the market size of electronic information products in the whole society will reach 1 trillion RMB in 2000 and 6 trillion RMB in 20 10. China will become a powerful country in electronic information industry and one of the largest electronic markets in the world.
The increase in the production and export of high-tech products not only improves the quality of human life, but also greatly reduces the production cost and promotes the export of related products under the effect of scale effect. This is a severe challenge for developing countries, especially those with high economic development level, and it is also an opportunity for development.
(D) the changing trend of international trade
(1) Green trade has become the mainstream. The knowledge economy that will develop by leaps and bounds in the future can be said to be a sustainable economy that promotes the coordinated development between man and nature. This is different from the traditional industry, which aims at making full use of natural resources to obtain maximum profits, so it does not consider or rarely considers environmental benefits, ecological benefits and social benefits.
In the next 15 years, the concepts of production, trade and consumption will change greatly. The research and development of high-tech products will follow a new guiding ideology, that is, using existing resources scientifically, reasonably, comprehensively and efficiently, and developing rich natural resources that have not been utilized to replace the scarce natural resources that have been exhausted. Therefore, production under knowledge economy pays more attention to harmonious cooperation with nature and environment. On this basis, green consumption will become a trend and meet the objective requirements of environmental protection, and green trade will be greatly developed.
(2) Developing countries will become an important driving force for international trade. After decades of struggle after the Second World War, some developing countries (regions) have made remarkable achievements in the goal of industrialization, and their economic structures are rapidly converging to developed countries, playing a very prominent role in international trade. China, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries will play an important role. 1The 28th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting held in July, 1995 indicated that the participating countries will fully support the establishment of the ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2003, when there will be a big market with a population of about 470 million. Although 1997 Asian financial crisis has dealt a great blow to ASEAN, judging from the current situation, ASEAN has recovered from the blow and its role in international trade cannot be underestimated. At the same time, it must be an important market for big trading countries.
Although the above-mentioned developing countries (regions) cannot be in the same position as developed countries in international trade, the adjustment of new economy and industrial structure will greatly promote the development of their national economy. With the gradual development of the new international economic order, some more advanced developing countries will surely become an important driving force for future international trade.
(e) Capital will accelerate its global flow and become an important force that cannot be ignored in the economic development of all countries.
Reflecting on the two major financial crises in the 1990s (Mexican crisis and Asian crisis), financial reforms in various countries will be gradually completed, which will be conducive to the stability of international financial markets and promote international capital flows. The international division of labor with high technology, information and knowledge as its content will also promote the rapid flow of capital around the world. The rapid flow of capital around the world may have an impact on the economic development of various countries far beyond the 20th century. In the next 15 years, the euro is expected to establish its status as an international currency and form a tripartite confrontation with the US dollar and the Japanese yen. (End)