Recently, many netizens found that there was a retaliatory price increase in the local catering industry (the original discount was gone and the price of vegetables was more expensive).
Then, after the epidemic situation gradually eases and ends, will there also be retaliatory price rebound of automobiles as bulk consumer goods? If we look at the relationship between supply and demand in the market, the automobile market will also have a high probability of a round of price increase (preferential reduction).
the supply of car companies is short
from the supply level.
The epidemic in China in February, especially in Hubei province, caused most automakers to stop production and work. Dongfeng Passenger Cars, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda and Shenlong Automobile in Wuhan did not gradually resume work until the end of March.
Although other car companies, including FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM, GAC Toyota, Geely, Great Wall, Chang 'an, etc., are optimistic about the epidemic control in their areas, Wuhan, as an automobile city, also has some domestic auto parts manufacturers, such as Valeo, Borg Warner, Bosch, Weibas, Garrett, etc., which supply the whole country, and the vehicle production of most independent brands and joint venture brands is affected to some extent.
When China's automobile industry is back on the right track, the European and American automobile markets have stopped because of the global spread of the epidemic. The recent statement by CEO of Volkswagen Group, Diss, that "there is no revenue outside the China market", whether it is exaggerated or not, really reflects the production, supply and sales situation of overseas car companies.
for example, in Europe, the five countries with the worst epidemic-Italy, Spain, Germany, France and Britain-account for 68% of the total number of cars in Europe. Multinational industry giants Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, PSA, FCA and Renault have successively announced the closure of vehicle manufacturing plants in Europe and North America, and Bosch and China have subsequently suspended the production of European factories. The shutdown of more than 1,111 automobile-related industries has had a great impact on the domestic automobile supply of these luxury brands and imported brands.
some time ago, it was reported in the media that BMW cancelled the production plans of some models ordered by customers due to capacity problems, including F52 (domestic 1-series sedan version), G28 (domestic 3-series long-axis version), G38 (domestic 5-series long-axis version) and G18 (domestic X3). Subsequently, many BMW dealers reduced terminal concessions and began to implement new quotations.
it is not difficult to understand that the reason behind the reduction or cancellation of terminal discounts of BMW brilliance 4S store is the insufficient market supply. This is not a case. Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Audi have also started to implement new quotations after BMW. With the vast majority of dealers digesting the inventory in February, the supply pressure of luxury brands, especially imported models, will increase in April and May.
user demand growth
from the perspective of market demand.
on the one hand, there is a consumer market.
according to the data of the Federation of Passenger Cars, the cumulative retail sales in the domestic passenger car market in the first quarter of this year was only 3.114 million, down 41.8% year-on-year, while the sales volume in the same period last year was over 5.2 million. The Federation estimates that the cumulative sales loss is about 2.19 million units, but this part of the loss is not a structural decline, but is affected by the epidemic, and consumers just need to lag behind the purchase time, which means that the sales volume of about 2 million will be concentrated in the second quarter or the third quarter.
on the other hand, consumer psychology.
just like the retaliatory consumption in the catering industry and the retaliatory travel in the tourism industry, consumers who have been suppressed at home for two months will face a wave of retaliatory just-needed consumption in the automobile market under the wave of cloud live broadcast by manufacturers and marketing brainwashing in online exhibition halls.
not only that, but also the impact of the epidemic will give birth to a number of new needs: because public transportation makes people inconvenient and uneasy, it will force those users who were not in a hurry to buy a car to spend in advance; At the same time, car owners will also have the idea of buying because of problems such as space, configuration, air environment inside the car and driving comfort.
recently, J.D. Power released the "investigation report on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic on consumers' willingness to buy a car". The survey results show that:
some consumers' enthusiasm for buying cars was stimulated by the epidemic situation. Nearly half of unplanned car buyers consider buying a car, and 25.1% of planned car buyers buy a car in advance.
an invisible hand
Of course, unlike the catering industry where Haidilao is located, China's automobile industry does not completely rely on the price system of market competition. As a mass consumer product second only to real estate, automobiles are strictly regulated by policies, and the introduction of each policy directly affects the volume and price changes of the automobile consumption market.
On February 3rd, Foshan, Guangdong Province took the lead in introducing measures to purchase "National Six" standard displacement cars from local automobile sales enterprises, and give each car a financial subsidy ranging from 2,111 to 5,111 yuan, becoming the first city to introduce an automobile consumption incentive policy in 2121.
Subsequently, eight cities issued relevant policies, with specific measures covering many aspects, such as encouraging the relaxation of traditional car license plates, encouraging the consumption of "National Six" standard models, encouraging trade-in, promoting cars to the countryside, and giving subsidies to related models, especially new energy vehicles.
At the executive meeting in the State Council on March 31th, it was clearly pointed out that in order to promote automobile consumption, firstly, the purchase subsidy and purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles were extended for two years; Second, the central government adopts awards instead of subsidies to support key areas such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to eliminate diesel trucks with national emission standards of Grade III and below; The third is to sell used cars to used car distribution enterprises, and the value-added tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 1.5% of sales from May 1 to the end of 2123.
Among them, the reduction and exemption of purchase tax is the most direct and immediate policy. In 2119, the reduction and exemption directly led to a sharp increase of 46.2% in domestic automobile sales, as did car purchase subsidies. In addition, "cars going to the countryside" can more or less boost the consumption potential of fourth-and fifth-tier cities, and the adjustment of taxes and fees for used cars is believed to increase the trading volume of the used car market.
In short, it can be clearly seen that the focus of the policy in 2121 is "promoting automobile consumption". That is to further stimulate consumer demand and boost sales.
Therefore, based on the relationship between supply and demand in the market, the supply of car companies is shrinking, the market demand is further expanding, and the supply is less than demand. In addition, with the government backing, the overall price of the car market will increase to a certain extent (the discount will shrink). Of course, there will be differences between different brands and different models.
which brands and models will increase their prices?
first of all, the discount range of luxury brands is most likely to be reduced.
Taking BBA as an example, some media reported that the number of customers arriving at 4S stores of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi increased significantly, basically reaching the number before the epidemic. The sales of Mercedes-Benz 4S store said:
"Now there are more people, and the price has also increased a little. Now the discount for C261 is around 41,111, and the previous discount is even bigger";
BMW sales said:
"Since the end of March, the price of 325 long shaft has increased by about 5,111 yuan. Now the order should have been placed in July, and the price increase is natural";
the Audi 4S store in Tomb-Sweeping Day also narrowed the decline of main models such as A4L and A6L.
Imported brands have a greater impact. Due to the out-of-control epidemic in Europe and the United States, there will be great fluctuations from vehicle production to supply chain system, which will further affect the production capacity. Things are rare and expensive, and prices will naturally rise. Porsche and Lexus also experienced different degrees of increase.
Secondly, the prices of hot-selling models also tend to fluctuate upwards.
B-class cars such as Accord and Camry, and A-class cars such as Civic and LaVida failed to keep up with the increase in demand, and there were some fluctuations. Take Guangben Accord as an example, the current cash discount is about 1,111 yuan, while the discount before the epidemic was 1.5 million yuan (different concessions in different regions).
thirdly, car companies follow suit to raise prices (reducing the preferential margin).
it is not excluded that some car companies adopt the same market strategy because they see other car companies reduce the preferential margin. During the epidemic, car companies have increased their incentives for sales. After the epidemic, with the increase of car buyers, it is normal to reduce the incentives.
Summary
Therefore, based on the change of market supply and demand and policy orientation, we believe that the price increase (reduction of preferential margin) in a certain range is a high probability event after the epidemic ends, and even the retaliatory rebound of some hot-selling cars and luxury imported cars is not ruled out.
For those consumers who just need or want to buy a car, Tianyajun suggests buying a car as soon as possible, in order to avoid the reduction of the preferential rate of the car price and pay more for the car, and in order to avoid retaliatory consumption in the later period and the increase of passenger flow, which will affect the service quality of your car purchase; Third, the production capacity of hot-selling models is affected, and it may take longer to pick up the car later.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.