After the National Development and Reform Commission issued the first-level warning for the Spring Festival, the national pig price continued to fall, not surprisingly.
A week ago, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a second-level warning of excessive drop in the price of pig food, preparing to store and store frozen pork to support the market. Unexpectedly, on February 6, the whole country ushered in a real first-class warning of pig food price comparison, and the National Development and Reform Commission officially announced the start of purchasing and storage to boost the pig market!
On February 6th, the National Development and Reform Commission reported-65438+1During the week from October 30th to February 3rd, the national average price of pig food was 4.96: 1, which entered the early warning range of "improving the government's pork reserve control mechanism and doing a good job in ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pork market".
The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will start the work of purchasing and storing frozen pork in the central government, and guide all localities to purchase and store frozen pork simultaneously.
This means that pork storage is in full swing and will soon land on the market.
Judging from the experience of pork purchasing and storage in the past, the total amount of one-time purchasing and storage by relevant departments will not be too large, but it still has a certain boosting effect on the market. Especially two days before and after purchasing and storage, we can see that the price of pigs has rebounded slightly. It is recommended that farmers seize the opportunity to go public in due course.
Because once the Lantern Festival is over, it means that the Spring Festival holiday is completely over, most migrant workers in the country have returned to work, and the catering industry has also recovered rapidly. At this moment, the low price of pigs is not only because everyone has a low desire for pork. After all, eating pork outside is the most common meat dish! The bigger reason is that the big pigs on hand were still consumed at the end of last year.
Therefore, farmers should pay attention to the fact that with the future storage, the price of pigs will rebound slightly, and they must not continue to press the bar, thinking that the price of pigs will rise step by step! The production capacity of the fence has extended the recovery period of pig prices as a whole.
Many farmers believe that it is not terrible for pig prices to fall to the bottom. What they are most afraid of is that the pig price has been "grinding the bottom", which has caused the pig farms that should have been de-productive to continue to be hard-shouldered, which has increased the burden on the entire supply market and led to the extension of the pig price downturn! According to the monitoring of relevant departments, according to the current price and cost, the average loss of pig breeding heads in the future is 274.52 yuan.
However, behind the fact that the average head loss is close to that of 300 yuan, it should be noted that pig enterprises with large production capacity have obvious cost advantages, and some pig farms are doomed to lose more! According to readers' feedback, many small and medium-sized pig farms and retail investors have losses above 500 yuan/head!
However, farmers need not panic. The pig industry has its own periodic operation, and there are also hidden profit opportunities in the downturn. In the future, as we overcome the "two major crises", we will naturally have a "great advantage"!
First, the climate has a far-reaching impact on agricultural development, and so does animal husbandry! In February and March of 2023, the cold in late spring has already arrived. A week ago, the temperature in some areas even appeared "the weather changed overnight and plummeted by 20℃"!
The sudden drop of temperature caused by the cold in late spring can easily lead to diarrhea or other symptoms of piglets, which will eventually reduce the health level of piglets and affect their overall growth performance! However, it must be noted that although the pig price is low at this time, it will not be until the second half of 2023 after the piglets are raised at this stage. There will be a high probability that the price of pigs will rise by then. Therefore, farmers must attach great importance to overcoming the immediate "low temperature crisis" in order to retain Xiaojin pig.
Second, the situation in Russia and Ukraine will affect global food prices in 2022. Just two weeks ago, Russia attacked an important food port in Ukraine, and the tension between the two sides continued unabated, posing a potential crisis to global food trade!
In addition, the Ukrainian Agricultural Producers Union itself also said that due to farmers' lack of money and power outages, the corn planting area in Ukraine may drop by 30% to 35% in 2023.
Ukrainian industrial officials said that it is expected that Ukraine's grain output will decline in 2023, which may lead to a shortage of domestic supply and trigger discussions on export bans.
In other words, Ukraine, as one of the important "granaries" in the world, will still have a grain export crisis in 2023; Moreover, for food manufacturers in Europe and America, there is a strong will to "speculate on the food crisis and drive up food prices", and it is difficult to guarantee that this method will not be repeated in 2023.
However, crises are always accompanied by opportunities for development. On the one hand, the feed industry is accelerating "reduction substitution", making feed costs more capable of hedging the food price crisis! On the other hand, the country is also vigorously expanding the import channels of corn, reducing imports from some countries that like to "drive up prices" and turning to new cooperation and new channels.
It is reported that China currently holds 3.7 million tons of American corn contracts, which will be delivered in 2022/23, a significant decrease of 70% compared with last year! According to customs data, in June 5438+ 10 and June 5438+065438+ 10, 2022, the United States only exported about 600,000 tons of corn to China every month, the lowest monthly import in two years.
And in June 5438 +20231October, with the arrival of the first cargo ship carrying Brazilian corn, it officially means that China and Brazil have started deep cooperation and win-win in corn trade.
In fact, as early as last May, China re-signed the phytosanitary protocol with Brazil, and updated the list of 1 136 Brazilian corn exporters in early October.
Of course, if the international situation pushes up food prices, it will still affect feed prices. In short, it is only a matter of degree! Therefore, for farmers, we should see that the state will try its best to guarantee and stabilize corn prices, but at the same time, we should also do a good job of "increasing efficiency and reducing costs" to cope with possible cost challenges.
A big plus In addition to the above two major crises, in fact, many farmers are still facing a big plus.
At present, the price of piglets is low, and the piglet market is still low, and many people are still on the sidelines.
This reflects everyone's caution about the follow-up market. Judging from the general trend of the industry, this is also the embodiment of healthy development!
But as far as the pig market is concerned, the average price of piglets in China is about 33.5 yuan/kg at present, which is really a good thing for farmers who need to buy fattening, because it only costs 335 yuan to buy a1kg piglet at this time! And observing the piglet price curve, it is not difficult to find that there is still room for a slight decline in the subsequent piglet price, and then it will bottom out and rebound!
According to the author's analysis, the piglets acquired at this time have an advantage in cost. If they are slaughtered after fattening for 5 months, they may just meet the rising period of pig prices! This is an important positive market.
In addition, farmers should pay attention to a signal that the warming pace of piglets will be slightly faster than that of fat pigs. That is to say, if we see a strong warming of piglet prices in the future, we can basically judge that pig prices are about to pick up.
In fact, the biggest disadvantage of pig price change is not productivity, but mood! The influence of emotional factors at the breeding end leads to the disorder of pig cycle, and it is difficult for many senior pig farmers to control the change of pig price.
Therefore, we must be in awe of the market. No matter what kind of views you hold, whether you are bullish or bearish, you should be cautious and moderate in business operations, and at the same time have a certain countercurrent psychology!
The market that everyone thinks is right is probably a trap. ........