The latest macro data shows that the economic operation has improved, but the current economic structure is still unbalanced, which is mainly manifested in the fact that supply is better than demand and external demand is better than domestic demand. Under the background that production continues to pick up, industrial added value continues to pick up, PMI returns to the expansion range, and energy consumption is under dual control, energy production is obviously accelerated, and downstream production willingness is enhanced. On the demand side, consumption did not perform well under the high base of last year's epidemic disturbance, and the boost to consumption by the Double Eleven was obviously weaker than in previous years. The manufacturing industry still plays a supporting role in fixed assets investment, and the issuance of government bonds for infrastructure investment has accelerated. However, due to the quality requirements of compaction project, the time lag of project use adjustment, lifelong accountability and other reasons, it is difficult to add the weather factor at the end of the year, and the real estate investment has picked up after the policy revision. In terms of foreign trade, the import and export data exceeded expectations, but the price is still the main contributing factor.
From the perspective of macro-control, the pattern of "establishing first and then breaking" has gradually taken shape, and the previous "one size fits all" policy of dual control of energy consumption has been corrected; The main line of real estate financialization remains unchanged, but it pursues short-term market stability and meets the reasonable financing needs of the real estate industry; A tight fiscal policy will be implemented during the year, and the intensity will be appropriately advanced in 2023. 65438+February, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward clear requirements for steady growth. In the first quarter of 2023, there is a high probability of opening credit, and the economy is expected to achieve a "good start".
On the whole, domestic demand is still weak, and external demand has certain support for supply. Affected by this, the leading economic index is still slowly declining, and the pressure of economic growth cannot be ignored. Implementing cross-cycle and counter-cycle control policies, such as pre-policy rectification and recent RRR reduction, is conducive to saving energy for economic growth.
Energy consumption, price stability and supply security have all been controlled and rectified to promote the sustained recovery of industrial production.
165438+ 10 month, the year-on-year reading of industrial production continued to pick up slightly, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.8% compared with the month of 65438+ 10 month. Judging from the three categories of industrial production, mining and electric hot water industry are still the main driving forces for the rebound of industrial production. The mining industry increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with the previous value of 6.0%. Electric hot water growth 1 1. 1%, previous value11%. The high level of both is related to the rectification of energy consumption double control. Under the background of increasing energy price and supply, the production of energy industry has obviously accelerated. The manufacturing industry grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, which is still at a low level, but there are signs of recovery. Structurally, high-tech manufacturing continues to lead growth. 1 1 month, the year-on-year growth rate of high-tech industry is 15. 1%, which is much higher than the overall 3.8% of the industry. From the perspective of sub-industries, the willingness to produce in the downstream of the industrial production chain generally rebounded. The main reason is that the dual control of energy consumption has achieved remarkable results in rectification and stable supply across the board, and the decline in raw material prices has driven the profit margin of downstream enterprises to rebound.
The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, the service industry declined slightly, and the marginal economic operation at the production end improved. 1 1 In the current month, the PMI of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries was 50. 1% and 52.3%, which were 0.9 and -0. 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, respectively. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range after two months, the first time since March. On the supply side, the PMI production index for the month was 52.0%, which was 1 1, up 3.6 percentage points over the same period of last year.
In terms of import and export, the year-on-year growth rates of export and import were 22.0% and 3 1.7%, respectively, both higher than the market consensus expectations. Since the beginning of this year, the main reason for the strong export toughness is that external demand has better support for exports; Domestic import demand has been boosted and energy imports have recovered strongly, releasing the signal of economic recovery. It should still be noted that price is still the core support of import and export growth. 1 1 in the current month, the export price index was 108. 1, up10.5% year-on-year; The import price index is above 1 10. Since April, the import price index has been higher than 1 10 for seven consecutive months. Looking back, exports are still flexible and the trade surplus is expected to remain high. However, due to the high base in the same period last year, the actual pull on the economy may be limited.
Figure 2: Imports and exports exceeded expectations, and the trade surplus remained high.
Figure 3: Import and export price index is still at a high level, and price is still the main contribution factor of import and export.
Figure 4: The consumption of food and beverage has declined, and the automobile retail has a warming trend.
The growth rate of fixed assets investment has dropped again, and manufacturing is the core kinetic energy to support fixed assets investment.
The year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment continued to decline. 1- 1 1, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 5.2% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous value.
First, real estate investment increased by 6.4% on average in two years, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous value. Part of the reason is that the base increased in the same period last year, but the weak growth momentum in that month was a more important drag. The direct reason is that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly started housing area in that month was negative for the fifth consecutive month, and the decline continued to expand. From the main line of economic development, "de-real estate" has become a trend, the long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control is continuing to play a role, and the core kinetic energy of economic development is gradually shifting to manufacturing. It is worth noting that the economic operation faced great pressure during the year. Judging from the policy tone conveyed by a series of recent meetings, there is a strong demand for stability in the real estate market in the short term. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to accelerate the development of the long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of affordable housing, and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. From a macro perspective, the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the short term is the main theme, and the real estate investment forecast in 2023 need not be too pessimistic.
Second, infrastructure investment increased by 0.5% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.6%. The late issuance of special bond funds in the second half of the year did not bring about a substantial increase in infrastructure growth. 5,438+The Central Economic Work Conference in February and June will clarify the policy rhythm of "establishing first and then breaking", repair the mismatch between supply and demand of bulk commodities, lower prices and gradually reduce the disturbance to infrastructure. However, the impact during the year is still limited, and the construction at the end of the year is greatly disturbed by regional and weather factors, so it is still difficult to make efforts in June 5438+February. In 2023, the fiscal policy will make efforts ahead of schedule to stabilize economic growth, and the superimposed commodity prices will fall with a high probability, and the factors that hinder the development of infrastructure will be removed. In 2023, the infrastructure development of Q 1 is expected.
Third, manufacturing investment increased year-on-year.
Long 13.7%, with an average growth rate of 3.8% in two years, maintaining a high level. During the year, manufacturing investment will maintain a strong momentum, supporting investment in fixed assets. It should be noted that since the beginning of this year, the economy has achieved certain results in getting rid of excessive dependence on real estate, and the development resources are tilted towards manufacturing. However, the upward and downward speed between real estate and manufacturing industry is not balanced, and the gap is large, which shows that the downward pressure on the economy will increase in the short term. Looking forward to the future, the demand for stability in the real estate market will increase, investment may partially return to real estate, and subsequent manufacturing investment is expected to decline slightly.
Figure 5: Manufacturing industry is the main support for investment in fixed assets.
Figure 6: Real estate development funds continue to decline, but the slope has improved.
CPI breaks 2, PPI—CPI scissors gap narrows, and the potential risk of inflation is reduced.
In June 5438+065438+ 10, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI rose to 2.3%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that in June 5438+ 10, and 0.4% higher than the previous value. 165438+ 10, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI dropped to 12.9%, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous value and 0% higher than the previous month.
CPI rose to 2.3%, but most of it was caused by a low base. Food did not pull CPI as expected, nor did non-food items. In terms of food, farmers are reluctant to sell during the peak consumption season in winter, and pork is up by 1 12.2% month-on-month, and food items are delayed. However, under the policy of ensuring supply, the constraints on the supply side of vegetables have obviously slowed down, and the chain increase has dropped by 9.8 percentage points to 6.8%, which is the main reason for the decline in the increase of food items. In terms of non-food, the supporting role of energy consumer goods on non-food is reduced. From June 5438 to February, the price of pork remained stable, while the price of vegetables decreased steadily. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also said that pork prices will remain at the current level, and it is unlikely to rise sharply, and the pull of non-food on CPI tends to weaken. Against the background of the base increase in June 5438+February, it is expected that the CPI growth rate may decline.
The pull of means of production on PPI is obviously weakened. In June 165438+ 10, the PPI peaked year-on-year and fell back to 12.9%, which was 0% from the previous month. The pull of means of production on PPI decreased rapidly, and the increase of means of subsistence increased slightly, but the impact on PPI was relatively small. In the month of 65438+February, oil prices rebounded and domestic coal prices remained stable. As domestic measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply continue to play an effective role, and overseas supply chains gradually become smooth, PPI has become easier than last year.
Figure 7: PPI-CPI scissors difference narrows
The growth rate of social integration has stabilized.
1 1 trillion in the month, social financing increased by 478.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase of national debt financing increased to 4158 billion yuan year-on-year, and corporate bonds increased by 326.4 billion yuan year-on-year. /kloc-RMB loans increased in October/October 1 1.27 trillion yuan, less than last month160.5 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 decreased from rising to 8.5%, and the growth rate of M 1 rose slightly to 3%, ending the downward trend for nine consecutive months. M2-M 1 scissors difference has been reduced. In the reading of social financing of 1 1.3 trillion yuan, the increase of in-kind loans is 1.3 trillion yuan, which is the main drag. The main reason is that the transition period of the new asset management regulations is coming to an end, and the scale of off-balance sheet financing continues to shrink. The performance of national debt is bright, special bonds are issued as scheduled, and the financing side is obviously picking up. In June, 5438+065438+ 10, new RMB loans were lower than expected, and residents' medium and long-term loans continued to strengthen, increasing by 77.2 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting that the reasonable financing demand of real estate was met with the relaxation of the previous real estate regulation and control policies, and the improvement of financing side indicated that the real estate sales side would gradually stabilize. Medium-and long-term loans in the enterprise sector increased by 247 billion yuan year-on-year, showing a sharp decrease, and bill financing is still the main driver of corporate loans.
Figure 8: In June 165438+ 10, government financing rebounded significantly, higher than the same period last year.
Policy forces are appropriately advanced, and stable economic growth has become a short-term main task.
In February 65438, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that while fully affirming the achievements, we should see that China's economic development faces triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations. The meeting will set the economic work next year as "stable", demanding that the word be stable, strive for progress in stability, and appropriately advance the policy. Under the background of the 20th National Congress, "persisting in taking economic construction as the center" has been put forward again, which means that stabilizing economic growth has become an important task and hard requirement for next year.
First of all, fiscal policy will be more active and moderately ahead of schedule. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that "a proactive fiscal policy should improve efficiency, pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability" and put forward "ensuring fiscal expenditure and speeding up expenditure progress; Implement a new tax reduction and fee reduction policy. " It is expected that the progress of fiscal expenditure will accelerate in 2023. Combined with the action of the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) 165438+ on June 24th, the fiscal policy will be advanced next year. Under the requirements of strict fiscal discipline and resolutely curbing new hidden debts, it is difficult for local governments to promote infrastructure development, and the probability of development is mainly concentrated in the first quarter.
Second, the monetary policy is stable and loose, and the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is exerted. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that "a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and liquidity should be reasonable and sufficient". The expression of "flexibility and moderation" appeared in the deployment of monetary policy in 20 16 and 2020, both corresponding to the years of wide currency and wide credit, which means that the space for RRR reduction and interest rate reduction of monetary policy in 2023 has been opened. It is worth noting that the meeting added that "fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross-cycle and countercyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined", pointing to the high probability of combining fiscal policy and monetary policy in 2023, and the high probability of monetary policy cooperating with local debt issuance to form a joint force.
Third, the structural characteristics of monetary policy are obvious, and targeted wide credit will further exert its strength. Quality and generalized credit are the main means to promote the revitalization of the real economy. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that micro, science and technology and green are the main directions of monetary policy support next year and the focus of structural regulation. 65438+February 65438+June 6, the central bank held a symposium on the analysis of the monetary and credit situation of financial institutions, and proposed that "it is necessary to increase the inter-cycle adjustment, make overall consideration of the connection between this year and next, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically matching the nominal economic growth rate". We believe that "reasonable and sufficient liquidity" is more reflected in the level of wide credit. Combined with the launch of carbon emission reduction support tools this year, it is expected that financing support for small and micro, technology and green enterprises will become the main way of wide credit next year.
This article comes from Everbright Trust.
Related Q&A: Related Q&A: What is macro-environmental analysis? What does macro-environmental analysis include? The key elements in macro-environmental analysis include: political and legal environmental factors, economic environmental factors, social and natural environmental factors and technical environmental factors. The purpose of macro-environmental analysis is to determine the key factors that affect industries and enterprises in the macro-environment, and to predict the future changes of these key factors, as well as the degree and nature, opportunities and threats of these changes to enterprises.
(1) Political and legal environmental factors include: political factors that restrict and influence enterprises; Legal system, regulations and legal environment.
(2) Economic environment factors include: economic structure, economic growth rate, fiscal and monetary policies, energy and transportation costs; Consumption tendency and disposable income, unemployment rate, inflation and austerity, interest rate, exchange rate, etc.
(3) Environmental factors in society and nature include: education level, lifestyle, social values and customs, consumption habits, employment, etc. Population, land, resources, climate, ecology, transportation, infrastructure, environmental protection, etc.
(4) Technological environment factors include: innovation mechanism, investment in science and technology, overall level of technology, speed and life cycle of technology development, investment of competitors in R&D, quality level and treatment of social and technical talents, etc.
The four aspects of enterprise macro-environmental factors can be reflected by graphics.
In addition to the political environment, company A should also consider the current economic environment when acquiring company B. Because a company has already made other high-value mergers and acquisitions before the acquisition, its financial situation is not ideal. At this time, large-scale mergers and acquisitions will bring certain pressure to enterprises in terms of capital turnover; In addition, the low global aluminum price may have a negative impact on the operating performance of Company A after its acquisition.