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In the first part, the mobile phone market has peaked, and the stock market has replaced the incremental market.

20 19 smartphone market in the first quarter:

China's market shrank by 3% year-on-year, the worst market performance in six years, and the long-awaited winter for the mobile phone industry has arrived.

Huawei grew against the trend, and its shipments soared by 50%, surpassing Apple and becoming the second largest smartphone distributor in the world.

Millet has the biggest decline, with a decrease of 13%.

OPPO and vivo both declined slightly.

Source: Zhihu Gu Xiaoshuai

In 20 18, the sales volume, sales volume and profit of Xiaomi's mobile phone were far lower than those of its competitors, ranking at the bottom of the top four.

Sino data (domestic shipments) shows that in 20 18, Huawei shipped 64.9 million mobile phones, HONOR shipped 54.27 million, and Xiaomi shipped 47.96 million, that is, the glory brand led Xiaomi 13.2%.

The year-on-year shipment growth rate of Glory 20 18 is also higher than that of Xiaomi, reaching 13%, and Xiaomi is 7%.

Glory sales reached 78.3 billion, Xiaomi 65.9 billion, and Xiaomi sales were far less than those of several major competitors.

Xiaomi reached the market share of 15% in 20 14 and 20 15 years, ranking first in China market.

In 20 16, Huawei quickly became the first domestic mobile phone, while VIVO and OPPO also surpassed Xiaomi.

This means that since 20 15, although the overall sales volume of Xiaomi has been rising, it has been stagnant or regressing (in terms of market share and competitors).

Since 20 19, the stock market has replaced the incremental market. The stock market means a market that hits the nail on the head, either you die or I die.

Persimmons are always soft, and domestic mobile phones have begun to compete with each other.

IQOO of vivo, realme of OPPO, and one plus seven all began to seize the cost-effective market.

We can't help thinking that in 20 1 1 year, JD.COM fought a book price war, directly killing Dangdang in its own base area, which led to Dangdang's decline until it was acquired. Since then, JD.COM has made great strides forward and become the largest B2C enterprise in China.

Xiaomi stood in do or die.

The second part Xiaomi mode and the ultimate cost performance

"Who is Xiaomi?"

Xiaomi is an Internet company with mobile phone, intelligent hardware and Internet of Things platform as its core.

To put it simply, Xiaomi's model is a combination of Amazon+Costco+MUJI, that is, the most cost-effective and high-tech grocery store in internet plus is connected with IOT (Internet of Things) to form Xiaomi's own unique model.

This is a model that Xiaomi has always been proud of.

The core of Xiaomi IOT ecosystem lies in the number of smart device connections. The increase in the number of customers and suppliers will greatly increase the number of smart device connections, which will lead to a rapid reduction in the maintenance cost of the IOT platform and a great increase in user stickiness.

Image source: Zhihu Luo Wei

Image source: Zhihu Luo Wei

Xiaomi has always positioned itself as an internet company, an "internet company" that does not rely on hardware for profit, rather than a mobile phone company.

Lei Jun said before listing that the comprehensive after-tax net profit rate of the overall hardware business does not exceed 5%.

Under this mode and thinking, Xiaomi no longer relies solely on hardware to obtain the main profit, but quickly accumulates and expands the user base by controlling the cost performance brought by hardware profits, bringing high activity, high conversion and sustained high retention rate (staying on Xiaomi IOT platform). Internet users.

Relying on cost-effective weapons, Xiaomi quickly penetrated into several core categories: mobile phones, e-commerce, Internet services and other hardware, and launched a strong category expansion. Television ranks first in China, while bracelets, mobile power supplies, air purifiers and balance cars rank first in the world.

I have to say that Xiaomi's model is forward-looking and innovative.

Xiaomi's ecosystem has taken shape and become one of the double cornerstones of Xiaomi. From the perspective of growth momentum and contribution to profits, IOT and consumer business have surpassed the mobile phone business. And there is huge room for imagination in the future.

It can be said that two-thirds of the current market value of Xiaomi is supported by the Xiaomi ecological chain.

But the core of this system depends on Xiaomi mobile phone, which is not only the future control center of AIoT strategy, but also the terminal carrier of Internet service.

The mobile phone business is to Lei Jun what the search engine is to Li Yanhong.

The mobile phone has become a BUG in Xiaomi mode!

Lei Jun believes that Internet thinking+ultimate cost performance, mobile phones can naturally be the first in the industry.

Indeed, in 20 14 and 20 15 years, Xiaomi mobile phone reached its peak moment, and domestic mobile phone was the first.

But it was quickly left behind by Huawei, OPPO, VIVO and glory.

Why?

The third part is the essence of the mobile phone industry, which deviates from the essence of the mobile phone industry.

We must start from the essence of the mobile phone industry and find the answer.

What is a mobile phone?

Fashion consumer electronics!

1, fashion, social

In the hands of modern people, the mobile phone is not only a mobile phone, but also the most important thing to carry with you, the "new organ" of human beings.

Keep your hands on your body, use them anytime and anywhere, and use them in public places and social networks, which has strong psychological value and emotional appeal.

Then it must be fashionable, classy and face-saving, and it must not be low.

People endow mobile phones with life, value, ideas and emotions. In turn, mobile phones bring people a symbol of identity, status and even values.

Once such a concept is formed in society, it is not conducive to brands that emphasize cost performance.

Xiaomi itself, not only has been backward in image and appearance, but also has always been cost-effective in brand building, and does not have a brand name with consumers.

2. Electronics

Mobile phones are high-tech products in the eyes of ordinary consumers.

Consumers don't know the technical content of many technologies promoted by manufacturers. Only when they really see and feel them will they realize that they are great and high-tech. Especially in the third, fourth, fifth and below areas, this phenomenon is more common.

This is why even if the performance of Kirin processor is not as good as that of Xiaolong processor, consumers still recognize that Huawei's technology is better than Xiaomi Niu.

In the third, fourth and fifth line markets, consumers will think that OPPO and VIVO mobile phones have strong technology!

Consumers have not made it clear because of the transparency of information on the Internet!

The publicity mode of Xiaomi's running score and performance score is only useful for first-and second-tier young consumers, and it also makes consumers ignore more technology and connotation.

3. Consumer goods

Mass consumer goods, which are used by everyone, are the attributes of mobile phone products, and consumers need to look around and buy them everywhere to solve the quality problems.

Mobile phones with a price of more than 2,000 yuan, especially in flagship machine with a price of about 3,000 yuan, have become an important big-ticket shopping for consumers, especially many young users, especially consumers in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities. What you really see and feel, the push of mobile phone shopkeepers, the demonstration of promoters and perfect after-sales are all factors to realize the purchase.

These directly evolved into the pain of Xiaomi's channel!

Since OPPO and VIVO entered the mobile phone industry in 2005, they have used the channel model of FMCG to build their own mobile phone distribution channels, and truly realized deep distribution.

The mobile phone industry is a complex, because IT combines the attributes of many industries, such as fashion attributes, IT attributes and FMCG attributes.

Mobile phones, for the psychology of most consumers, are consumer goods of fashion electronics.

Brand * * * is the most important and top level in the essential ladder of mobile phone industry, and it is also the main factor that determines whether an enterprise can succeed and grow continuously. The mobile phone industry must establish a brand * * * to satisfy consumers' identity and emotional demands.

Xiaomi can't do the best in these three aspects. Instead, it slipped in the opposite direction, deviating from the essence of the mobile phone industry.

Fashion, always unable to satisfy consumers' identity and emotional demands, is recognized by the public as cheap!

Electronics, the ultimate cost performance, has always been the biggest selling point of Xiaomi, no fever, the ultimate technology!

Consumer goods, the final cost-effective products, can only be sold through the Internet and some stores in first-and second-tier cities, and cannot be deeply distributed.