As the core of the semiconductor industry, integrated circuits account for 83% of the market. Due to its technical complexity, the industrial structure is highly specialized. With the rapid expansion of industrial scale and intensified industrial competition, the division of labor mode is further refined.
At present, the market industrial chain is IC design, IC manufacturing and IC packaging testing.
○ Core link: IC design is in the upstream of the industrial chain, IC manufacturing is in the midstream, and IC packaging is in the downstream.
○ The global integrated circuit industry has shifted from packaging and testing to manufacturing, with a clear division of labor in each link of the industrial chain.
○ From the initial IDM to no factory+OEM +OSAT.
▲ Income composition chart of global semiconductor industry chain
① Design:
There are bright spots in the subdivision field and insufficient design ability in the core key areas. From application categories (such as mobile phones to automobiles) to chip projects (such as processors to FPGA), the self-sufficiency rate of high-end key chips in China is almost zero, and it is still highly dependent on American companies;
② Equipment:
The self-sufficiency rate is low and the demand gap is large. At present, there has been a breakthrough in mid-range equipment, and a set of industrial chains have been initially laid out, but high-end processes/products still need to be overcome. China's local semiconductor equipment manufacturers account for only 1-2% of the global share, and still rely heavily on American enterprises in key fields such as deposition, etching, ion implantation and testing.
③ Materials:
It has reached the international level in the fields of target materials, but it still takes a long time to realize domestic substitution in high-end fields such as photoresist. The global semiconductor material market is $44.3 billion, and the supply of wafer manufacturing materials in China accounts for less than 10%, and some packaging materials account for more than 30%. It is ahead of the international market in some segments and has not achieved a breakthrough in high-end fields;
④ Manufacturing industry:
The global market is concentrated, and TSMC accounts for 60% of the market, which is relatively less affected by the trade war. The mainland ranks the second group, and global capacity expansion is concentrated in the mainland. The foundry industry presents a very obvious head effect. Among the top ten original equipment manufacturers in the world, TSMC has a market share of 60%. This industry is less affected by the trade war;
(5) Sealing test:
The first field that can be controlled independently. Domestic enterprises in the packaging and testing industry have good overall strength and strong competitiveness in the world. 17 years, the overall global market share of changdian+huatian+tongfu reached 19%, and the main competitor of the United States was only Amkor. This industry is less affected by the trade war.
I. Design
Geographically, the global integrated circuit design is still dominated by the United States, and Chinese mainland is an important participant. In 20 17, American IC design companies accounted for about 53% of the world's largest share. IC Insight predicts that this share will climb to about 69% after the new Broadcom moves its headquarters to the United States. IC design companies in Taiwan Province Province accounted for 65,438+06% of the total sales in 2065,438+07, which was the same as that in 2065,438+00. Last year, the IC sales of MediaTek, Yong Lian and Ruiyu all exceeded 654.38 billion US dollars, and they all ranked among the top 20 IC design companies in the world. European IC design companies only account for 2% of the global market share, and the fabless model in Japan and South Korea is not popular.
Compared with non-American overseas regions, China companies performed outstandingly. Among the top 50 fabless integrated circuit design companies in the world, the number of China companies has greatly increased, from 1 in 2009 to 10 in 20 17, showing a rapid catch-up trend. 20 17 among the top ten fabless IC manufacturers in the world, the United States has 7 seats, including Qualcomm, NVIDIA, Apple, AMD, Marvell, Broadcom and Xilinx; MediaTek in Taiwan Province Province of China is on the list, while Hayes and Ziguang in Chinese mainland are also on the list, ranking 7th and 10 respectively.
20 17 Top Ten Fable IC Design Manufacturers in the World
(millions of dollars)
However, although Hisilicon and Ziguang are on the list in Chinese mainland, we can see that Qualcomm, Broadcom and Man Mei Electronics account for more than 50% of their revenues in China, and their domestic high-end ic design capabilities are seriously inadequate. It can be seen that the domestic dependence on American companies in the field of core chip design is high.
Since the Sino-US trade war broke out, we can clearly see from the ZTE incident and Huawei incident that domestic design companies can provide almost zero products in the core high-end general-purpose chip field.
The gap between mainland high-end general-purpose chips and foreign advanced level is mainly reflected in four aspects:
1) The gap between domestic and foreign mobile processors is relatively small.
Ziguang Zhanrui and Huawei Hisilicon have entered the forefront of the world in terms of mobile processors.
2) Central Processing Unit (CPU) is the most difficult high-end chip to catch up with.
Intel almost monopolized the global market. There are about 3-5 domestic related enterprises, but they have not achieved commercial mass production, and most of them still rely on applying for scientific research project funds and government subsidies to maintain their operations. Although domestic CPU design enterprises such as Loongson can make CPU products, and may surpass foreign CPUs in single or partial indicators, they cannot compete with superior products due to the lack of industrial ecological support.
3) The memory gap between domestic and foreign countries is also large.
At present, there are mainly three types of memory chips in the world, namely DRAM, NAND Flash and Nor Flash according to sales volume. In the field of memory and flash memory, South Korea's Samsung and Hynix, IDM factory, have absolute advantages. By the end of 20 17, the total market share of these two fields is 75.7% and 49. 1% respectively, and the competition space of China manufacturers is extremely limited. Wuhan Changjiang storage has tried to develop 3D Nand Flash technology, but it is only in the sample stage of 32-layer flash memory, while global companies such as Samsung and Intel. In Nor flash, a small market of about $3.4 billion, Zhao Yi Innovation is one of the major participating manufacturers in the world. Other mainstream suppliers are Wang Hong in Taiwan Province Province, Cypress, Micron and Warburg in Taiwan Province Province.
4) High-end general-purpose chips such as 4)FPGA and AD/DA are very different at home and abroad.
Because these fields belong to general-purpose chips, R&D has a large investment and a long life cycle, and it is difficult to gather economic benefits in a short time, so the development of domestic companies is relatively slow, and even some fields are stagnant.
Generally speaking, the listed companies of chip design are the strongest in China. For example, in 20 17, Ding Hui Science and Technology surpassed FPC in the field of fingerprint identification chips to become the largest fingerprint IC provider in the global Android camp, and became the first domestic design chip in the field of consumer electronics segmentation. From the design business of integrated circuit chips, Sylvie gradually built a chip manufacturing platform, and extended the technology and manufacturing platform to the packaging field of power devices, power modules and MEMS sensors. However, compared with international semiconductor manufacturers, there is still a lot of room to catch up in the design ability, scale and profitability of high-end chips.
Second, the equipment
At present, the current situation of semiconductor equipment in China is that the low-end technology is replaced by domestic products, and the high-end technology needs to be broken through, with low self-sufficiency rate and large demand gap.
The technical barriers of key equipment are high, and the technology of the United States and Japan is leading. The share of CR 10 is close to 80%, showing an oligopoly situation. Semiconductor equipment is in the upstream of the industrial chain and runs through all aspects of semiconductor production. According to the process flow, it can be divided into four sections-wafer manufacturing equipment, testing equipment, packaging equipment and front-end related equipment. Among them, wafer manufacturing equipment accounts for 70% of the China market. More specifically, wafer manufacturing equipment can be divided into eight categories according to the process, among which mask aligner, etching machine and thin film deposition equipment occupy most of the semiconductor equipment market. At the same time, the equipment market is highly concentrated, and the output of mask aligner, CVD equipment, etching machine and PVD equipment is concentrated in the hands of a few European, American and Japanese giants.
The localization rate of semiconductor equipment in China is low, and the market share of local semiconductor equipment manufacturers only accounts for 1-2% of the global share.
The key equipment has not achieved a breakthrough in advanced technology. At present, the global research and development level of integrated circuit equipment is 12 inch 7nm, and the production level has reached 12 inch14 nm. . The domestic equipment research and development level is still at 12 inch 14 nanometer, and the production level is at 12 inch 65-28 nanometer. Generally speaking, there is a time difference of 2-6 years between domestic equipment and domestic advanced level in advanced technology; Specifically, the localization rate of 65/55/40/28nm mask aligner and 40/28nm chemical mechanical polishing machines is still zero, while the localization rate of 28nm chemical vapor deposition equipment and rapid annealing equipment is very low.
Third, materials.
Development course of semiconductor materials
▲ Main applications of representative materials of each generation.
▲ Technical maturity of the second and third generation semiconductor materials.
Subdivision areas have achieved overtaking in corners, and core areas have not yet achieved breakthroughs. Semiconductor materials are mainly divided into wafer manufacturing materials and packaging materials. Among the wafer manufacturing materials, silicon-based materials of silicon wafer machine account for the highest proportion, accounting for 365,438+0%, followed by photomask 65,438+04%, photoresist 5% and its supporting reagents 7%. Among the packaging materials, packaging substrate accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for 40%, followed by lead frame 16%, ceramic substrate 1 1%, and bonding wire 15%.
Japan and the United States dominate the global supply of semiconductor materials. The main players in each segment are: Silicon Wafer-Shinetsu, Sumco, Photoresist -Tok, Shipley, Electronic Air-Liquid, Praxair, CMP Dow, 3M, Lead Frame-Sumitomo Metal, Bonding Wire-Tanaka Precious Metal, Packaging Substrate-Panasonic, Plastic Packaging Materials-
(1) target, package substrate, CMP, etc. Our technology has reached the international advanced level and can be supplied in large quantities and localized immediately. A typical example of semiconductor materials being localized-target.
(2) Silicon wafer, electron gas, mask plate, etc. , internationally comparable in technology, but not yet available in large quantities.
(3) There is no breakthrough in photoresist technology, and it will take a long time to realize domestic substitution.
Fourth, manufacturing industry.
As a vital link in the semiconductor industry chain, wafer manufacturing technology directly affects the advanced level of the semiconductor industry. In the past two decades, the development of domestic wafer manufacturing has lagged behind, and it is expected to catch up quickly with the support of national policies and large funds in the future, which will effectively boost the technical density of the entire semiconductor industry chain.
Semiconductor manufacturing has a bayonet position in the semiconductor industry chain. Manufacturing industry is the core link in the industrial chain, and its position is self-evident. According to statistics, the value of each link in the industry is the largest, and the gross profit margin is also at a high level in the industry. Because no factory+OEM +OSAT has become a trend, the importance of OEM in the whole industrial chain has gradually increased. It can be said that OEM is a bayonet, and the output of production capacity is controlled by manufacturing enterprises.
According to the data of IC Insights, among the top ten OEMs in the world, TSMC occupies more than half of the market share, and the market share of the top eight in 2065438+2007 is close to 90%. At the same time, OEM manufacturing is mainly concentrated in East Asia, and there are few such companies in the United States, which is also related to industrial transfer and industrial division of labor. We believe that through capital investment and talent gathering, Chinese mainland may surpass OEM in the next decade.
"Made in China" should extend from downstream to upstream. On the route of technology transfer, semiconductor manufacturing is the technological fortress that "Made in China" has not yet conquered. China is a "big manufacturing country", but "Made in China" is mainly a complete machine product. In the most upstream field of "chip manufacturing", China still lags far behind the international leading level.
In the process of transferring from downstream manufacturing to "chip manufacturing", a number of wafer foundry enterprises with leading technology will inevitably emerge. In the early days of the chip trade war, the United States was the first to block and suppress China's manufacturing technology. While we strive to inherit the spirit of "two bombs and one satellite" and do our best, how to handle the relationship between TSMC and UMC, two advanced Taiwan-funded enterprises, will also have a greater butterfly effect on the subsequent development.
V. Sealing test
At present, Chinese mainland semiconductor industry has the strongest influence in the packaging and testing industry, and its market share is excellent. The market scale of leading enterprises Changdian Technology/Tongfu Microelectronics/Huatian Technology/Fang Jing Science and Technology has been continuously improved. Compared with companies in Taiwan Province Province, the overall growth potential of packaging and testing industry in Chinese mainland is not backward. Well-known IC design companies in Taiwan Province Province, such as MediaTek, Yong Lian and Ruiyu, have gradually transferred their local packaging and testing orders to their mainland counterparts. The packaging and testing industries in Taiwan Province Province, the United States and Chinese mainland are in a tripartite confrontation. Among them, Changdian Technology/Tongfu Microelectronics/Huatian Technology operates through capital mergers and acquisitions, and its market share ranks in the top ten in the world (the market size of Changdian Technology is the third in the world). The level of advanced packaging technology is basically synchronized with overseas leading enterprises, and advanced packaging technologies such as BGA, WLP and SiP can be successfully mass-produced.
Chinese mainland packaging and testing enterprises have good overall strength and strong competitiveness in the world. The main competitor of the United States is Amkor, and its business income in China accounts for about 65,438+08%. The market share of American packaging and testing industry is average. Among the top ten packaging test manufacturers, only Amkor is the only one. It should be said that the trade war has little impact on the whole packaging and testing industry. In the short, medium and long term, it is more likely that Amkor will replace its business.
The packaging and testing industry is located at the end of the semiconductor industry chain, with low added value, high labor intensity and low barriers to technology entry. Sun, a leading packaging and testing company, accounts for about 4% of its annual R&D expenditure, which is far lower than that of the world's leading semiconductor IC design, equipment and manufacturing enterprises. With the expansion of wafer foundry TSMC to the downstream packaging and testing industry, it will also pose a greater threat to traditional packaging and testing enterprises.
After 20 17-20 18, Chinese mainland's sealing and testing (OSAT) company will maintain rapid growth. At present, Changdian Technology/Tongfu Microelectronics has been able to provide high-end, high-margin products. In the next 3-5 years, the growth rate of CAGR in Chinese mainland will continue to exceed that of its global counterparts.