* * * of agricultural products is a fixed annual seasonal cycle of sowing, growth and harvest, and it is precisely this unique seasonal change of supply and demand of agricultural products that makes the trend of price fluctuation moving in the same direction in some specific periods of each year very obvious. Generally speaking, according to this seasonal feature, we can roughly divide the trend of agricultural products into several different stages: sowing growth stage, harvest season, off-season sales and peak sales season. Because futures prices are the guide of spot prices, their fundamental influencing factors are consistent and their trends are basically linked. Therefore, we take several varieties as examples to compare and analyze their futures price trends from the perspective of seasonal influencing factors:

First of all, take soybean varieties as an example. According to the laws of nature, the major soybean producing countries in the northern hemisphere start sowing in April every year and harvest in September of that year. From 10, the major soybean producing countries in the southern hemisphere began to sow again, and harvested in April and May of the following year. From this planting growth cycle, it can be concluded that July and August each year belong to the off-season of global soybean supply, and the soybean is green and yellow, and the consumer demand is strong, so the price is mostly high; Every year around 1 1 month is the peak season for global soybean supply, with sufficient spot supply and many low prices in the year. This rule is not difficult to be verified from the long-term trend of CBOT soybean market in the above figure.

Carefully observing the seasonal trend charts of CBOT and DCE soybeans in recent years, firstly, we can find that there is a strong correlation between soybean prices at home and abroad, and the main reason is that the adjustment of people's diet structure has caused the surge of soybean demand in China since 2000, and domestic soybeans are far from meeting the market consumption. Coupled with the high oil yield of imported soybeans, the number of imported soybeans has increased significantly, which has led to an increase in the linkage of soybean price trends at home and abroad; Secondly, we can also find that: from 2000 to now, the annual seasonal high points mostly appear in May-August, mainly because March-May is the peak season of sales, and July and August are the off-season, so it is not surprising that the high points appear during this period; In September-11month, the soybean harvest season entered. Due to the supply pressure, the price was at many low points in the year. After the output was determined, with the increase of consumption and the decrease of inventory, the price began to rise. However, every February is a holiday period, the market is light, and grain prices usually fall. These laws well verify the seasonal fluctuation trend of soybean prices. At present, it is in August, which is the off-season of supply, and due to the severe drought in Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing area in China, the domestic soybean production reduction is basically a foregone conclusion, and the recent weather in the soybean producing area of the United States is also very hot and dry, and the soybean weather market has once again appeared, which is expected to get out of a wave of rising market before the soybean harvest season comes. Therefore, according to this feature, it can be estimated that soybean may form a short-term high point before the supply pressure in September-11.

Then look at corn varieties, the growth cycle of corn and soybean is almost the same. From the above figure, we can find that the most obvious feature of corn is that the price mostly falls from midsummer to harvest. Due to the uncertainty of corn production in the new year, the price in July often reaches the highest price in the year. Even in the year when prices began to fall before mid-July, if the harvest prospects are considerable, prices can continue to fall. Every year 10 is the harvest season. Because a large number of corn are listed centrally, the market supply pressure is the greatest, and the price often falls to the lowest level in a year. Then, with the passage of time and continuous consumption, the stock of corn is getting less and less, and the price is also changing. The Agricultural Biomass Energy Industry Development Plan (2007~20 15) issued by the Ministry of Agriculture (hereinafter referred to as the Plan) puts forward that in the future, China's agricultural biomass energy industry should develop rural biogas vigorously, actively develop crop straw solidification and gasification fuel, moderately develop energy crops, and determine the development focus and industrial layout according to local conditions. This has poured a cold water on the domestic speculation of developing fuel ethanol from corn in the early stage, so the corn futures price has continuously dropped from above 1700 yuan/ton to below 1500 yuan/ton. Due to the recent drought disaster in crop land in Northeast China after the transitional suppression, the corn futures price has risen "out of season". However, on August 10, there will be a "Jilin Province 2007 Rotation of Local Grain Reserves Bidding Sales Fair", when the sales will be rotated out of the provincial reserve corn100000 tons, which will be a pressure on the corn futures price. Before the supply season comes, the market for corn to rebound sharply is small, and there is limited room for growth.

Finally, it is transferred to wheat varieties at home and abroad. Taking winter wheat in the northern hemisphere as an example, the sowing time is1early October (after cold dew) to late October, and the harvest period is from late May to early June. Wheat has two obvious seasonal tendencies: one is that it is used to falling from the end of winter to the spring before the harvest season. In most years, wheat prices will experience seasonal weakness in 1 and February due to the impact of capital recovery. And because July after the winter wheat is listed every year is generally the peak season of wheat supply, the price is the lowest in many places in the year; Another trend is that from the low point of harvest season to the peak season of wheat consumption in autumn or early winter, the price tends to rise, and the price will reach the high point of the year due to consumption around the Spring Festival. Under the pressure of centralized listing of new wheat in June and July this year, the price of strong wheat futures reached a seasonal low, and then rose strongly at the end of July.

Looking at the long-term influence of seasonal factors of the above three varieties on price changes, although active futures trading can weaken the obvious price movement trend, the price fluctuation trend in the same direction in a specific season is still very obvious. From this, we can conclude that the price trend of agricultural products is mainly influenced by two fundamental factors: supply and demand. The growth cycle of agricultural products is seasonal, so every year from sowing to the eve of harvest, because of the uncertainty between the inventory of crops in the old year and the output of crops in the new year, futures trading with predictive effect is often prone to fluctuate greatly with the speculation of weather, pests and diseases in the market. Subsequently, with the arrival of the harvest season, the new annual output of each variety of agricultural products gradually became clear, and it is inevitable that the market will begin to face seasonal supply pressure. If it is a high-yield year, the supply pressure will be the heaviest and the price will be the weakest. If the production is reduced in the first year, the price will easily get out of the anti-seasonal rising market; With the passage of time after the listing of new grain, the futures price has become more and more sensitive to demand, inventory and other factors, and its trend has become more and more obvious. Especially in the peak consumption season, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market has been deepened. At this time, the market is becoming more and more popular, the positions are increasing rapidly, and the futures price is often the strongest. Of course, there are also many speculations about new concepts. Therefore, the seasonal factor is an important factor that we should consider when making the operation plan of agricultural products.

Our analysis of the seasonal trend of the prices of the above-mentioned varieties is based on the long-term data statistics of each variety. Although it reflects the seasonal regularity of agricultural products dominated by supply and demand as a whole, there are occasional phenomena from time to time. For example, the anti-seasonal increase in soybean harvest season in 2003 was mainly due to the fact that China imported a large number of American soybeans at that time, but the production of American soybeans was greatly reduced. At one time, the ratio of soybean inventory consumption in the United States hit a record low in more than 20 years, and it was in a state of serious imbalance between supply and demand. The market was full of expectations that the future demand would be in short supply, and the seasonal harvest pressure was completely eliminated, leading to soaring prices in the harvest season. In addition, unexpected factors such as politics and economy in some countries, as well as the influence of some new concepts, can easily lead to the anti-seasonal trend of prices. This reminds us that when analyzing the trend of related agricultural products, we should not simply operate according to its seasonal trend, but also pay attention to other stage factors from time to time and make an objective evaluation.

In short, the seasonal characteristics of agricultural products are outstanding under the premise of the basic balance of supply and demand in the world. When the supply and demand are seriously unbalanced, the seasonal characteristics are often easily submerged and the prices are easily out of the anti-seasonal market. Seasonal characteristics are the inherent attributes of agricultural products, and seasonal analysis can provide us with the short-term development trend of prices, but to grasp its long-term trend, we must also take into account other major supply and demand factors.