Prices are constantly fluctuating and the market is worried.
Last week, the corn futures market performed strongly, which once gave the spot market greater confidence. However, with the continuous harvest of corn, the upstream pressure increases, and there is a risk of corn callback.
Although on the surface, the price of corn has not changed much, and most of them are the trend that you go up and I go down, and I go down and you go up, in fact, with the continuous advancement of the market, the next three major trends of corn have been vaguely foreseeable.
1, concentration or differentiation
Before the autumn harvest, the biggest harvest point in the market is the yield of corn. Whether to reduce or increase corn production has been controversial. However, as the autumn harvest draws to a close, the focus of the market has shifted, from the dispute over yield to the dispute over concentrated quantity.
According to traditional experience, when corn is harvested in autumn, there will often be a concentrated increase in quantity. At this time, due to the increase of short-term supply, the market is in a state of oversupply, so the price falls.
Usually this time is also a good time for trade and enterprises to build and replenish warehouses.
But judging from this year's situation, it is very likely that this concentration will be divided.
Why do you say that?
First, due to weather factors, the harvest time of corn this year has been postponed continuously, and the Spring Festival this year has been advanced. Therefore, the market believes that for farmers who sold grain years ago, the storage time is shorter, so the probability of centralized production increases.
However, the quality of corn this year is generally better than in previous years, which also means that the difficulty of preservation is reduced. Coupled with the increase in planting costs this year, farmers are reluctant to sell at high prices and are not in a hurry to sell grain.
On the other hand, in the past, farmers' families had little income except growing grain, but in recent years, with the continuous advancement of urbanization, many rural families have other incomes, and selling grain is not the only livelihood, which greatly reduces the urgency of selling grain.
Secondly, with the cold weather, there are signs of epidemic in many places recently, which makes the transportation fluctuate and unstable, and also makes the corn centralized and scattered.
Third, refer to last year's market. Last year was somewhat similar to this year. The market has been waiting for concentrated heavy volume, but in fact corn has been fluctuating. The so-called concentration of quantity and sharp price drop did not occur, which also made many traders wait for a game.
Therefore, it is not ruled out that this year will also go out of the market similar to last year.
2. The market game is deadlocked.
At present, the purchase and sale of corn has not really started, but the emotions expressed by the current market participants are true.
Farmers are reluctant to sell, especially high-quality dry food, and they are not worried about selling; In the past two years, new grain has been listed, and the main body of the warehouse has suffered more losses, which has made the wait-and-see mood of traders and drying towers rise.
Grain collectors are not in a hurry to collect, and grain sellers are not in a hurry to sell, so the probability of market stalemate is high.
On the other hand, the market has different views on the trend of food prices.
Some people are bullish, thinking that as the cost of imported corn rises, domestic substitution decreases, while the profit of aquaculture increases, which makes the feed demand of corn increase, which in turn drives the price of corn to rise;
However, some people think that although there are many factors that increase profits on the surface, the fiercest stage of pig power is years ago, and the decline in consumption after the year is likely to usher in a sharp decline, and the demand for corn will also decline.
Years ago, it was also the peak of corn production, and the two phases offset each other, which would inhibit the rise of corn.
The buyers and sellers are deadlocked, and the market views are different. The game situation of corn will intensify next.
3. The price fluctuates frequently
In addition to the intensification of the game, another trend of corn is frequent price fluctuations, which is reflected in the exchange of ups and downs.
There are two main aspects that affect the rise and fall of corn prices:
The first is the mentality of market replenishment.
That is, with the full harvest of corn, under the corn demand gap, enterprises should establish annual inventory, and the replenishment demand will also determine the price rise and fall of corn.
The second is the influence of international corn.
Although the price of corn in the United States has increased and the output of Ukrainian corn has decreased, according to market information, China is seeking new sources of corn due to the soaring import cost of corn in the United States, and Myanmar is trying to export 1000 tons of corn to China.
China has also signed relevant agreements with Brazil before, and Brazilian corn will be exported to China as early as June 5438+February.
The low import cost of corn in Brazil will inevitably lead to another round of ups and downs in the domestic market price.