After World War II and before the oil embargo. From 1948 to the end of 1960s, the oil price fluctuated between 2.50 and 3.00 USD/barrel, and the oil price rose from 2.50 USD/barrel in 1948 to 3.00 USD/barrel in 1957. If we look at the dollar value in 2006, we will get a completely different story:1948-1957, and the range of oil price fluctuation is17 ~18 USD/barrel. Obviously, 20% of the oil price is increased by inflation. 1958-1970, the oil price stabilized at the level of $3.00 per barrel. But in fact, the price of crude oil dropped from 17 USD/barrel to 14 USD/barrel. Considering the inflation factor, for international oil producers, 197 1 year and 1972 exaggerated the decline of crude oil prices because of the weakness of the US dollar.
OPEC was founded in 1960 by five sponsors, including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. At the inaugural meeting, two delegates studied the method adopted by the Texas Railway Commission to restrict production and affect prices. 197 1 At the end of the year, six other countries joined OPEC: Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria. Since the establishment of OPEC, all members have experienced a period of continuous decline in the purchasing power of crude oil. After World War II, these oil exporting countries found that their oil demand increased, but the purchasing power of crude oil per barrel decreased by 40%. 197 1 March, supply and demand were even. In the same month, the Texas Railway Commission allocated it for the first time at the ratio of 100%, which means that Texas producers no longer limit their oil production capacity. More importantly, this means that the control of oil prices has been transferred from the United States (Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana) to OPEC. In other words, the United States no longer has surplus production capacity, so it has lost the tool to control oil prices. In just two years after its establishment, OPEC unexpectedly encountered a war, and it got a glimpse of its ability to influence oil prices.
The interruption of oil supply in the Middle East 1973 oil crisis: the oil export ban imposed by OPEC's major Arab oil producers in response to Western countries' support for Israel. Yom Kippur War-the Arab world imposed an oil embargo. 1972, the price of crude oil per barrel is about $3. By the end of 1974, the oil price had quadrupled to 12 USD per barrel. 19731On October 5th, Israel was attacked by Egypt and Syria, and the Yom Kippur War, also known as the Ramadan War, was the well-known Arab-Israeli war (the fourth Middle East war) that broke out on 19731October 6th, the same year/kloc. Egyptians and Syrians crossed the temporary ceasefire lines in the Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula, which were occupied by the Israelis in the "Six-Day War" in 1967. Break out. The United States and many western countries expressed their support for Israel. The consequence of this support is that several Arab oil exporting countries have implemented oil embargoes aimed at supporting Israel. At that time, the Arab countries reduced their oil production by 5 million barrels per day, while the oil production of oil-producing countries in other regions increased by1100,000 barrels per day. 1in March, 1974, the global oil production decreased by 4 million barrels per day, accounting for 7.0% of the oil demand in the western world. When the oil embargo was imposed in the Arab world, the world was still wondering whether the ability to control oil prices could be transferred from Americans to OPEC. When the price of oil soared by 40% in six months, the sensitivity of price to supply shortage became more prominent. From 1974 to 1978, the global oil price was relatively stable, fluctuating between12.21~13.55 USD per barrel. When considering the inflation factor, the global oil price at that time should be in a period of moderate decline.
Global events and oil prices Source: WEG The New York Times, Bloomberg News, 2008.
Iran and Iraq Crisis Iran-Iraq War, also known as Iran's punishment war and jihad, was a war between Iranian and Iraqi troops from1September 1980 to1August 1988. This war started on September 22nd, 1980 when Iraq invaded Iran, and then in the long period of 10, Shiite uprisings continued. Although Iraq hoped to profit from the chaos of the Iranian revolution and suddenly went to war without any prior warning, and expected to end the fighting within a few months, the Iranians rose up and resisted, and finally recovered all their lost ground in June 1982. . The Iran-Iraq incident is another important factor leading to the fluctuation of oil prices in 1979 and 1980. The Iranian revolution caused the daily crude oil output to decrease by 2 million from 19781month to1June 979? 2.5 million barrels. At that time, oil production once stopped, and the Iranian revolution almost caused the highest oil price in history after the Second World War. However, the impact of this revolution on oil prices is limited and the time is relatively short, and it is not a continuous event. In a short time after the revolution, the oil output recovered to 4 million barrels per day. Iran was weakened in this revolution and was invaded by the Iraqi army in September 1980. 1980 1 1 month, the combined oil production of Iran and Iraq is only/kloc-0,000,000 barrels per day, which is 6.5 million barrels less than that before the war.
As a result, the global oil 1980 ratio 1979 production reduction 10%. The Iranian revolution and the Iran-Iraq war (Iran-Iraq war) caused the oil price to skyrocket from 1978 to 14 USD to198/kloc-0 USD per year. Twenty-six years later, Iran's oil production only reached two-thirds of that under Reza Pahlavi. Iran's oil production is maintained at1500,000 barrels per day, which is lower than the peak before the Iran-Iraq war.
Policy control of American oil price. 1973-1981year, the rapid increase in oil prices was not too high, and it was not affected by the oil crisis in the late period of the oil embargo1973, which began on1October 17 that year. The members of OPEC (composed of Arab members, Egypt and Syria) announced that in view of the Yom Kippur war, they would no longer send oil to those countries that supported Israel fighting Egypt, Syria and Iraq. These countries are the United States, its allies in Western Europe and Japan. At the same time, after the negotiations with the oil tycoon "Seven Sisters" broke down at the beginning of the same year 10, OPEC members agreed to leverage their global oil price adjustment mechanism to raise global oil prices. Because of the dependence of industrialization on oil and OPEC's pivotal position in the global oil supply, the economies of those countries suffering from oil embargo have experienced fierce inflation, and at the same time, they have also inhibited economic development. Embargoed countries have different reactions to this, and most countries insist on seeking their future oil import sources. The influence of American policy. The U.S. government used price tax to control domestic oil production, in order to alleviate the impact of1973-1974 oil price increase as much as possible. The obvious result of this price control is that American oil consumers pay 50% more for imported crude oil than for domestic crude oil. The income of American oil producers is also lower than the price in the international market. Therefore, the domestic oil industry in the United States began to provide subsidies to consumers. Has this policy achieved its goal? In short, the economic recession caused by the oil price increase of1973-1974 is not obvious, because the oil price faced by American consumers is lower than that borne by consumers in other countries in the world. However, this will also have some other effects. Without price control, the intensity of oil exploration and development in the United States will certainly increase. The higher the oil price faced by consumers, the more it will lead to the decrease of consumption: the cost per kilometer of car driving will increase, and better facilities should be installed in civil and commercial buildings than when they were first built and their work efficiency should be improved. In this way, during the period of1979-1980, the dependence of the United States on oil imports was greatly reduced, and the impact of the oil price surge when the supply of Iran and Iraq was interrupted was less.
The failure of OPEC to control oil prices. Opec has little effect on controlling oil prices, and one of its basic needs is to strengthen production quotas for its members, which is like an outdated joke. What is the difference between OPEC and Texas Railway Commission? OPEC does not have a manager like the Texas Railway Commission. The only mandatory mechanism it has is Saudi Arabia's surplus production capacity. Saudi Arabia has sufficient surplus production capacity and can effectively increase production when necessary to compensate for the impact of low oil prices on its income. It can strengthen its code of conduct by threatening to increase enough oil production to impact oil prices. In fact, unless OPEC's goals are consistent with Saudi Arabia's, OPEC's enforcement mechanism does not include these contents. During the period of1979-1980, the oil price soared rapidly. Source: WER, 2008. Ahmed Yamani, Minister of Petroleum Industry of Saudi Arabia, quickly warned other OPEC members that high oil prices would lead to reduced demand. But his warning is like casting pearls before swine.
The fluctuation of oil price has triggered a series of reactions in many oil-consuming countries: installing better thermal insulation facilities in new houses, adding new thermal insulation facilities in many old houses, improving industrial energy efficiency and improving fuel efficiency of automobiles. The implementation of these measures, coupled with the global economic recession, has led to a decline in oil demand and pushed down oil prices. Unfortunately for OPEC, this economic recession is only temporary. No one will hastily remove the thermal insulation equipment at home or replace it with energy-efficient equipment-a large number of measures taken against the rising oil price will last for 10 years or even longer, and even when the oil price drops and the oil consumption increases, the source of information will not be changed: WER, FIR, WSR, 2006. .
High oil prices have also increased the workload of oil exploration and development outside OPEC. From 1980 to 1986, the oil production of non-OPEC regions and countries increased by10 million barrels per day. The situation faced by OPEC is: the demand is declining, not the oil supply of OPEC members is increasing. From 1982 to 1985, OPEC tried to set oil production quotas and minimize production to stabilize oil prices. Because OPEC members did not produce according to their quotas, OPEC's efforts had little effect. During this period, Saudi Arabia, as a dynamic producer, took the initiative to cut production in order to curb the falling oil price. 1In August, 985, Saudi Arabia was no longer able to play this role. At the beginning of 1986, it began to increase its output from 2 million barrels per day to 5 million barrels per day. 1986, the price of crude oil per barrel fell below 10 USD! Even if the oil price drops so much, Saudi Arabia has offset the impact of low prices on its economy because of its huge output, and its income remains undiminished. 19861February, OPEC set its own price target at 18 USD per barrel. However, by 1987 1 month, OPEC's attempt was dashed and oil prices remained low.
Source of petroleum production materials: WER, FIR and WSR, 2006. (Average oil production/total amount of non-OPEC members)
1990, the price of oil was suppressed because of the reduction of oil production, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War (1August 2, 990-199/February 28, 2000), which was a coalition force composed of 34 members of the United Nations under the authorization of the United Nations. The cause of this war is similar to the war between Iran and Iraq. 1990, Iraq accused Kuwait of stealing its own oil resources by drilling deviated wells. After the Iraqi army invaded Kuwait, Iraq was immediately subjected to economic sanctions initiated by the United Nations Security Council, and the United States and Britain immediately prepared for war. 199 1 year 1 month, the war to drive Iraqi troops out of Kuwait started. As a result, the United Nations forces won a great victory and Kuwait resumed its sovereignty. United Nations troops invaded Iraq, and air and ground battles in Iraq were in full swing near the borders of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Iraq also fired missiles at targets in Saudi Arabia and Israel in retaliation for their support for Kuwait. Because the Iran-Iraq war in1980-1988 was called "Persian Gulf War" by many news organizations, the war in 199 1 year was often called "the second Persian Gulf War". However, people often use "Gulf War" or "First Gulf War", especially Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. "Desert Storm" is the name of the air and land action taken by the American army in Iraq, and it is used to refer specifically to that war. . The whole world, especially the countries in the Middle East, hate Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait far more than his war with Iran. Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the neighboring world, reacted strongly to this war, and what happened afterwards was obvious to all: the Gulf War for the liberation of Kuwait started, and crude oil prices entered a stage of continuous decline. Before the inflation occurred in 1994, oil prices fell to the lowest point since 1973.
Oil prices began to rise, the American economy strengthened, and the Asia-Pacific region began to recover. From 1990 to 1997, global oil consumption increased by 6.2 million barrels per day. The oil consumption in Asia has reached 300,000 barrels per day, which is also an important factor for the oil price to rebound and continue until 1997. Russia's oil production reduction also contributes to the recovery of oil prices.1990-1996, Russia's oil production decreased by more than 5 million barrels per day. Opec's role in controlling oil prices is still vague, and there are mistakes in the timing of changing production quotas, and there are also frequent mistakes in maintaining production cuts among OPEC members. From the end of197 to the beginning of198, oil prices increased rapidly. At that time, OPEC did not expect or seriously underestimated the impact of the economic crisis in Asia.
19971February, OPEC increased its production quota by 2.5 million barrels per day (the growth rate reached 10%). 1998 1 month, increasing the output to 27.5 million barrels per day, and the rapid economic growth in Asia has been stagnant day by day. 1998, oil consumption in the Asia-Pacific region declined for the first time since 1982. Low consumption and OPEC's increase in production led to another drop in oil prices. In response, OPEC reduced its production quota by1250,000 barrels per day in April, 1998, and reduced its production by1335,000 barrels per day again in July. To 19981February, oil prices fell again. At the beginning of 1999, oil prices began to pick up, and OPEC cut production again in April of that year1710.9 million barrels per day. Although usually not all quotas can be implemented, from the beginning of 1998 to the middle of 1999, OPEC's output was reduced by 3 million barrels per day, and the oil price was raised to $25/barrel. With the economic recovery, the trend of the dollar strengthened, and the global oil price continued to rise in mid-2000 after the high of 198 1 year. During April-10 in 2000, OPEC increased the total quota by 3.2 million barrels per day, but this could not restrain the soaring oil price. In 2000 1 1 month 1 day, with the release of another quota, the output increased by another 500,000 barrels per day, and the oil price finally began to decline.
1996—Global oil price during 2008. Since 2000, Russian oil production of non-OPEC members has increased, which means that most non-OPEC members began to increase their oil production after entering 2 1 century, which is obviously a sign that OPEC is "unable to do its job". In 200 1 year, the American economy was weak, and the oil production of non-OPEC members increased, forcing oil prices to fall again. In response, OPEC adjusted its quota again and began to reduce production. By September of 200 1 year, OPEC had reduced its production quota by 3.5 million barrels per day. In 200 1 year 1 1 month, terrorists launched an attack, which caused the oil price to be affected again and suddenly fell.
The mediation price of West Texas, the price benchmark of American gasoline spot market, fell by 35% by the middle of 200 1 year 1 1 month. Under normal circumstances, the price drop of this magnitude has led to the reduction of OPEC's quota. However, due to the political climate, OPEC has been delaying the implementation of production reduction measures until 2002 1 month, reducing its production quota by1500,000 barrels per day. Several non-OPEC members, including Russia, jointly announced a joint production reduction, which could reach 462,500 barrels per day. In March, 2002, the oil price rose to $25/barrel. By the middle of 2002, non-OPEC members resumed production, but oil prices continued to rise. In late 2002, American oil stocks had fallen to the bottom line in 20 years. By the end of the year, oversupply is not a big problem. The problems in Venezuela led to a general strike by workers of Venezuela's national oil company, which led to a sharp drop in Venezuela's oil production. During the oil workers' general strike, Venezuela can no longer make its oil reserve capacity reach the previous level, but it can still make its production capacity reach 900,000 barrels per day, which is below its peak capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day. From January to February, 2003/KLOC-0, OPEC increased its daily production quotas by 2.8 million barrels.
On March 19, 2003, Venezuela's oil production began to pick up, and Venezuela began to apply a new cooperation mechanism (Venezuela will sell 10000 barrels of crude oil to Spain every day at the price of $0/00 per barrel in exchange for imported medical equipment and other goods). Source: Gulf News, July 2008. At the same time, the military action in Iraq began. At the moment, the oil reserves of the United States and other OPEC members are still very low. With the development of economy, the oil demand in the United States began to increase, and the oil demand in Asia also increased rapidly. The loss of oil production capacity in Iraq and Venezuela and the increase of OPEC's production capacity have met the growing global energy demand, thus weakening the ability to overproduce oil. In mid-2002, the excess oil output reached 6 million barrels per day, while in most of 2004 and 2005, the surplus oil productivity was less than/kloc-0.000 million barrels per day. The ability to produce surplus oil is not enough to make up for the vacancy when most OPEC oil-producing countries interrupted supply. In a world where the daily consumption of petroleum products exceeds 80 million barrels, faced with such low production and supply capacity, the oil price will definitely respond accordingly-it will soon reach 40-50 USD/barrel. Other factors related to today's oil price include the weakening of the US dollar, the rise of Asian economy and the continuous increase of oil consumption. The hurricane in 2005 and the refinery accident in the United States when converting methyl tert-butyl ether into ethanol led to the high oil price.
Crude oil price and normal oil price in 2006 Source: WER, FIR and MIGA, 2007.
One of the most important reasons for supporting high oil prices is the oil stocks in the United States and other oil-consuming countries. Before the surplus production capacity reaches the inventory level, it can provide an excellent tool for short-term oil price prediction. At present, there is no evidence that OPEC can affect global oil inventories according to this quota policy. The oil production reduction that occurred in 2006 1 1 month and reappeared in February 2007 is mainly due to people's concern about the increasing OPEC stocks. The focus of people's concern is the total inventory of oil, including crude oil and petroleum products, which can be a better indicator of oil price.
On 20071October 19, the price of American light crude oil rose to a new height of $90.02 per barrel due to the tense situation in eastern Turkey and the weakening of the dollar price used to increase American oil inventories. 1On October 26th, the price of crude oil reached another peak, reaching $92.22 per barrel quickly, while the global oil inventory declined. From the end of 10 to the beginning of 1 1 month, the oil price kept rising. 1 1 On July 7th, the price of light crude oil reached a new record, approaching 98. 10 USD per barrel. 1 1 month 2 1 day, oil prices continued to rise, reaching $99.29 per barrel. People's fear of oil price breaking through the 100 USD/barrel mark made the American Wall Street Journal exclaim: "The peak of oil price is coming soon!" On February 2, 2008/KLOC-0, American light crude oil fell back to $99.69/barrel before exceeding people's psychological bottom line 1 00, which was caused by the tense situation in Nigeria in the New Year and the decline of American oil inventories for seven consecutive weeks. Subsequently, a BBC report said that a single trader could not raise the price. Stephen Schork, a former trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and editor of the Oil Market Real-Time Newsletter, said that a floor trader bought 1000 barrels (160 cubic meters) of oil, which was the minimum purchase, and then he quickly sold the oil at the price of 99.40 dollars per barrel, thus losing 600 dollars.
However, in the oil transaction on March 3rd, 2008/kloc-0, the oil price finally broke the mark of 1 00 USD/barrel and reached 100.05 USD/barrel. In the subsequent 1 Friday, 4th, the oil price dropped to 97.9 1 USD/barrel. Part of the reason is that the unemployment rate has risen in a week's employee report. Even if the demand decreased, the oil price rose to 1 month 19 after the Texas refinery fire and OPEC production reduction, and it rose to 100. 10 USD/barrel again. There is evidence that supply is decreasing faster than the demand for oil. On February 28th, with the continued weakness of the US dollar and the low cash interest rate of the US federal government, it is difficult to attract more oil market funds, and the oil price soared to $0/03 per barrel. On March 3rd, the oil price continued to climb to 104 USD/barrel due to the continuous decline of USD. On the same day, OPEC accused the American economy of "wrong operation" to push the oil price to a record height, and regarded it as "boastful production" and blamed it on the rule of President George W. Bush of the United States.
On March 12, the oil price rushed to a new height of $ 1 10, breaking the recent record of $ 109.92 per barrel. Oil prices continued to rise all the way, reaching 13 in March and climbing to11USD per barrel. Subsequently, under the influence of the American economic recession, the oil price fell back to 1 10 USD/barrel. On March 17, the oil price hit another record, and the price of light oil in the United States reached11.80 USD/barrel. On April 15, the oil price broke through 1 14 USD/barrel for the first time. On April 6th/kloc-0, the oil price reached 1 15.07 USD/barrel. On April 18, the oil price rose to 1 17 USD/barrel again due to the continued weakness of the US dollar and the threat of Nigerian anti-government military forces to destroy the oil pipeline. On April 22nd, the oil price climbed to 1 19.90 USD/barrel, and then declined slightly. On April 25th, the oil price on the new york Stock Exchange reached 1 19. 10 USD/barrel. Earlier, it was reported that the US Military Maritime Command ordered the destruction of an Iraqi cargo ship.
On May 9th, the oil price reached $0/25 per barrel for the first time. On May 2 1 day, the price of Brent crude oil reached 130 USD/barrel. In less than 24 hours on May 21-22, the price of crude oil per barrel rushed to 135 USD. In June, oil prices fell sharply for the first time. Since then, Venezuela, the main oil supplier in the United States, has threatened to cut production by 5% from 2009 1 month because of too long oil field production. Mexico, Russia and Nigeria have also called for production cuts, and international oil prices have rebounded, with a price increase of more than $6 per barrel. On June 6th, 2008, the oil price rose by 1 1 USD within 24 hours, which was the biggest increase ever. Israel's harsh words attacking Iraq are also considered to be the reason for the rise in oil prices. The reduction of oil supply by the two major oil suppliers has caused people to panic like 1973 energy crisis.
As early as 2007 10, some economists pointed out that due to the rapid economic development of India and China, the demand for oil, natural gas and petroleum products increased rapidly mainly from India and China. Increase rapidly. Therefore, the international oil price will remain at a high level in the foreseeable future. /kloc-in October/February, OPEC ministers met and unanimously agreed to maintain the original high price, but to stabilize the price, this price will bring continuous high income to oil-producing countries. However, if the oil price is too high, it will weaken the economy of oil-consuming countries. According to OPEC's goal, some analysts suggest that the price of a barrel of oil should be 70 ~ 80 dollars. Some major oil exporting countries have developed rapidly and used their own oil more. Particularly notable is Indonesia, which no longer exports oil; The demand for oil projects in Mexico and Iran is five years ahead of oil production. Russia will also develop rapidly. Obviously, due to the rapid change in the value of the dollar, oil prices have also changed greatly. Obviously, the oil price in 2008 will not exceed $200 per barrel in any case, but it will be normal if it can return to the level of $70 per barrel.
Universal measures to reduce the current high oil price
In the future, there will be many indirect market owners (40 1K plan, * * * mutual fund, and even personal deposit are also a conventional investment method, which has not been recognized by banks), and the indirect impact of the spiraling economy itself can devalue the future oil. In the early 1980s, the influencing factors experienced by gold and silver were typical examples. The situation is the same in any speculative market, and the ability of investors will be discouraged by the future price of the ratio of supply to demand. Demand may decrease, while supply may increase, as in1998-1999. At that time, the oil market in Asia collapsed (demand decreased), while Iraq increased production by 12% (increased supply/excess). The price of oil in this period was as low as $8/barrel. The future is still uncertain, but the known OPEC and other oil producing countries have shown considerable excess capacity.