Since the pig price rose in the second half of the year, the price of pork has always been at a high level above 20 yuan/Jin, and it rose by 5 1.8% in June at 5438+1October. Therefore, the state vigorously regulated the price of pigs, and finally, in June, 5438+065,438 438+ 10/0, the price of pork dropped sharply. According to the latest information disclosed by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics, the subsequent pig price trend is not ideal. ......
Pork Price Reduction According to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission in June 165438+ 10/5, the average retail price increase of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities narrowed from over 40% to 30%-40% in the week of 10/65438.
At this point, after nearly half a month of "high and low", the pig price finally reached the consumer side.
In fact, the current price of pigs is only 25 yuan/kg, but the price of pork in many places is still as high as 40 yuan/kg, and the price difference is as high as 15 yuan/kg! This leads consumers to still think that the price of pigs is too high, but in fact, the breeding end has also lost the "high-priced pigs", and the profit of the intermediate link of selling pork is too great.
The price of pork is not like that of live pigs. When the price of live pigs falls, it will fall, but it is "easy to rise and difficult to fall". Since June 165438+ 10, the price of live pigs has dropped for two weeks in a row, but due to various intermediate links, the price of pork in the market has dropped very slowly.
Moreover, according to the observation of many reporters of Pig Network, when the pig price is at a low level, the price difference between pork and pigs is obviously small, while when the pig price is at a high level, the price difference between pork and pigs is obviously increased!
For example, when the price of pigs was only 16-20 yuan/kg last year, the price of pork was only 24-30 yuan/kg, and the price difference was only 8- 10 yuan/kg, which was significantly lower than the present stage.
Nowadays, the price of pork has finally dropped gradually, which is good news for consumers and farmers. However, farmers should pay attention. The National Development and Reform Commission also stated that "the current hog price is still at a high level and will closely follow the market price changes".
It can be seen that it is still possible to regulate pig prices. On the one hand, it will ensure that the price of pigs will not rise sharply, on the other hand, it may continue to suppress prices.
According to 15 media reports, the spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out at the press conference that from the perspective of market demand, the economy is still recovering due to complex factors at home and abroad, and the market demand is still recovering, which has relatively limited pulling effect on prices.
From the perspective of pork supply, the current pig production capacity and pig stock are generally stable, and pig production is at a reasonable level, which does not support the sharp increase in pork prices.
Moreover, he also made it clear that "policies and measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices will continue to be effective, which is conducive to price stability.
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Therefore, even though it is already half of June 5438+065438+ 10, the national temperature has dropped significantly, and the "bacon peak period" expected by many farmers is gradually coming, but the trend of pig prices is still sluggish! Although it has rebounded slightly in recent days, there is no trend to continue in the range of 26-27 yuan, not to mention the high pig price of 5438+00 29 yuan in June.
In addition, Jiangxi announced that 600 tons of reserve pork will be put into production from 165438+ 10/6, and the price tag is only 12. 1 yuan/kg! Undoubtedly, this has formed a certain resistance to the rise in pig prices, and farmers should not blindly bet on the market.
Some people think that this 600 tons of pork is nothing, but further from the data at the slaughter end, we can clearly perceive the gradual recovery of pig production capacity.
The profit from selling pigs is still considerable. Although the price of pigs has been falling for several days, the number of big fat pigs in the market remains high. According to the data of Yongyi Consulting-
Slaughter weight: As of June 1 10, the national average slaughter weight was 130.05 kg, up 0.36 kg from last week and 0.28% from the previous month.
Among them, the slaughter of large-weight pigs above 150 kg accounted for 9.2 1%, up 0.37% from last week.
Slaughter volume: As of June 165438+ 10/0, the total average slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises in the current week was 105935 heads/day, up by 2. 14% compared with last week.
Among them, some large slaughterhouses and small knives slaughtered retail pigs, up 5.37% and 2.42% from the previous month.
Obviously, in June 5438+ 10, the production capacity brought by farmers' "secondary fattening fence" was still gradually released, which directly led to the pig price falling by 2.9% in the first week and 2.3% in the second week of June 5438+065438+ 10. At this time, the pig price has dropped by a full 4 yuan -5 yuan/kg compared with the end of June 10.
However, although farmers are expecting pig prices to continue to rise, no one can deny that the current price of selling pigs is still considerable, and the profit level of a pig is not low.
According to the data held by Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the price of live pigs had been rising continuously by 1 1 week before entering1,and the average profit per pig reached1ten thousand yuan.
According to the latest price, the average profit per head has dropped by 200 yuan, but in 800 yuan, it has remained at around-1000 yuan.
Therefore, under the comprehensive influence of "considerable profits now and lower expectations in the future", farmers are highly motivated and the market supply is guaranteed.
However, through reverse thinking, we can speculate that the pig price will remain at the level of 25 yuan/Jin even if everyone actively slaughter. It can be seen that the space for pig prices to fall is very limited, and there is no problem in guaranteeing the bottom. Even if everyone keeps the rhythm of orderly slaughter, there is still some hope of a rebound in pig prices in the future.
In addition, looking deeper, we now analyze the pig price market basically around the factor of "supply and demand". Although farmers' "emotional guidance" is also very important, their emotions are mainly affected by "supply and demand".
However, I think the more essential reason that affects the pig price lies in the cost.
Although many people firmly believe that the pig market has nothing to do with the cost, because the pig price is always "high when it is said, low when it is said", but if the pig price wants to be lower, it depends on the cost in the final analysis.
Cost impact cycle In general market relations, cost often determines "price", such as feed price-as soon as soybean meal rises, feed begins to rise, regardless of whether farmers resist it or not.
No way, because feed mills can't "sell feed at a loss" and going out to do business is not charity.
But for farmers, the most difficult thing is that we can't announce the price increase of live pigs as soon as the feed price increases! Because the price of live pigs is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, more live pig prices will fall. Who cares how much you lost for a pig?
But I want to say-the pig price only affects the production capacity, and the cost affects the cycle.
At present, the mainstream view is that "pig price affects production capacity". When the pig price is high, everyone will increase production, and when the pig price is low, everyone will reduce production.
But at a deeper level, "price level" is only superficial data, and the most fundamental thing is profitability.
It should be said that everyone will increase production as soon as they make high profits, and reduce production as soon as they lose money.
The key factor affecting profit is not the fluctuating pig price, but the relatively stable cost! Why is pork so cheap in Europe and America? American pork is only 6.7 yuan/Jin! And this low price is "long-term".
Don't American farmers have to make money?
Of course not, the fundamental reason is that they can reduce the cost of breeding, and the cost affects the cycle of pigs.
When our breeding cost is lower, the acceptable pig price in the pig cycle will be lower, which will promote the birth of "low market".
Just like in Mu Yuan, even at the lowest point of the pig cycle, there is no need to significantly reduce production capacity, because their costs keep a low profit margin.
Imagine that the pig cycle is coming, and the current production capacity will definitely be higher, and the industry volume is very serious! In this case of involution, the first to be eliminated is often the highest cost, so the market space of low-cost production capacity can be improved; Then when the next pig cycle comes, there will be more "low-cost" production capacity in the industry, inferior production capacity will be further eliminated, and low-cost production capacity will continue to increase. ......
Therefore, under this cruel "cost elimination system", the low-cost production capacity will continue to increase, and eventually the "high price point" will gradually become lower and the "low price point" will become lower and lower.
Then, why did the pig price in 2022 only rise for half a year, and then began to decline! In essence, the "low-cost production capacity" in the industry has improved a lot. Those large-scale pig farms didn't have much production capacity at all in the last pig cycle, or even expanded in reverse, which directly led to the acceleration of production capacity recovery and the shortening of high-priced period.
In short, the cost of farming is the key to success. For farmers with high costs, the "pig cycle" will only become more and more terrible.