To analyze the future trend of pig price in 2022, we must analyze it from the root of market supply and demand. According to official data, since the second quarter of the year, the production capacity of fertile sows has been continuously higher than the normal stock, and it didn't reach the upper limit of the normal stock until 1 1 month. According to the calculation of fattening for six months, it corresponds to the pig production capacity, that is to say, in the first half of 2022, the supply of pigs exceeded the demand.

In an ideal state, according to the calculation of time, the extra production capacity of sows before 1 1 month will be digested around mid-2022, which means that the market will reach the balance point between supply and demand around mid-2022, and the pig price will return to a relatively reasonable price in mid-2022. At this time, pig farmers will have meager income and market consumption will not be too constrained, but the market will never be static.

At this time, the official lower limit of fertile sows will play a role. When the number of fertile sows is reduced to the lower limit of normal possession, the official will intervene in pig production, so that the imbalance between supply and demand in the market will not be too serious, and the price of pigs will fluctuate greatly, thus the whole pig industry will develop steadily, which means that the trend of pig prices in 2022 will tend to be more gentle.

Based on the above analysis, the pig price in 2022 will show a "V" trend. The left side of the "V" will show a downward trend in the first half of the year, and it will bottom out again around the middle of the year. The right side of the "V" will show an upward trend in the second half of the year. However, due to the formulation of the production capacity control model, the pig price ceiling in 2020 will no longer be realized in the history that will be recorded forever, and the pig farmers' dream of making a fortune by raising pigs will be shattered.