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Will pork prices fall at the end of this month?

The national pork price reached 11.79 yuan/kg on December 7, showing a continuous upward trend. In this regard, some industry insiders said that the rise in pork prices is beneficial.

What is surprising is that the price of pork has been falling since December 8, and has dropped five times in a row today.

According to price information on China Livestock Online, on December 12, the national pork price averaged 10.5 yuan per kilogram, down 11% from five days ago. However, what surprises some farmers even more is that in the three northeastern provinces and Shaanxi, the price of pork has dropped to less than 9 yuan. The prices in 7 regions including Hubei, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Henan are all below 9.0.

This time, the price of pork has plummeted, just like the northern climate, making all pig farmers feel a bit cold.

As for the price of pork, why is it that the season that is supposed to be the best is so low this year? Is the confusing pork market caused by the trend, or are there other reasons?

Looking back on the week of December, pork prices did not rise significantly, but the overall performance was stable and rebounded slightly, reaching a maximum of 11.8 yuan/kg. However, in the second week of December, pork prices began to fall. , and the decline was huge. In some places, the price of pork fell by more than one yuan on December 11th.

For many people, no question is more confusing to many people than this one.

We can find this problem through elimination.

Is it because their numbers have increased? The number of piglets in December is the number of piglets born in May and June this year. After April, the number of domestic piglets continues to increase, which means that the number of piglets in December is higher than that in November. According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, by June 2022, the number of reproductive sows nationwide will increase by 850,000 from May. This number seems to be a big increase, but compared with the national annual demand of 40 million tons, it is simply A drop in the bucket. Therefore, the pig inventory rate is not the main reason for the decline in pig prices.

Is it because those big pigs haven’t entered the market yet, so they only start in early December? This situation is obviously illogical. In December, the average meat production of pig farms dropped significantly compared with November.

Or will pork prices fall due to consumer downturn? Some people may doubt this view, but what is it? Now the bacon market in the south has begun, and the temperature in the north has begun to drop. In addition, the epidemic situation is becoming more and more strict, and the whole country is proceeding in an orderly manner. It stands to reason that the consumption in the market must be good. Why is this happening? What kind of situation?

In fact, in December, due to the lifting of the ban, the number of confirmed cases across the country continued to rise. Many people stayed at home, that is, between work and home, and in supermarkets and vegetable markets. It's much less than before.

During this period, pork prices fell five times in a row, but the decline was much smaller than that of pork. The profit of each standard piece of pork in the slaughterhouse can reach 400 yuan. Excessive pork prices will inevitably restrict the final demand of consumers. It is reported that the average price of pork purchased by citizens is more than 20 yuan, which has seriously dampened citizens' enthusiasm for purchasing. This year's demand for cured meat is expected to plummet by nearly 30%.

Therefore, the author of this article believes that the main reason for the recent plunge in pork prices is weak consumption.

Of course, the recent advantages that pig production companies have in competing with the feed industry may also be an important factor leading to the decline in pork prices.

The price of pork is currently falling. Pig farmers are selling more, and the price of pork is falling even more. According to their understanding, the butchers' pig collection volume has been overwhelmed recently, and they will definitely take the opportunity to lower prices.

So, what will the price of pork look like next?

Judging from today's pork prices, although some places have fallen to the "8 yuan zone", they will continue to fall. The root cause is that consumer demand is sluggish and supply is still at a high level. In the case of excess supply, pork prices will inevitably fall.

Judging from the current pork consumption situation, it will be difficult for pork prices to rebound in the short term. The price of pigs fell, but there is still a certain lag in the rebound to the end of the pork market.

At present, the price of pork in a cheap supermarket in Langfang has reached 44 yuan/jin. The high price has stopped many end customers from moving forward. This means that high meat prices may continue to suppress pork consumption in the next few days.

On the supply side, in the short term, enterprises with large-scale pig farms are still accelerating their exports. In the short term, pork supply and demand rarely change significantly, and pork prices will continue to decline.

However, everything has its side. When pig raising companies speed up the stocking process, it can help reduce the burden of stocking in the later period. In addition, during this year’s Spring Festival, pork consumption will be boosted. Therefore, in late December and January, the pig market will have a A brief rebound. The extent of the rebound depends on the recent number of pigs slaughtered and future pork consumption.

It is worth noting that among the three northeastern provinces, the prices of live pigs that were the first to enter the "8 yuan zone" have gradually fallen back to the fattening price line of feed mills, and prices may rise again. So, I think at the end of December, pork prices will have a basis to stop falling.

Okay, that’s it for this article. What do you think about this issue? Welcome to comment in the comment area, I hope you can like and share, thank you!