First, the pig market "dead wood meets spring"!
It is still the main theme of the current pig price. Previously, the average price of live pigs bottomed out at the stage of 13.85 yuan/kg, and there was an obvious sense of high price at the breeding end. After superposition, the price of domestic feed raw materials rose, the price of gasoline and diesel rose sharply, and the logistics cost increased sharply. The bullish sentiment in the pig market is getting stronger, and the pig price is getting rid of the decline. The market presents a trend of "dead wood meets spring"!
At present, the average price of live pigs is 6.99 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs is 0.06 yuan/kg higher than that of the previous day according to "7 yuan Times". Most of the domestic market is "floating red". At present, the price quoted by slaughter enterprises in most areas of North China, Northeast China and North China has risen to 14 ~ 14.4 yuan/kg, and the price quoted in Heilongjiang Province alone is 65448. However, the price quoted by slaughter enterprises in southern producing areas, southwest and central China is generally lower than 14 yuan/kg, and only 13.5~ 13.65 yuan/kg in Yunnan-Guizhou area. The price of live pigs in East China and South China markets 14~ 14.7 yuan/kg, Shandong 14.4 yuan/kg!
The logic of rising pig prices is actually very emotional. From the perspective of market supply and demand, pork delivery at the consumer end is still slow, and white pigs just need to be weak. However, due to the low average price of live pigs, the slaughter pace of big pigs in the market has accelerated. Although the consumption support of big pigs is insufficient, the enthusiasm of slaughterhouses for bargain hunting is still high. In recent two days, due to the bullish sentiment in the market, the operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased to about 33.2%.
In terms of pig supply, the price of pigs is running at a low level, the enthusiasm of market farmers to admit losses is declining, large pig enterprises control the number of pigs, and the circulation of pig sources is reduced. Slaughterhouses in the north and south of China are facing the pressure of collecting pigs to varying degrees. The pig enterprises in the group are shrinking and selling, the phenomenon of premium trading is increasing, and the bullish sentiment in the pig market is heating up!
Therefore, with the support and superposition of many factors, the ratio of pig to grain is about to fall below 5: 1, and the government has the expectation of purchasing and storing pork again, which also boosted market sentiment. It is predicted that the pig price will be dominated by strength in the short term. By the end of April, with the gradual improvement of demand, the increase of pig price will be further expanded, and the pig price will also enter the upward stage!
Second, the price of soybean meal "skyrocketed"!
Recently, the domestic spot soybean meal market has risen sharply. Judging from the agency's summary quotation, in terms of Guangdong oil plants, the price of 43% protein oil plants in Dongguan rose to 4750 yuan/ton, up by 250 yuan/ton, Shandong oil plants rose to 4400 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan, Jiangsu oil plants rose to 4450 yuan/ton, up by 50 yuan/ton, and Tianjin traders rose by 65 yuan/ton.
The price of soybean meal soared. Judging from the quotations in the coastal areas of Guangdong, the current soybean meal price is up 1.040 yuan/ton compared with 3,765,438 yuan/ton on March 24th, with an increase of 28.03%!
This round of soybean meal prices rose sharply because of the changes in market supply and demand. On the supply side, since mid-March, the operating rate of domestic oil plants is low, the scale of soybean crushing is small, and the operating rate of mainstream sample oil plants is only about 49%. The supply of soybean meal is tight, and it is more difficult to pick up the goods in some areas and downstream markets. On the demand side, due to the weak operation of soybean meal market after the Spring Festival, feed and breeding subjects mainly wait and see, and the inventory remains low. Recently, the centralized delivery of soybean meal from feed enterprises in many places has increased. Last week, the average daily turnover of soybean meal in domestic oil plants was about 280,000 tons, and the downstream transactions in the market were active. Some aquaculture just needed to be strengthened to further boost market confidence!
With regard to imported soybeans, due to the changes in the examination and approval procedures for imported soybeans in China, it takes 20 working days from application to issuance, which also causes the delay of imported soybeans entering Hong Kong. The operating rate of oil plants is difficult to boost, and the supply of soybean meal is gradually tight!
Therefore, with the support of many parties, the soybean meal market has been greatly boosted. However, this round of price increase may be short-lived. With the gradual improvement of the operating rate of oil plants, the number of imported soybeans is increasing. Personally, I think the soybean meal market will still maintain the phenomenon of "strong reality and weak expectation"!
Third, the egg price trend is strong!
In the middle and late April, the domestic egg market has maintained a narrow fluctuation trend. Among them, the average price of eggs in the production market is 4.78 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in the sales market is 4.8 yuan/kg, and the price of eggs in the production and sales markets has kept a high fluctuation pattern. But with the passage of time, at the end of April, with the support of both supply and demand, the price of eggs will still be adjusted mainly by rising!
According to institutional analysis, from the perspective of egg supply, the scale of newly opened layers this month has a great influence on the level of chicken supplementation from 1 1 to 12 last year, while the scale of eliminated old chickens is concentrated in 2 1 to 12. Especially at the end of April, with the gradual recovery of demand, the price of meat and poultry is strong, and the pace of eliminating old chickens may be further increased. After the laying hens are low, the egg supply level is not high!
At present, the pressure on domestic egg inventory level is weak, among which the number of days of egg inventory in production is only 0.65 days, and the number of days of egg inventory in circulation is only 1.29 days. The supply pressure of eggs is weak, and production and sales are relatively smooth!
On the demand side, the domestic consumer market has gradually picked up recently, the weather has turned hot, and residents' outdoor dining has become more intense, and the May Day holiday is coming soon. The secondary and tertiary wholesale markets will usher in a cycle of centralized replenishment, and e-commerce will also increase substantially. The operating rate of food factories will rebound and the frequency of egg supplementation will accelerate. The downstream market just needs to be strengthened, and the flow of people is accelerated. Domestic refined oil products have risen sharply recently, and transportation costs will continue to increase, which will also aggravate eggs.
Be alert! The price of pigs is "dead wood meets spring", soybean meal is "skyrocketing" and the price of eggs is strong. What happened?