It is reported that Chicago corn and wheat futures fell by 1- 1.3% on Tuesday, and even soybean prices recently affected by Indonesia's palm oil export ban closed at 1%.
At the same time, in the domestic grain market, as new wheat began to appear on the market sporadically, the price fluctuated again.
According to the latest news from daily grain and oil today, the new season wheat in Hubei has been listed sporadically in 2022, and the price is not low.
It is reported that the quality of this part of wheat listed sporadically at present is generally not high, with scab and cyan grains and many shriveled grains, which can hardly meet the needs of flour enterprises and can only be used as feed wheat. Nevertheless, the drying price of these newly listed wheat reached 1.35- 1.37 yuan/kg, a record high, which was also higher than the state's entrusted purchase price this year.
According to the information released by the relevant state departments, in 2022, the purchasing price of the national wheat market will be third-class 1. 13 yuan/kg.
It should be pointed out that at present, the epidemic situation in various places is still repeated, and farmers in some areas go to the fields privately.
In order to ensure the normal production of grain and do a good job in epidemic prevention and control, the relevant state departments require all localities to do a good job in guiding and stagger the peak.
As far as wheat itself is concerned, with the sporadic listing of new wheat in Hubei, a large-scale wheat harvest has gradually begun.
Judging from the wheat harvest in previous years, the weather change in the next month will directly have a decisive impact on the wheat yield and quality this year.
In addition, although the opening price of new wheat is more likely this year, from the perspective of planting income, the growth rate of planting acquisition is expected to be less than expected.
The main performance is that the prices of domestic agricultural materials such as chemical fertilizer and diesel oil have risen sharply in the past year, which has reduced the expected income.
At the same time, the situation of epidemic prevention and control will also increase the harvest cost.
Judging from the spot market of wheat, the current purchase prices in various places have stabilized again after several days of continuous callback, with slight fluctuations.
Among them, the purchase price of Qingdao Tianxiang Food today is 1.65 yuan/kg, up by 3 points; Weifang Ye Xiang fell 1 point, the latest price 1.64 yuan/kg; Bozhou Wudeli Pumai 1.65 yuan/kg, down 1 point.
In the corn market, the market trend continues to show a trend of separation.
Among them, due to the listing of new wheat in Huanghuai area, the price continued to adjust slightly, while the northeast region continued to show a strong upward trend.
Among them, Heilongjiang Xinhecheng rose 2 points today, the latest price 1.358 yuan/kg; From May 5th, fuel ethanol in Jilin increased by 160 yuan/ton, and the price of 14 water corn was 2720 yuan/ton.
For the current corn consumption, it has been pointed out that the core of the increasing consumption of grain and oil lies in the consumption of meat and milk by Chinese people and the development of deep processing industry.
According to statistics, in 20021year, the total output of pork, cattle, sheep and poultry in China was about 89 million tons, while the output before 10 was 78 million tons, and the output 20 years ago was 63 million tons. This is the main reason why China's corn output has increased year by year, but the import volume has also increased simultaneously.
At present, with the tight supply and demand situation of corn, a large number of wheat and rice began to enter the feed field for substitution, which is not a good thing for the wheat and rice market.
The data show that the wide application of corn in China's feed has a more important relationship besides the nutritional components and comparative benefits required by aquaculture, that is, the yield of corn.
It is reported that among the four staple food varieties in China, corn has the highest yield, the widest planting area and strong adaptability, with an annual output of about 260 million tons.
Relatively speaking, the annual output of rice ranked second is only 265,438+1100 million tons. If the rice output is 80%, the actual rice can be provided even less. The third-ranked wheat is about 65.438+0.3 billion tons, and the soybean is only about 65.438+0.5 million tons.
Therefore, for the domestic market, when there is a shortage of corn supply, the substitution of other varieties may not be too great in the short term, but the long-term substitution trend is difficult to maintain-unless the productivity index of aquaculture or deep processing industry is reduced.