However, yesterday, the price of corn 220 1 main contract was "low opening and low going" and fell sharply. Recently, the price of corn 220 1 main contract has been "alternating". Today, the price per ton of corn has gone up in 47 yuan, and what is it because of? At the same time, does this mean that the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will start again?
Next, let's talk about why the price of corn 220 1 main contract has increased by 47 yuan/ton today. For this problem, Xiao Bian feels that the main reason is the continuous decline of the US dollar index.
According to the market trend chart, the US dollar index has been falling continuously recently. From1October 13 to1October 15 16 12 minutes, the US dollar index has fallen by 6990 in three trading days.
As we all know, there is a negative correlation between the US dollar index and corn price, that is, the US dollar index goes up and corn price goes down, or the US dollar index goes down and corn price goes up.
Recently, the US dollar index continues to fall, so the price of the main contract of US corn 12 continues to rise, which in turn makes the cost of imported corn in China rise, thus forcing the price of the main contract of corn 12 to rise.
According to the market chart, recently, the main contract price of US corn/KOOC-0/2 fluctuated slightly, from/KOOC-0/0/4 to/KOOC-0/0/5/KOOC-0/6/KOOC-0/7.
So, today, the price of corn 12 main contract has soared by 47 yuan/ton. Does this mean that the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will start again?
For this question, Xiao Bian feels that it may not be! From a technical point of view, at present, the price of corn 220 1 main contract does not have the technical support for continuous increase.
Recently, although the price of corn 220 1 main contract is fluctuating and rising, the three lines of KDJ indicator are hooked up, and the red energy column of MACD indicator is also shrinking. These signals indicate that there is limited room for the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract.
From a fundamental point of view, although the US dollar index has continued to fall recently, Xiao Bian feels that its rising potential is still great. In the future, once the US dollar index "turns up", it will inevitably suppress the main contract price of corn 220/KLOC-0.
At present, the Federal Reserve is still hesitating to shrink its monetary policy as soon as possible for several reasons: 1, the employment situation in the United States in September was "unsatisfactory", and the early contraction of monetary policy may continue to "worsen" the employment situation in the United States. 2. Nowadays, the market risk of US debt default has not been "deducted". If monetary policy is contracted early, the credit risk of its debt default will be even greater.
However, the continuous decline of the US dollar index is unfavorable to some export-oriented countries, so it will be their top priority for these countries to prevent the US dollar index from falling further.
So, how can we make the dollar index "stop falling and rebound"? In this regard, Xiao Bian feels that to make the US dollar index "stop falling and rebound" will have to make the Fed shrink its monetary policy as soon as possible.
What are the measures: 1, reducing the "demand" of raw materials for industrial enterprises. 2. Maintaining the stability of the domestic currency exchange rate makes the price of export commodities rise, forcing the domestic inflation in the United States to continue to "climb".
Nowadays, China has been reducing the demand for raw materials of industrial enterprises through the policy of "limiting electricity and production". Next, it depends on whether the offshore RMB exchange rate can be stable.
In the future, once the offshore RMB exchange rate is maintained in the range of 6.42-6.49, the inflation rate in the United States will probably be higher than 5.4% next month, which will force the Federal Reserve to shrink its monetary policy as soon as possible.
From this, Xiao Bian speculates that in the future, the US dollar index will not continue to fall sharply, so the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will not start again.
Therefore, Xiao Bian feels that even though the price per ton of corn has increased by 47 yuan today, the price increase of corn 220 1 main contract will not start again under the combined effect of these factors. What do you think of this? Is it consistent with Xiaobian's point of view?