Since last year 1 1 month, with the continuous arrival of US soybean imports in Hong Kong, the domestic soybean meal market has entered a downward turning point. Among them, the quotations of Shandong and coastal oil plants have also gradually declined from 5750 yuan/ton! After entering the Spring Festival, due to the downturn of domestic livestock and poultry breeding industry, the loss pressure of aquaculture is relatively strong, while the domestic soybean meal inventory has increased sharply, traders and feed enterprises have cautiously replenished, and the spot soybean meal price has been falling!

In late March, domestic spot soybean meal fell to a new low, in which the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu Oil Factory fell to 3,670 yuan/ton, and that in Guangdong Oil Factory fell to 37 10 yuan/ton, while in Shandong, the price of coastal oil factory fell to 3,720 yuan/ton, and in Shandong, the price of oil factory dropped by 35.3% compared with the previous high point! However, with the unexpected decline in soybean meal market, the inventory of downstream demand gradually decreased, the enthusiasm of spot soybean meal trading became stronger, and the domestic soybean meal price oversold and rose. Recently, affected by various support, the soybean meal market was thunderous and the price showed a sharp rise!

According to institutional analysis, at present, the price of soybean meal has risen to 4750 yuan/ton in the coastal areas of Guangdong, and the price of soybean meal in Shandong, Tianjin and Jiangsu has gradually increased to 4400~4500 yuan/ton. Among them, in Guangdong, the price of soybean meal in oil plants has increased by10400 compared with 37 10 yuan/ton at the end of March.

So what happened in the market?

This round of soybean meal oversold and soared. Personally, the key points are as follows:

First, the oil plant stopped working, and the stock of soybean meal gradually decreased;

In March, the domestic mainstream oil plants stopped working. On the one hand, due to the accumulation of soybean meal, soybean meal in many oil plants expanded, and oil plants actively reduced the operating rate; On the other hand, the import of soybeans into Hong Kong has been delayed, soybean stocks have been decreasing, and oil plants have stopped working because of broken soybeans. It is understood that due to the recent adjustment of the approval process for soybean entry in China, the soybean entry into Hong Kong has been delayed for nearly 2~3 weeks, the crushing scale of oil plants has decreased, the inventory of soybean meal has gradually decreased, and the supply has gradually shown a tight performance!

Second, the heat of soybean meal trading is heating up, and the phenomenon of centralized stocking in the downstream market is increasing!

After the Spring Festival, the soybean meal market kept declining, and the feed and breeding subjects mainly waited and saw, and the stock remained at a low level. However, due to the approval of GMO and CIQ certificates, the market panic and enthusiasm for picking up soybean meal increased sharply, further causing the pressure of tight supply of spot soybean meal!

Therefore, due to the trend of "weak supply and strong demand" in the phased soybean meal market, the spot soybean meal price has risen sharply against the trend. However, this round of soybean meal market is strong or difficult to sustain. According to institutional analysis, the monthly scale of imported soybeans will still be 9 million ~1000 million tons from April to May. With the gradual increase of soybeans entering Hong Kong, the operating rate of oil plants will continue to rise, and the supply of soybean meal will be tight.