In winter, the pig market is "not prosperous in peak season", and it continues to be weak after the holiday.
As can be seen from Figure 1, after the continuous decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic pig price hovered at a low level in the first half of February in 2023/kloc-0, which was not much different from that in 20 19 and the same period in 2022. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of February 16, 2023, the average transaction price of lean pigs in China was 14.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.34% from the previous month and an increase of19.45% from the same period last year.
Trend chart of average transaction price of lean pigs
Entering February, it is in the period of low consumption after the Spring Festival, and the fresh white strips are not well delivered. Slaughtering enterprises generally sell poorly and buy at low prices. However, at the same time, although the backlog of pig sources in the early stage of the market has not been completely digested, the breeding end has the intention of resisting the price and reluctant to sell. Supply tightened for a short time, the decline of domestic pig prices narrowed, and the overall low level hovered.
Upstream mentality: piglet supplement+secondary fattening, still optimistic about the market outlook.
At present, although the pig market is weak, the breeding side is not pessimistic about the market outlook. This is because since the beginning of 2023, the industry has entered the stage of total loss of pig breeding, and with the recurrence of various diseases in winter, some breeding enterprises have eliminated backward production capacity ahead of schedule, and the supply of piglets has also been tightened. In the stage of low price fluctuation of pigs and piglets, after the Spring Festival, some breeding ends are bullish on the market outlook, and the enthusiasm of secondary fattening and supplementary piglets is significantly improved. According to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, as of February 16, 2023, the average slaughter price of 7 kg piglets in China was 432.89 yuan/head, which was18.23% higher than the low point of the previous year.
Average slaughter and chain trend chart of piglets
In addition, the intention of farmers, especially retail groups, to resist price increases, some big pigs are still under pressure, the market for pigs is tightening for a short time, and it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to acquire, which supports the low price of pigs to fluctuate rather than continue to decline. Therefore, after the Spring Festival, the domestic live pig trade has stopped falling and rebounded. As of February 16, 2023, the average weight of live pig trade was 123. 10 yuan/kg, which may increase in the later period.
Downstream mentality: fresh products go with the market, active+passive warehousing.
The mentality of the downstream slaughter end has also changed. With the gradual digestion of household inventory, the demand for fresh products has improved to some extent, but it is very limited and the overall situation is still weak. Due to the expected improvement of the market outlook, some slaughter enterprises in Henan, Shandong and other regions have the intention of actively dividing the warehousing, and some have been passively warehousing because of poor fresh goods. The fresh sales rate of domestic slaughter enterprises has decreased, while the storage capacity rate of frozen products has increased.
Average weight chart of live pig trading
The upstream and downstream operations are in the same direction, and the pig market in the second quarter may be less than expected.
In the short term, the intention of resisting the price and refusing to sell at the breeding end is still strong. With the support of the improvement of warehousing and consumption, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased. With the favorable supply and demand, it is expected that the pig price will mainly fluctuate by the end of the month, and there is no lack of possibility of increase at the end of the month.
In the long run, at present, the upstream and downstream operations are in the same direction. The second fattening of the breeding end and the warehousing of the slaughtering end make the supply of pigs and pork increase more than expected in the second quarter. In addition, it is the off-season of consumption at that time, and it is difficult for demand to improve. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the pig market may go up in the second quarter, but the increase may not be as expected.
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