The latest data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that in June this year, the national average price of eggs was 3.2 yuan a catty, surprisingly, down nearly 30% from the beginning of the year. According to the report, except for a rebound in April due to a short-term boost in consumption, the price of eggs in the first half of the two quarters showed a continuing downward trend.
In the summer, the egg laying rate will be a slight decline or ups and downs, so in the egg market supply will be steady decline in consumption, due to the implementation of various regions to stimulate the consumption policy, egg consumption will also be effective to boost, and is expected that the egg price may be in the fall after the sustained rebound. From the regional point of view of the distribution of poultry egg production, most of China's poultry egg production is concentrated in the north of the Yangtze River, Shandong, Henan and Hebei, and the three provinces have more than one-third of the country's poultry egg production. In 2018, Shandong's poultry egg production has reached 4.470 million tons, ranking first in the country; Henan's poultry egg production also reached 4.1361 million tons, and Hebei's poultry egg production reached 3.780 million tons, ranking second and third in the country respectively.
It is expected that in the next few years, China's poultry egg production will still rank first in the world, showing a trend of steady growth, the growth rate of roughly 0.5-1.0%, if measured by 0.8%, by 2024, China's poultry egg production scale will reach 32.81 million tons. COFCO Futures feels that the recent reduction in new laying hens and the role of the phase-out peak, the egg supply side has appeared to be the top of the decline in expectations, followed by third-party agencies Booya and Zhuochuang's June laying hens inventory report have given a decline in the data of the chain of data guidance. In anticipation of the dominant and summer egg laying rate reduction and other topics, in the past 2 weeks, the egg market near-month contract bottomed out rebound, the price structure also showed near-month stronger than the far-month see-saw market.
The future direction of the price of eggs, or to see the effect of egg farming capacity, while focusing on the second half of the consumer recovery, including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday effect pull back. It is expected that egg prices may appear in the fall after a sustained rebound.