(A) Two annual balance sheets with different calibers-the myth of peanut consumption structure in China
There are differences in the collection caliber of peanut supply and demand statistics by different institutions or channels in the market. After screening and combing, we found the reason for the huge difference between USDA and the oil industry: USDA's peanut data are peanuts with shells, citing most domestic statistical data, and we calculate and predict them ourselves; The data given by the oil industry is peanut kernels without shells.
In 2020/202 1 year, China's peanut output was17.5 million tons, and the world oil output was120,000 tons. By calculating the oil yield of peanut (USDA is 0.32, domestic peanut is 0.45), we get that the shelling rate used by USDA is 0.7. In terms of consumption structure, the data of the two calibers are also different: USDA gives more than 9 million tons of squeezing, 7 million tons of food consumption, 6.5438+0 million tons of seed consumption loss, oil world gives more than 4 million tons of squeezing, and other consumption is more than 7 million tons. We can think that the concept of USDA squeezing is obviously different from the oil world.
(B) breakdown of demand types-the understanding of consumption statistics caliber
The forms of peanut consumption in China are peanut oil, peanut meal (feed raw material), raw peanut kernel (which can be eaten directly or fried), peanut snack food, peanut butter (breakfast food in Europe and America), candy raw material, peanut chips and chips, raw material of eight-treasure porridge, peanut protein and its downstream products. Among them, peanut protein production enterprises will produce cold-pressed peanut oil as a by-product, which accounts for a very small proportion in the total consumption of peanut oil, almost negligible.
From the industrial chain structure, the concentration of domestic peanut planting links in the upstream is low, and most farmers have a small planting area. After harvest, the proportion of seed retention and self-consumption (squeezing in small oil mills or eating directly) is extremely high. In our investigation, we found that in some areas (such as Shandong), the proportion of seed retention and self-retention consumption can reach 50%. In addition, many good-quality peanut kernels are sold in the form of peanut oil after being circulated to farmers' markets through small oil mills. If we distinguish the final consumption pattern of peanuts, it may be difficult to count the actual amount of peanut oil squeezed out.
The above two problems may be the reason why the rolling data of the two calibers are inconsistent. According to what we have learned in the industry survey, the crushing data of Oil World is basically consistent with the processing capacity of large domestic crushing enterprises. However, the data quoted by the official domestic statistical agencies and the US Department of Agriculture may include an estimate of the crushing capacity of the oil mill.
(3) fluctuation of annual data of planting area
Peanut belongs to drought-tolerant and barren crops, and the gross income of peanuts per mu of small farmers is about several hundred yuan. Compared with the income of some vegetables and fruits, the income of peanut planting is lower. The situation of peanut planting in different provinces in China leads to differences in the trend of increasing or decreasing the planting area in different provinces (for example, Henan has increased steadily, Shandong has decreased slowly), but the overall trend is strong and there will be no significant increase or decrease.
In recent years, the peanut planting area has been slowly declining in some traditional producing areas (such as Shandong), but it is slowly expanding in Henan and other areas. This is guided by local industrial policies, and a large part of the reason is that many peanuts are planted in mountains and sandy land. It is not good to plant other high-quality cash crops (such as corn) on the land where peanuts can be planted, because planting has different adaptability to soil and terrain, and planting crops that can compete with peanuts (such as sweet potatoes) has little benefit.
There are not many competing crops in peanut planting areas, soybean, corn and rice planting in Northeast China have not changed, and there is no annual land competition process for corn and soybean in traditional producing areas in the Midwest of the United States. Therefore, the fluctuation of domestic peanut harvest area has gradually weakened in recent years. The biggest change of supply side in recent years lies in the variable of import, and we will continue to expand it later.
Fluctuation of unit output and annual output data
In recent ten years, the average yield of peanut in China has been relatively stable, basically rising steadily along the long-term trend line. From the data point of view, the rate of return fluctuated greatly before 2005, and the data was relatively stable later. Although it is impossible to verify whether it is the change of statistical caliber or other reasons, the improvement of planting technology and production management level and the improvement of varieties in the past decade are objective.
Although the yield data does not fluctuate greatly year by year, it is particularly important to monitor the sowing progress and growth of peanut futures after listing, and discussing the increase or decrease of annual data is of low value for tracking and analyzing the market.
(V) Variable analysis of imported peanuts
1. Supply ratio of imported peanuts in large-scale crushing market
In 2020, due to the high domestic peanut price and strong demand, the number of imported peanuts and peanuts jumped again. On the one hand, under the preferential policy of duty-free import of peanuts in Africa, it is beneficial to domestic import trade; On the other hand, when African peanuts are exported to China, they are basically priced according to the price in the domestic sales area. The high domestic price has a positive stimulating effect on the export of African local suppliers.
In 2020, the number of imported peanuts and crushed peanuts in China is about 6.5438+0 million tons, most of which flow to large crushing plants, accounting for 654.38+0/4 to 654.38+0/3 of the crushing capacity of more than 4 million tons. For domestic peanut crushing enterprises, imports account for a considerable proportion in the supply.
The target of peanut futures in Zhengshang Institute is oil peanuts, so the import factor can not be ignored when analyzing the market. In addition, in 2020, the domestic import of crude peanut oil is about 200,000 tons, and the external dependence of domestic peanut oil (imported peanut crushing+imported peanut oil) is about 1/3.
2. Basic situation of peanut producing areas in Africa
In the past two years, Africa has been the main importer of peanut kernels in China. The main importers are Senegalese (West Africa), Sudanese (East Africa) and Ethiopians (East Africa). The above three countries are almost at the same latitude and located in the low latitude area near the equatorial line, so the planting cycle of peanuts is quite different from that of China.
Peanut planting in Senegal began in early June, and all fruits were harvested after 1 1. Sudan and Ethiopia are similar. It takes about two months to sail from West Africa to China, so the peak of peanut import starts from 1 and February and reaches its peak in March.
In 2020, domestic peanut imports will increase explosively compared with previous years. However, for Africa, there is little room to continue to increase peanut exports to China in the future, because the domestic planting area and the quantity available for export have been reduced to a very low proportion, and the local government's restrictions on peanut exports are relatively strict. In order to ensure the domestic peanut stock (at least to ensure the seed reserve above a safe level) and the local planting area is subject to backward agricultural management technology, there is little room for the peanut exported to China to increase significantly in the next few years.
3. Basic situation of American peanut market
The vast majority of domestic imported peanuts without shells come from the United States. The peanut producing areas in the United States are relatively concentrated, basically in the northern Gulf of Mexico, so the cargo ships sent by the United States to China basically depart from the Gulf of America, which is consistent with some routes of exporting soybeans from the United States to China. The planting time of peanuts in the United States is similar to that in China. Sowing began in April and harvesting began in September until the end of the year.
The output of peanuts in America is about 200-300 million a year. The yield is small but fluctuates greatly, because the planting area fluctuates greatly and the yield fluctuates little. The export proportion and quantity of American peanuts are at a high level relative to their output. In the last two market years, the export volume exceeded 700,000 tons. On the contrary, the amount of crushed peanuts in the United States is very small, only over 300,000 tons. The export volume of American peanuts to China is about 200,000 tons, and there may be some room for growth in the next few years, but there will not be much room for growth due to production.
Second, the cyclical events of the market year and their influence mechanism on prices
(A) the growth monitoring and yield forecasting methods of traditional oil crops (taking CBOT soybean as an example)
The traditional bulk oilseed market has strong financial attributes, and there are many relatively fixed and mature research methods. Taking CBOT soybean as an example, its growth monitoring and yield prediction methods have good reference significance. Before the beginning of each market year (near New Year's Day), we will estimate the planting area of crops to be planted in the next market year. Before the beginning of each market year and the critical growth period of crops, the biggest variables on the supply side are area and yield, so we will make some area prediction models when studying yield; In addition, after sowing and the whole growth period of crops, all the monitoring of growth and weather data is to get the long-term yield forecast.
The output per unit area is affected by many factors, including the technical level of production management and external factors such as pests and diseases. In the research, especially for a country or a large producing area, weather is the most easily monitored indicator in terms of the difficulty and objectivity of data acquisition, and the output is most affected by weather factors. Therefore, it is necessary to track and monitor precipitation, precipitation days, accumulated temperature and all kinds of abnormal precipitation and temperature data, grasp the current crop growth, infer the possible future yield level, and constantly infer and verify the growth trend by using meteorological-yield model, satellite remote sensing data and field investigation, especially in key growth stages, such as peanut flowering, pod setting and full harvest, and satellite meteorological data cannot be effectively monitored, so field investigation is essential. In addition, when unexpected factors occur, the market's expectation of the rate of return will also change. The change of area and yield will lead to the change of forward yield forecast data, and finally change the expectation of annual balance sheet, thus affecting the pricing of forward contracts.
(2) sowing date and key growth period of peanut
The planting distribution of oily peanuts in China is relatively concentrated: the first place of origin is Henan, the second is Shandong, and a large part of the planting comes from Liaoning. Henan and Shandong are basically at the same latitude, so the sowing date is basically the same. There are two sowing dates in Henan and Shandong, which are generally divided into spring peanuts and summer peanuts. Spring peanuts began to be sown in April, and the average surface temperature should be greater than or equal to 15℃ for five consecutive days before peanuts can germinate and grow. In April, many places in Henan and Shandong could not meet this requirement and needed to be covered with plastic film. Summer peanuts are basically sown after the first rain in May, when the surface temperature has reached a sufficient level, so there is no need to cover them with plastic film. The sowing date of spring peanut is more than one month earlier than that of summer peanut, and the accumulated temperature obtained during the growing period is greater than that of summer peanut, so the pod fullness and average oil content of spring peanut are greater than that of summer peanut.
The proportion of peanuts in Henan and Shandong in spring and summer is slightly different in different regions. In the investigation, we know that the proportion of spring and summer peanuts in many areas of Shandong is almost 50% respectively, and the proportion of spring peanuts planted in some production areas with high requirements for peanut quality is higher than that of summer peanuts. The proportion of summer peanuts in Henan province is higher than that in Shandong province, and its summer peanuts are basically interplanted after wheat harvest or shortly after harvest, so the land utilization rate is high. The latitude of Liaoning is higher than that of Henan and Shandong, and the lower temperature makes it impossible for peanuts to get enough accumulated temperature, so there is only one sowing date for peanuts in Liaoning.
When monitoring and tracking the growth potential of flowers, not every period is critical. Peanut is drought-tolerant, and the precipitation during the whole growth period is 300-500mm. Only the flowering and pod-setting period is the key period for water demand during the whole growth period. After full fruit maturity, according to the domestic peanut yield data, the water demand in September is not large. If there is more precipitation during this period (such as 2020), the physical and chemical indexes of peanuts will be reduced or even reduced.
(3) Supply time of domestic peanuts and imported peanuts
Domestic peanuts are listed in succession after the middle and late September, and the time of listing varies slightly from place to place: generally, Henan is listed earlier than Shandong, and Liaoning is the latest. The oil factory will complete the purchase of most domestic oilseed rice before the Spring Festival. Because traders will hoard some peanuts, the oil factory will not complete the acquisition before the Spring Festival. The stock of oily rice in big traders or screening plants rarely stays after May, and the supply peak of imported peanuts appears in the second quarter, so imported peanuts have a great influence on the price after the Spring Festival, while domestic peanuts have a great influence on the price before the Spring Festival, which requires special attention.
(D) Operating rate and peanut inventory cycle
For the whole peanut crushing industry, the average monthly capacity utilization rate is much lower than other oil crushing enterprises. The months with high press start-up rate are concentrated in the peanut purchase period, and gradually enter the off-season after May and June every year. However, in 2020, the situation began to change. The large increase in the number of imported peanuts has led to a higher operating rate in the traditional off-season than in previous years. If the quantity of imported peanuts is the same as or slightly increased in 2020 in the future, the operating rate of peanut crushing may continue in the off-season.
Generally speaking, peanut crushing enterprises have two strategies in production and storage: first, some enterprises with high brand value and large sales volume buy peanuts and crush them into peanut oil for the purpose of meeting the sales of small packaged oil, so such enterprises will not establish a particularly large inventory of peanuts, basically squeeze them when they receive them, and then store them in the form of peanut oil, and peanut meal will be sold on the market with them; However, some peanut crushing enterprises have heavy trade attributes. They do OEM work for other enterprises, or sell bulk oil to other peanut oil canneries. When the squeezing profit is good, they will choose to squeeze more and sell more oil. When the crushing profit is not good, if the peanut market is good, they will mainly sell peanuts, so the storage of peanuts in such enterprises may be relatively large. Note that the storage capacity mentioned here refers to low temperature storage. Peanut is an oil seed with very unstable storage. When the temperature is higher than 15℃, the acid value and peroxide value of peanuts will rise rapidly. Therefore, after May every year, traders with poor storage conditions will force shipments in time, and oil plants will crush peanuts into peanut oil in time.
Thirdly, the influence of industrial profits and prices of related varieties on peanut prices.
(A) the price correlation of peanuts, peanut oil and soybean oil
Peanut is basically priced according to the price of peanut oil, and there is a high positive correlation between the two prices. Here we introduce the concept of oil content, that is, (the price of one unit of oil seed pressed into oil x the oil yield)/the price of one unit of oil seed. Peanut oil has a high oil content, with an average level of 70%, an upper limit of about 80% and a lower limit of about 50%, which is higher than soybean oil even at the lower limit. The main reason is that the oil yield of peanuts is very high, while the price of peanut meal is quite low. Judging from the oil content, oil plants basically squeeze peanuts to obtain peanut oil.
As a kind of vegetable oil, peanut oil seems to have a great relationship with soybean oil, the largest oil in the domestic market. However, the actual calculation shows that the correlation is not great, and the price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil is not in a relatively stable range. In many cases, the price fluctuations of peanut oil and soybean oil are inconsistent, especially from the beginning of 2020 to May, domestic soybean oil was affected by many factors such as COVID-19, and the price dropped sharply. It almost fell to the low point of 19 in June and July, while the price of peanut oil rose instead of falling, so we saw that the prices of peanut oil and soybean oil rose sharply at the beginning of the year, but recently, with the increase of soybean oil, the price relationship between them was repaired.
Peanut oil and soybean oil have little correlation. Personally, peanut oil is a relatively high-end vegetable oil in China, and the unit price of peanut oil is at a high level at present. In fact, the terminal consumption of peanut oil is not particularly sensitive to the price, and the price correlation between peanut oil and other bulk vegetable oils is not strong, so the consumers of peanut oil have higher viscosity than other vegetable oil consumers, which leads to the relatively independent price of peanut oil.
(II) Price Correlation between Peanut Meal and Soybean Meal Among the market participants in the peanut industry, there are both traditional oil giants, such as Luhua Yihai COFCO, which basically accounts for more than half of the peanut oil output of large crushing enterprises. For example, Yihai and COFCO are very strong in trading other oils and using futures for risk management, which will promote the rational and healthy development of the market, and there will also be speculative power in peanut varieties that are used to frying fresh varieties, which will cause the elasticity of peanut futures prices. Therefore, the actual supply elasticity of peanuts is relatively large, although the annual fluctuation of its output is not large, and the weather and growth monitoring during planting may also cause more price fluctuations, so peanuts should be a variety that is not too short of stories.
6. I hope that there will be more exchanges between enterprises in the industry and between the industry and benign investment companies to promote the healthy and stable development of the market. As a seller's futures company, I hope you can organize more market cultivation and investor education activities in the early stage of listing, so that more traders can understand peanut futures.