It is understood that in August, domestic soybean imports remained at 710.7 million tons, down 24.5% year-on-year. However, the expenditure only decreased by 2.4%. It can be seen that the international soybean import cost has risen sharply and the scale has gradually decreased, which also limits the scale of soybean entering Hong Kong. Domestic mainstream oil plants are in short supply and soybean meal is in short supply. With the development of domestic aquaculture, the national industrial feed output in August. It can be seen that the demand for feed at the domestic breeding end has increased sharply. Jin Jiu Silver entered 10, and downstream traders concentrated on stocking, which further aggravated the pressure of tight domestic soybean meal supply!
Recently, the price of soybean meal in the market has continued to rise. The price quoted by mainstream oil plants exceeds 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price quoted by some enterprises reaches 5,500 yuan/ton! It is understood that every increase in the soybean meal market 100 yuan/ton directly leads to an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg in the domestic pig fattening cost price! In normal years in previous years, the soybean meal market was generally around 3,800 yuan/ton. Based on this calculation, due to the rising soybean meal market, the pig slaughter cost of farmers has increased 1.26 yuan/kg!
At present, the domestic pig price has entered the "12 prefix". The price of pigs in the north is generally sideways at 12 yuan/kg, while most markets in the south are hovering around 12~ 12.8 yuan/kg! Although, recently, due to the weakening of the second fattening phenomenon, the enthusiasm of pig enterprises in the group has rebounded, and pig prices have risen and fallen. On September 27th, the quotation of slaughter enterprises fell to 12.06 yuan/kg!
However, with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the consumer market has gradually entered the peak season. Due to the expansion of the market standard fertilizer spread, farmers' enthusiasm for raising pigs is getting stronger, and the market reluctance to sell will continue throughout the fourth quarter. The increase in feed costs further supports farmers' bullish sentiment. Therefore, the pig price will remain high and sideways in the fourth quarter, which also has obvious support for the pork price in the market outlook!
For the egg market, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, due to the decline of consumption inertia, the average wholesale price of eggs in the production and marketing market gradually fell to 5.08~5.2 1 yuan/kg! However, at the end of the month, with the favorable support of the National Day, the price of eggs continued to strengthen. At present, the average wholesale price of eggs in the production and marketing market generally rises to about 5.5 yuan/kg!
Due to the insufficient number of newly opened laying hens in China at this stage, the old chickens were eliminated before, and the laying capacity of the breeding end was weak. However, the market demand has entered the peak season, and the weather has turned cold, which will soon make up for the enthusiasm of the end market. As a result of superposition, the domestic feed cost has risen sharply, and the soybean meal market has skyrocketed to 5,500 yuan/ton. There is pressure to reduce the production of new grain corn in the corn market, and it is expected that the price of corn will have a strong trend! Therefore, the price of eggs in the fourth quarter will still be high and sideways!
According to official data, the average wholesale price of pork rose to 3 1.28 yuan/kg on September 26th, and the price of eggs remained at 1 1.52 yuan/kg! The wholesale price of beef is 77.36 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price of mutton is 67.40 yuan/kg.
It can be seen that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, affected by the international inflationary pressure, the prices of bulk agricultural products fluctuated at a high level, and the domestic feed cost rose sharply. The consumer market is gradually entering the peak season, and the domestic egg and pork prices will remain at a high level!
However, in recent years, for ordinary residents, affected by the mask problem, residents' income has dropped, inflationary pressure has increased and living expenses have increased. The test of consumers has just begun! However, the government has taken many measures at the same time. On the one hand, in order to cope with the high price of soybean meal, the reduction and substitution is accelerating, especially the recent official release of the "Proposal on Promoting the Reduction and Substitution of Soybean Meal with the Focus on" Improving Efficiency and Reducing Consumption ",which effectively relieves the pressure of soybean meal price increase on feed costs; On the other hand, in order to stabilize the market supply, the government will continue to put in reserve pork, which will help ease the pressure of pork supply in the market and limit the excessive rise of pig prices!
Soybean meal soared, the price of eggs was on the high side, and the price of pigs stood at the prefix "12". The test of consumers has just begun! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!