According to statistics, on June 3, the purchase price of corn in Heilongjiang was 2060-2080 yuan/ton, higher than 2040 yuan/ton last month; The purchase price of corn in Jilin is 2080 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as that of last month; The price of Dalian corn port is 2200 yuan/ton, higher than 2 180 yuan/ton last month; The cost of corn in Guangdong is 2350-2370 yuan/ton, slightly higher than that of 2300-2370 yuan/ton last month. According to the information provided by Yan Jiong-jun, director of South China Information Department of China Feed Industry Association, there is a downward trend of corn stocks in Guangdong docks. As of May 23rd, the corn inventory of Guangdong Wharf was only 290,000 tons, far lower than 460,000 tons in the same period in April. Insufficient inventory will inevitably cause feed enterprises to prepare corn procurement plans in advance, which will play a certain role in promoting the price increase of corn.
Internationally, the price of corn in the US market rose slightly recently, closing at 766.5 cents per bushel on June 2. Concerns about the future supply of the market led to a general increase in the prices of agricultural products in the US market on the 2nd. During the period of corn sowing, the very bad weather conditions made almost no one in the market believe that the US corn production could reach a record high this year. In terms of futures, according to analysts from Haida University, in September this year, the foreign corn forward was nearly 2,600 yuan/ton, which was higher than the domestic futures price.
A person who asked not to be named in the procurement information collection center of Haida Group said that the recent gradual rise of aquatic products has also provided a thrust for the rise of corn. In June, the aquatic products market began to pick up, and it gradually reached its peak in August and September. During this period, the feed factory will also increase the purchase of corn which accounts for nearly 15% of low-grade feed (such as grass carp and tilapia).
In an interview with Southern Rural News, the heads of purchasing departments of several livestock and poultry feed enterprises believe that the recent decrease in diseases such as pig diarrhea and the increase in the amount of supplements will increase corn consumption to a certain extent, and the price of corn may rise.
According to the information provided by Yan Jiongjun, the Notice on Suspending the Corn VAT Deduction Policy of Some Corn Deep Processing Enterprises issued by the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China in April will expire on June 30th. If there is no new regulatory policy by then, the expansion of corn deep processing enterprises will bring new upward pressure on corn prices.
Generally speaking, this year's corn supply may continue to be tight in the next few months, and there will be shocks. As for the impact on terminal farming, Haida Group analysts believe that the current high pig price is due to the small number of pigs rather than the rising price of raw materials; The feed price will rise due to the increase of corn price, but it has little effect on terminal farming in the near future.
Sheng, sales manager of Guangdong Huidong Shengyuan Agriculture Co., Ltd. said that the increase in corn prices in recent years has also increased the pressure on breeding to a certain extent, and the price of pig food is far from the breakeven point in the past. Specifically, according to the previous feed price, pigs can make a profit when they are sold above 5 yuan, but they are losing money when they are sold to 7 yuan, and all this is attributed to the rise of raw materials such as corn.