From the point of view of the fluctuation of pig prices in this year, it can be summarized as "the first is overjoyed, followed by sadness".

The year 2022 has been seen as the year of the inflection point of the pig cycle, since April, has been in the doldrums of pig prices finally came out of the trough, and then experienced two rounds of upsurge:

One round is in June-July, which is also considered to be the inflection point of the pig cycle, the price of pigs quickly rose above the cost line, making the market mood is greatly invigorated.

The second round is in September-October, affected by the market sentiment, farmers are very optimistic about the fourth quarter and the Spring Festival pig price trend, so the pressure of the fence to sell, the second fattening also increased significantly, so that the market stage supply and demand tensions, the price of hogs up to the high point of 28 yuan / kg.

But then, in November, the price of pigs began to fall, and in December, a steep decline, once again below the cost line, until the current, less than 10 days from the Spring Festival, the price of pigs is still below the cost line wobble.

Sometimes let a person despair is not the trough itself, but finally out of the trough, full of hope, complacency when the results fell into the trough again, it can be said that the current mentality of pig farmers is this.

Compared with the previous decline, the decline is even more tragic:

One is that pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season, the peak season is difficult to be prosperous.

The previous decline in hog prices was mainly due to high production capacity, supply clearly outstripped demand, so prices went down.

But the current hog production capacity has been restored to the normal retention range, but by the impact of the epidemic, consumption is slow to revitalize.

Not only is the peak season not prosperous, but it is even difficult to be prosperous.

This also means that the control pivot began to shift from the supply side to the demand side, and when the demand side can be restored is not the supply side can be adjusted.

The second is that hog prices are falling and feed is high.

Hog prices fell from the annual highs back to the lows in just two months, but 2022 feed prices are rising frequently.

While some feed companies have begun to pull back prices recently as soybean meal prices have fallen, they are still high compared to previous increases.

This means that, purely from the price point of view, pig prices back to the low point, but the pressure on farmers has multiplied.

Third, the scale of the field of the mill.

The previous round of hog production capacity of the depth of the demineralization, in the words of people in the industry, rather than small and medium-sized retail households.

Because compared to large-scale enterprises, small and medium-sized households, because of the pressure capacity is not strong, weak resistance to price, especially in the continuous decline in hog prices, continuous loss is often difficult to adhere to, will choose to clear the pen to exit.

And this time, pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season, the peak season is difficult, which also has the factors of large-scale farms continue to increase.

In such a situation, even if the next with the opening of the Spring Festival, the increase in the number of people returning to their hometowns, there will be a rise in consumption, but in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the price of hogs is also very difficult to have a big rebound.

However, raising pigs is a long-term thing, the year is over does not mean that the worries of pig farmers in the past, and after the year is about to usher in the traditional consumption off-season, which makes the farmers even more worried about: 2023 pig prices can still go up?

There are 3 major changes in the hog market in 2023 after the capacity de-capacitation, capacity return and the peak season in late 2022:

One is that the concentration of the industry will be further increased, and the small and medium-sized households will continue to be under pressure.

The rapid increase in industry concentration by headline companies is a major focus issue for the hog market in 2023.

From the data, as of November last year, the national hog listed enterprises accounted for 25% of the inventory, while more than 10,000 sows accounted for 14%, sows 1,000 to 10,000 head accounted for 14%, together accounted for about 53%.

And in 2019, the share of enterprises with more than 1,000 sows is only 20%, which shows the rapid improvement.

And in 2023, this trend is set to grow further.

With the head enterprise's market share getting higher and higher, and its price control power over the market getting stronger and stronger, the pressure of small and medium-sized households will rise further.

The second is that farming costs are difficult to reduce.

In addition to the worrying price of pigs, farming costs are more worrying.

And 2023 to see, the feed of the main raw material corn and soybean meal supply and demand is still tight, so feed prices are expected to fall back limited, and in the capacity of the addition, the demand has some support.

This means that the chances of farming costs going significantly lower in 2023 are not high, coupled with the further expansion of large-scale enterprises, the pressure on farmers is still not small.

Thirdly, the market is gradually returning, and the volatility of pig prices is weakening.

While consumption is expected to return in full force in 2023, the expectation of full retaliatory consumption is not high, and the decline in income is the main reason.

Combined with a small increase in supply, it is therefore difficult to see much volatility in hog price increases.

However, this is only based on the absence of other unexpected factors under the influence of the judgment, and among the other influencing factors still need to be vigilant is the epidemic infection rate of change, the trend of pig prices is still threatening.

For pig farmers, 2023 is still a year can not be relaxed, the operational level should be more to reduce costs and increase efficiency, should not blindly increase production and pressure, 2023 market operation space is not large, the second half of the year is the double increase in supply and demand, the pressure still exists.

For the development of the hog farming industry, there has been a call for small and medium-sized retailers to have more room for survival.

On the one hand, in the past, every family in the countryside to raise pigs, it can be said that in a fairly long period of time, pig farming and rural areas, farmers are inseparable.

And from the consumer level, many consumers have also said that the pigs raised by large enterprises do not have a piggy flavor, tastes like chewing wax, not as fragrant as the pork raised at home when I was a child.

This is actually not simply a feeling and nostalgia, and now many rural free-range pork is also very popular in the market, which can be seen that there is a certain market.

And on the other hand, in the development of various industries, almost all have capital to enter, and the intervention of capital for the industry is also prone to cause abnormal fluctuations in the market.

Capital is profit-seeking, and hog farming is an industry that has a bearing on the nation's economy and people's livelihood, and should be controlled.

And in the long run, the hog industry is a huge industry, small and medium-sized households will not disappear, but small and medium-sized households need space to survive.

The development of an industry can not be biased in favor of which side, only each have a market, space, profit, the industry can develop normally in the long run.