It's already over half of June, and it will enter July in less than half a month. In July, all parts of China have basically entered the summer, and everything is thriving in summer, and the "four things" related to farmers will usher in price reduction.

I. Fertilizer

Spring is the peak season for agriculture and demand for chemical fertilizers. Coupled with the unstable situation in foreign countries, rising logistics and transportation costs, domestic enterprises hoard and are reluctant to sell, and domestic fertilizer prices have been rising all the way in recent months.

However, after entering July, the prices of fertilizers such as urea, compound fertilizer and potash fertilizer are expected to fall.

1. Recently, the price of urea has been dropping by 30-60 yuan/ton/day. On the one hand, due to the end of the peak demand season, the decline in market demand leads to insufficient price support.

On the other hand, the enterprise overhaul ended and the output resumed.

Coupled with the strong wait-and-see mood of traders, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high.

In July, the terminal demand is still weak, and the market lacks favorable support, so the price of urea may continue to fall.

2. The price of compound fertilizer is stable in the near future. However, due to the high price of some raw materials of compound fertilizer and weak market demand, traders are cautious about the price increase. It is expected that the price of compound fertilizer will show a trend of high before and then weak in July.

3. At present, the price of potash fertilizer is relatively stable, and it has not decreased because of the decrease of urea price. This is because although the terminal demand is weak, the operating rate of manufacturers is also at a low level, which offsets the decline in demand.

Second, the price of meat.

In recent days, the prices of pork, beef and white striped chicken are all falling. As of June 15 14: 00, the average wholesale price of pork in China was 20.95 yuan/kg, the price of beef was 77.43 yuan/kg and the price of white striped chicken was 17.92 yuan/kg.

Although the aquaculture industry experienced a period of de-capacity in the second half of last year and the first half of this year, the production capacity of pigs, live cattle and broilers is still relatively surplus, and the demand side will recover in July, but the surplus state is difficult to change. In addition, the frozen meat on the market will be released from the warehouse one after another, and the previously overstocked cattle and pigs will also be released one after another. It is expected that the meat price will continue to adjust downwards in July.

Third, the price of eggs.

On June 15, the national average wholesale price of eggs was 9.75 yuan/kg. Specifically, the price of the three major sales areas in Beishangguang is 4.29-4.5 yuan/kg, the price of Hebei in the main producing area is 4. 13-4.3 yuan, the price of Henan is 4.23-4.37 yuan, and the price of Shandong is 4.28-4.5 yuan.

The logic of the continuous decline in egg prices in July is as follows: 1 and the high temperature season in July, farmers are more enthusiastic about selling eggs; 2. The terminal market lacks favorable stimulation of consumption such as festivals; 3. The overall productivity of laying hens is low.

However, the bottom support of eggs is also relatively strong, because the inventory at all levels is not high, and the cold storage will absorb goods at a low price after the continuous price reduction of eggs. In addition, the current farmers' breeding costs are high and they have a strong belief in stopping growth. It is estimated that local prices will remain around 4. 1-4.3 yuan/kg.

Fourth, the price of wheat and corn.

In recent days, great changes have taken place in food prices. The price of corn has turned around from the previous shock, and the price of wheat has also dropped. In July, the trend of wheat price is relatively clear, and there are many variables in corn.

Let's start with the price of wheat. In July, the wheat harvest was basically completed, and the yield and quality were basically determined. In the general direction, new wheat is listed on a large scale, the demand for terminal flour is in the off-season, and the price of wheat may fall.

However, there is no lack of favorable support for wheat prices, farmers are reluctant to sell, grain merchants, flour enterprises, feed enterprises and grain depots are scrambling to harvest, and international wheat prices are running at a high level. It is not difficult to predict that the price of first-class wheat will remain above 1.55 yuan.

Let's talk about the price of corn. Our consistent view is that corn prices will continue to be bullish, but may fluctuate in July. Although the surplus grain in the market is getting less and less, the improvement of the breeding market will help to increase the demand for corn, and some corn planting areas will be replaced by soybeans. However, the impact of a large number of new wheat on corn prices in July can not be ignored, and the auction of low-priced directional rice will add a little uncertainty to the trend of corn prices. In July, corn prices may stop rising and fall slightly.