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Vegetable Basket Analysis: Egg prices fell below 4.5, cattle and sheep are bullish, shrimp prices are rising, but vegetables cannot hold on.

In November, the "vegetable basket" index gradually corrected and returned to normal levels. In particular, the prices of vegetables, eggs, chicken, etc. dropped significantly. However, the prices of beef, mutton and pork have begun to rise, and the market for fish and shrimp is also very good. What is going on?

01. Egg prices fell back from highs

Judging from the market situation in the main production areas, the average egg price was 5.09 yuan/jin in early November, but now it has dropped to 4.63 yuan/jin. , the market dropped sharply by 0.4 yuan/jin, which also meant that the profits of eggs fell. However, because egg prices have been at a high level for a long time, egg farmers did not panic too much.

Judging from today’s egg prices, the average price in the production area is 4.63 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan from the previous week; the average price in the sales area is 4.73 yuan, down 0.03 yuan from the previous week. It increased by 1.49 yuan year-on-year. Compared with last year's loss for most of the year, egg prices have continued to be positive since July this year, and egg farmers' profits have increased.

Although egg prices have fallen recently, the decline is not too large. The main reason is that the stock of laying hens has fallen by 7-8% year-on-year, and the stock in October was 1.17 billion. Because the inventory is not high, coupled with the low temperature, egg production has declined, so the inventory is not too much, and it is difficult to induce a sharp drop in egg prices.

At the same time, today's low temperature also makes it easier to store eggs. Egg farmers are not in a hurry to sell eggs, so it is difficult for egg prices in production areas to fall sharply, so the market is relatively stable today. Nowadays, feed costs are significantly higher, rising twice in succession in November, which has also increased the cost of slaughter and supported egg prices.

As for the next market situation, it also depends on the market demand. At present, processing enterprises and middlemen are in a wait-and-see attitude, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and short-term egg prices are still in a state of flux.

02. Bullish prices for cattle and sheep

The market for cattle and sheep has risen significantly recently, with prices rising in both production and sales areas.

For example, in the live sheep market: Hohhot fattening sheep have risen to 16 yuan per pound, and sheep farmers are actively selling them; Bengbu goats of about 90 pounds are 20 yuan/jin, the price is not bad; Yangzhong goats are 22-22.5 yuan /jin, sheep dealers are active in purchasing.

The price of sheep in Tang County has generally increased by about 1 yuan compared with mid-November. For example, local Xinmin sheep are 15.3 yuan, fine-wool sheep strings are 15 yuan, and small-tailed Han sheep strings are 15.1 yuan/jin. Sheep farmers He said that the price of sheep has been falling in the past six months, reaching as low as 12 yuan per catty. Now that the price is rising, the profits of sheep farmers are also rising.

The price of cattle has now risen to more than 17 yuan, with prices in Shandong being 17-17.8 yuan/catty, Henan being 17.1-17.7 yuan/catty, Guangdong and Guangxi being 17.2-18.4 yuan/catty, and Hebei being 17- 17.7 yuan/jin, Liaoning is 17.2-17.7 yuan/jin, Shaanxi is 16.9-17.7 yuan/jin, and Guizhou is 17.2-17.9 yuan/jin.

Compared with the previous year’s cattle price of 13-14 yuan, the current live cattle market has generally increased by 3-4 yuan, and cattle farmers’ profits have increased significantly. A cow can earn at least 5,000 yuan.

As the prices of cattle and sheep origin rise, market retail sales also rise. For example, in the author's hometown, the price of beef is 45-50 yuan/jin, the price of mutton is 38-45 yuan/jin, and the price of goat meat is 50. -55 yuan/jin.

03. Shrimp prices go up

Since mid-November, shrimp prices have started to go up. Compared with October, King Kong shrimps have increased by 12 yuan/catty, and white shrimps have generally increased by 6 yuan/catty. -8 yuan, Roche shrimp increased by 10 yuan/catty.

In the past week, as the number of ponds in stock has been low and market demand has increased, shrimp prices have once again experienced a rise. For example, the export price of white shrimp in Zhongshan, Guangdong generally increased by 1 yuan compared with last week, with 40 heads at 20.5 yuan/catty; 50 heads at 18 yuan/catty; 60 heads at 15 yuan/catty, and the market price increased by 1 yuan.

Guangxi Beihai production area has increased by 1-2 yuan, of which 40 heads have increased from 25 yuan to 27 yuan/catty, 50 heads have increased from 21 yuan to 22 yuan/catty, and 60 heads have increased from 15 yuan to 27 yuan/catty. 17 yuan/jin.

In the Yangtze River Delta, the price of white shrimp has generally increased by 2 yuan, and in Yancheng, Jiangsu, it has increased by 2-3 yuan, of which 30 heads are 21 yuan/catty, 40 heads are 19 yuan/catty, 50 The head is 17 yuan/jin.

In addition to white shrimps, Roche shrimps have also increased significantly, with an increase of 5-6 yuan/jin compared to the same period last year.

For example, in Zhaoqing at 2 cents, shrimp prices are 34 yuan/catty in the morning and 38-45 yuan/catty in the afternoon, a sharp increase of 6 yuan on a week-on-week basis. The main reason is that there is a shortage of shrimp in the local area and the market demand is high, so the price of prawns has increased sharply. In the Pearl River Delta, the price of 3-cent Roche shrimp generally increased by 5-6 yuan. For example, the purchase price of 3-cent shrimp in Zhuhai was 40-44 yuan/jin, and in Zhongshan it was 40 yuan/jin.

In general, shrimp prices are good. As the amount of prawns in ponds is low, the market price of shrimp has increased significantly. It is expected that shrimp prices will continue to be good in the future.

04. Have vegetables fallen to “cabbage prices”?

Recently, vegetable prices have dropped significantly in both the north and the south, with a drop of 30-50%. Many people lament that vegetables have fallen to "cabbage prices." What's going on?

From the perspective of a supermarket in Beijing, cabbage fell from 3 yuan to 1.19 yuan/catty, broccoli fell from 9 yuan to 4.5 yuan/catty, green pepper fell from 6 yuan to 3.98 yuan/catty, and radish fell from 6 yuan to 3.98 yuan/catty. From 3.5 yuan to 1.2 yuan/jin, lettuce fell from 7 yuan to 4 yuan/jin, and spinach fell from 15 yuan to 5 yuan/jin.

The person in charge said that the recent price of leafy vegetables has generally fallen by 30-50%, mainly due to the large supply in the market, especially Shandong greenhouse vegetables entering Beijing, and vegetables from the south also entering Beijing one after another, making Vegetable prices are somewhat stable.

A vegetable farmer in Liaoning said that due to snow in the early stage, the output of greenhouse vegetables fell. For example, the weight of cucumbers fell from 1,000 jins to 200 jins. However, now that the temperature has risen, cucumber output has increased, so the wholesale price has dropped. About 2 yuan. The same is true for lettuce. In the early stage, the production was reduced by 40% due to rain and snow, but now the production has recovered, with an output of 4,000 kilograms per acre, and the purchase price has also dropped from 2.5 yuan to 1-1.2 yuan.

It is the increase in vegetable production that has ensured sufficient supply in the market, but the vegetable market has naturally declined, and some vegetables have fallen to "cabbage prices", which also makes consumers excited.