according to the research conducted by the organization, in the past two years, due to the shortage of live pigs, the price of live pigs in the market rose sharply, which also ushered in a historic "spring" for farmers. At that time, the average profit of farmers who slaughtered live pigs reached 2,5-3, yuan, while in the previous pig cycle, the average profit of pig heads was only 1, yuan/head. It can be seen that the current pig cycle was superimposed by the non-epidemic and the downward trend of the pig cycle.
However, with the accelerated release of domestic pig production capacity, the price of pigs continues to fall. Nowadays, domestic pig breeding faces are losing money to varying degrees. Many farmers have lost 7 to 8 yuan in pig slaughter, and the profit of pig breeding has dropped sharply. Pig breeding has entered the "cold winter" ahead of schedule!
according to official data, as of July, the national pig stock and sow stock have recovered to 11.6% and 1.2% at the end of 17th century, and the market pig production capacity has fully recovered, which has been greatly released by the supply of pigs. Although it enters the "golden autumn" in September, the pig price decline will still be outstanding!
On September 19th, August 13th of the lunar calendar, the Mid-Autumn Festival came, and the National Development and Reform Commission also made it clear that a new round of pork purchasing and storage plan has been launched, and as many as 17 provinces and cities in China have already taken the lead in purchasing and storage. Although pork purchasing and storage is conducive to stabilizing the supply of live pigs in the market, it is expected that pork consumption in the downstream of the Mid-Autumn Festival market will rebound, but from the performance of live pigs in the market, the price of pigs is not satisfactory!
With many favorable supports, the decline of pig price gradually narrowed, but the market rise was blocked. On the 19th, the pig price stabilized sideways, and the market stabilized at 6.21 yuan/kg! The root of limiting the rebound of pig prices is still the loose supply of pigs in the market, the sufficient supply of pork in the downstream, the less-than-expected consumption of pork, and a certain stalemate in the market. Slaughterhouse enterprises do not have the basis for raising prices and collecting pigs! However, as the domestic temperature gradually turns cold, the market sentiment gradually rebounds, and the demand for pork at the consumer end is gradually boosted. It is expected that the pig price will be stable and strong. So, does this mean that the downward cycle of the current pig cycle is over and the rising cycle of pig prices is coming?
according to the analysis of the industry, with the continuous decline of pig prices in the third quarter, the clearing of inefficient production capacity in the market accelerated, and the number of sows fell for the first time in July. However, with the decline of pig prices at the bottom, the elimination of sows by farmers gradually intensified, which is another performance of a pig cycle. So, is this pig cycle in the end?
In this regard, according to the analysis of the insiders, due to the growth scale of live pigs, the production capacity of live pigs in the market fully recovered in July, and the next 4-6 months will also be the stage of full recovery of live pigs in the market. Therefore, the supply of live pigs is still in an inertial growth stage, and the current pig cycle is still not over, and the pig price still has the basis to continue to fall. However, due to the peak season of pork consumption in the third and fourth quarters, it is expected that the pig price will be supported to some extent.
With the release of pig production capacity, pig prices have fallen to the "floor line", and the rising cycle is approaching? Expert: Not to the end! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!