Compared with the same period of last year, the soybean meal market soared by more than 1.400 yuan/ton, which also aggravated the domestic livestock and poultry breeding costs. Recently, domestic feed prices have risen sharply, and the prices of pig feed, aquatic feed, meat and poultry feed and ruminant feed have all risen to varying degrees. Some aquatic feed increased by 300~500 yuan/ton, while some pig feed, suckling pig feed and concentrated feed increased.
Farmers are willing to be bullish because of the sharp rise in feed costs. Due to the market's consistent performance of bullish pig prices in the fourth quarter, the enthusiasm of retail pig farms is weak and the sentiment of fattening is getting stronger. Especially after entering the fourth quarter, the price of big pigs in the market rose sharply, which also promoted the enthusiasm of farmers to raise pigs. In September, the enthusiasm of retail pig farms was weak Although the rhythm of large pig enterprises is normal, it is good for National Day consumption. The pig price still shows a strong fluctuation trend, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening increased in September, which further aggravated the performance of reducing pig sources from slaughter enterprises to factories and aggravated the staged increase of pig prices!
According to the quotation of slaughter enterprises, on June 2nd 10, the average price of domestic lean pigs rose to 24.53 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs increased by 0. 15 yuan compared with the previous day. The market shows a continuous rise. The center of gravity of pig prices in north and south areas has moved up. The pig prices in low-priced areas in the north have generally risen to more than 24 yuan/Jin, while those in some high-priced areas in North China have risen.
Affected by the festive atmosphere, groups of pig enterprises have increased their volume, and the circulation of pigs is less. The consumer market in some parts of the south is hot, and there are operations to raise prices and ensure quantity in slaughter enterprises. The price of pigs in many places in the south has risen sharply, and the profit of the breeding end has been greatly boosted! According to the institutional analysis, before the next 5.5 months, the fattening profit level of purchased piglets will be as high as 108 1 yuan/head, while the profit level of pig slaughter in self-breeding and autotrophic mode will be 9 14 yuan/head, which makes farmers overjoyed. At present, the profit of pig slaughter has reached a high level!
However, this round of pig price increase is quite irrational. The logic of rising pig prices, on the one hand, retail pig farms blindly press the fence, and the second fattening concentrates on filling the fence to mark the pigs, which makes it more difficult for slaughter enterprises to collect pigs; On the other hand, affected by the festive atmosphere, pork consumption accelerated, the market acceptance level rebounded, and some slaughter enterprises increased their orders. Under the operation of raising the price and ensuring the quantity, the pig price has continued a steady and strong trend!
However, due to the rapid rise in pig prices, the increase in pork prices exceeded expectations, and official regulatory measures continued to exert their strength. Recently, on the one hand, the official interviews with relevant media, some media in order to sell veterinary drugs, rendering the atmosphere of price increases, is not conducive to the long-term stability of the pig market; On the other hand, the government continues to put in reserve pork, forming a joint force with the local authorities. In September, the reserve pork was 200,000 tons, and the low-priced frozen meat had a strong impact on the fresh market, further limiting the rebound of pig prices!
Now, with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the domestic pig price is rising step by step, and the price has risen to the high point of the year, and farmers have high profits. However, due to excessive market pressure and the phenomenon of secondary fattening, this may aggravate the uncertainty of pig price at the end of the year, and the pig price may not rise as expected in the fourth quarter!
Personally, after entering the fourth quarter, the sentiment that the breeding end is quite expensive still exists. Due to the cold weather, there are more and more operations to gain weight at the breeding end, and the pressure from the pig source is increased and superimposed. The phenomenon of secondary fattening in China is prominent. Previously, 20~30% of some pig enterprises in the north entered the secondary fattening, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening was outstanding, which also aggravated the supply pressure of pigs in the market at the end of the year!
Although the demand for bacon in South China increased greatly at the end of the year, the supply of pork in the market will be further relaxed and the supply of big pigs will increase due to the centralized slaughter of pigs in the market. However, the consumer market will be limited by high pork prices and mask problems, and the peak consumption season will be less than expected, and the room for pig price increase at the end of the year will be suppressed. Therefore, farmers are reminded to choose stalls carefully and be alert to the risks brought by secondary fattening. At this stage, farmers still have to follow the trend and lock in time.
Soybean meal "skyrocketed", secondary fattening increased, pig prices rose ahead of schedule, and the increase in the fourth quarter was difficult to meet expectations! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the pictures are from the internet, and the content is for reference only!