However, with the three times the storage is coming, the domestic hog market has a new action, this round of hog prices or will enter the end of the rise, however, due to the proximity of the National Day, therefore, the price of hogs is still expected to rise, the market into the stage of the multi-dimensional pull!
According to pig price data, on September 22, the national lean hog prices, the average price of pigs out of the pen remained at 23.95 yuan/kg, pig prices oscillated strong, the increase remained at 0.05 yuan/kg, the market ushered in the performance of the 6-day streak of upward movement of the center of gravity of the domestic hog prices moved significantly upward, the northern region, the pig prices rose in large part, and the price of hogs in many parts of North China smoothly rose above 24 yuan/kg, while in the The southern market, slaughterhouse offer stabilized, the market generally rose into the "24 yuan era"!
According to industry analysis, in accordance with the domestic July 2021 to April 2022 sows to depopulate the impact of the cycle, before the end of this year, the pig slaughter is still in the stage of shrinkage, a new round of pig cycle upward opening! Recently, in the external factors of the hog market, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices are high and oscillating, while the soybean meal market continues to rise, which further exacerbates the cost of the hog market, supporting the rapid rise in hog prices! Of course, back to the market fundamentals, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, pig prices rose against the trend, the rising trend is obviously wrapped up by the second fattening, due to the market for the end of the year bullish mood of the consistency of the recognition, which exacerbated the stage of the second fattening to make up for the low standard pigs in the positivity, the market around 90 ~ 110 kg standard pigs into the fattening farms, directly exacerbated the difficulty of the abattoir hogs purchasing, and for the ordinary retail hog farms, there is a wait-and-see waiting for the price of! Sentiment, the domestic pig supply is tight!
While, the consumer market performance is dismal, by the Mid-Autumn Festival, the demand for cooling, fresh pork go poorly, slaughterhouses white pigs factory difficulty, the domestic mainstream consumer cities, the wholesale market, white pigs leftover phenomenon is more prominent, the slaughtering enterprise start rate fell back, the average daily slaughtering volume also fell back to the level of the pre-Mid-Autumn Festival!
However, the consumer market for pig price suppression performance is weak, the slaughterhouse's discourse is insufficient, the breeding end of the performance of the slaughter shrinkage, still exacerbated the rise in domestic pig prices, at present, the national average price of hogs is about to rise above 24 yuan / kg, pig fattening into the medium out of the profitability of the stage!
However, according to the Chinese storage network news, September 23, a new round of reserve pork delivery is coming, this round of reserve pork delivery scale of 14,400 tons, recently, the reserve pork intensive delivery, which also conveyed to the market, "stable price and supply" important signal, for the hog market, the breeding side of the choice also has a clear impact!
Subject to the three reserves will soon come, retail pig farms pressure bar sentiment or will be loosened, and feedback from the market, the pig market has a new action, the phenomenon of the second fattening significantly weakened! Things will be reversed, the market is generally optimistic about the end of the year pig prices, which also has uncertainty, especially the average price of standard pigs is about to rise above 12 yuan / catty, which will also exacerbate the risk of secondary fattening, so the second fattening replenishment of low standard pigs in the prudent mood to turn thick! In addition, the official repeatedly emphasized that the domestic hog production capacity to maintain a normal level, the fourth quarter of the hog as well as pork supply is guaranteed, pig prices do not have a substantial increase in the basis, which also limits the enthusiasm of the second fattening!
And in the short term, due to the domestic mask problem of the many places to distribute, the National Day consumer market or will be less than expected, in particular, the National Day consumption of the main form of tourism, food and beverage industry, by the mask problem is more prominent! And the current domestic general retail market, pork prices rose to 20 yuan / kg, which also limits the enthusiasm of the residents to purchase, pork alternative consumption or will heat up, superimposed, reserve pork and frozen pork continue to put on the market, the National Day pig price favor or will be less than expected, which will also exacerbate the enthusiasm of the retail farms to recognize the price of the fences!
So, based on multiple considerations, this round of pig price rise or will face the risk of shock to the downside, but, due to the end of the month, the slaughterhouse still have the demand for pre-holiday stocking, pig prices or difficult to go down significantly, a short period of time after the price of pigs sideways, the pre-holiday pig prices will still be shocked to the main strong, but, the market will be the performance of the shock of the high level or obvious!
Pig prices rising trend was "hostage", three times the storage attack, the pig market has new action, what happened? In this regard, how do you think about it? The above is the author's personal opinion!