Many institutions are eagerly watching the action of the central bank to release water.
On July 15, the action of the central bank came!
First of all, the central bank targeted to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized banks, which is the third time this year, with the aim of releasing liquidity for small and medium-sized enterprises and releasing funds of 654.38+000 billion.
At the same time, the central bank continued to equal188.5 billion MLF, and then released 200 billion incremental funds for small and medium-sized banks.
We are not interested in the MLF operation of the central bank.
Since June 24th, the central bank has not conducted reverse repurchase operation for 15 consecutive working days. The reverse repurchase expired in July, and * * * returned 560 billion yuan.
In such a period, it is the need for loose liquidity to facilitate the continuation of medium-term lending.
Of course, we can also see the clue from the recent wording of the central bank.
DR00 1 and DR007 hit new lows of 0.7% and 1% respectively, and then rose to the upper edge of the interest rate corridor of 2.04% and 2.5 1% respectively, fully demonstrating that the days when funds were so cheap are gone forever!
The following is a partial interpretation of this policy:
First of all, China's current economic problems cannot be solved by loose liquidity.
At present, the core of China's economic problems is not liquidity. It lies in the problem of transformation and upgrading. Only when the economy turns to high technology, high added value and high technology will the liquidity of the capital market produce substantial benefits.
Otherwise, it's equivalent to a terminally ill patient, and it's no use giving him big fish and big meat all day.
At the same time, the concept of the later development of China's financial market is very clear, that is, to cancel the exchange, the fund pool and the channel, that is, to solve the problem in operation, not in the liquidity of money.
Second, the core of China's current liquidity easing is structural easing.
At present, domestic liquidity is relatively loose, but this looseness cannot flow to real estate enterprises, and the supervision of real estate by the regulatory authorities has also shifted from the sales side to the financing side.
As of July 2004 14, CBRC * * * issued 2 137 tickets, which is the most important thing in the supervision of credit violations involving real estate.
Third, the central bank must adhere to the "precision drip irrigation" when releasing water, and pay attention not only to the adequacy of liquidity, but also to the flow direction of water.
You can't consider the problem from the source, but also solve the problem from the flow. For example, when we solve the real estate problem, we should not only solve the problem from the sales side, but also from the capital side. The same is true of monetary policy, which not only solves the problem from the supply side, but also solves the problem from the demand side.
In other words, it is the real meaning to let the liquidity flow into technological innovation enterprises and prevent them from forming a barrier lake in the banking system, so as to completely abandon the phenomenon of "financial idling, bill idling, interbank idling and credit idling".
Fourth, it is useless for banks to release liquidity funds, if they are in the form of monetary capital, and they must appear in the form of equity capital.
Let us take the real estate market as an example. The foreign debt in the real estate market due in the second half of the year is around 700 billion, which once again warns the real estate enterprises of the risk of default in debt repayment.
Only by restricting the bond financing of real estate enterprises and increasing the proportion of equity financing of real estate enterprises in the later period can "good money eliminate bad money" and make this market clear as soon as possible.