Trend of Corn Market after New Year's Day in 2022
In recent days, the mood of "grabbing grain" in Northeast China has become stronger and stronger. The price of deep processing enterprises and grain traders has increased, and farmers in Northeast China have also admitted to selling them. The local grass-roots drying warehouses and drying towers are busy.
2022 1 month 14, Jilin's COFCO Elm and Baicheng Plum Blossom, Heilongjiang COFCO Biochemical, Tieling Guotou, Inner Mongolia Tongliao Jifeng, etc., increased their prices again, with a price increase of10-201 ton. Although it has not risen much, it has once again boosted the mood of "grabbing food" in Northeast China.
Looking at the Shandong corn market on the same day, there were about 890 corn trucks, which was nearly 400 fewer than the previous day. Therefore, the depressed sentiment of enterprises began to fade, and the quotation generally only dropped by about 10 yuan. Among them, Dezhou Fuyang dropped the price of one ton in 28 yuan, which is quite obvious.
But the price is also 1.34 yuan a catty. At present, the overall average price of maize in Shandong Province remains around 1.3~ 1.4 yuan. It can be said that the mood of corn price increase is rising again. Can the market price rise again before that year?
Will prices rise after the Spring Festival in 2022?
At present, the most controversial topic in the corn market is not the price, but how much the northeast grain source has sold. Most people think that 50% is sold and 50% is left, and it is predicted that only 40% is left.
But at the same time, there is a general knowledge in the market that the inventory of deep processing enterprises, feed enterprises and grain traders is not high, especially the inventory of grain traders, even the lowest in history.
Let's assume that 50% of the corn in Northeast China has been sold. Since the new grain was listed in last year 10, it has only been more than three months, and the corn has been consumed so much, and the terminal inventory is still not high. There are still more than nine months to go before this year's new grain, so what is the probability of this corn price rising?
Inventory situation analysis
Why do deep processing enterprises, feed enterprises and grain traders have low stocks? The reason is three words-"it doesn't fit". I feel that the price of corn is high, and I dare not raise the price hard. I want to wait for policy substitution or corn price reduction in the next year.
Influence of wheat factors
There is a biggest difference between this year and last year. Wheat has entered the late stage of warehouse removal. After the price difference between wheat and corn has entered a complete anti-substitution, if wheat wants to replace it smoothly, does it need the cooperation of high-priced corn?
Corn marketization
Since 2020, the country has repeatedly mentioned that corn should be marketized. Although the temporary storage of corn ended last year, it still affected the market price. 2022 is the first year of real corn marketization.
This does not mean that the price of corn will definitely rise or fall, but that we have to think differently from before to adapt to the changes in the market and your ability to withstand market changes.
For farmers' friends, the most important thing is to store the food well, otherwise everything will be useless. In recent years, the state and local governments have given subsidies and support to farmers and cooperatives to build grain cold storage.