It took Zheng sugar's main force nearly a month to rebound by more than 400 points. In July, 13 began to rebound from the low of 4,752 points in three and a half years to 5 197 points on August 6, but it was quickly swallowed up by bears. It took only three trading days this week to fall below the 4800 mark again, and there is still one and a half months before the end of the Japanese harvest season on September 30, leaving the market time to digest the aged sugar stocks. There is not only destocking pressure in the spot market, but also warehouse receipt pressure in the futures market, especially the pressure of beet warehouse receipt from the north has become the main obstacle to Zheng Sugar's recent contract. If the warehouse receipt pressure is not lifted and the stored sugar is not released, it is difficult for Zheng sugar to perform well.

70% of the warehouse receipts of Zheng Sugar Industry are concentrated in beet sugar.

According to the warehouse receipt data of August 16, there are currently 34 179 warehouse receipts in Zhengtang, and the effective forecast warehouse receipts are 1859, totaling 36,083 warehouse receipts, including 25,524 beet warehouse receipts, 859 beet warehouse receipts, 26,383 beet warehouse receipts and 8,655 sugarcane warehouse receipts, all of which are valid.

It can be seen that 70% of Zheng's sugar warehouse receipts are in sugar beet and 80% in Xinjiang. February of the whole year and June of this year are the time for sugar beet to be listed and sold in a centralized way, and it is also the most concentrated stage for sugar beet sugar factory to pay sugar for sugar beet. In the bear market year, the price of sugar gradually fell, and futures hedging showed its good advantages. During this period, the cost of warehouse receipt hedging is mostly above 5700 yuan. Because in the stage of gradually falling prices, enterprises hedge at a high level, and the willingness to deliver is very high, and futures delivery also perfectly solves the problem of spot sales, especially in the year of increasing beet production, sales are not optimistic, resulting in the lack of quality and freight advantages in spot sales. Xinjiang beet sugar warehouse receipts are concentrated in the futures market, which is also the direct source of contract pressure of Zheng sugar in recent months. During the duration of the 1809 contract, most of the 263,800 tons of warehouse receipts have to be digested. During the period of low prices, warehouse receipts tend to decrease, but the quantity is low. There is only half a month left this month, and September is about to enter the delivery month. During this period, if the beet warehouse receipt cannot be released quickly, the contract pressure of Zheng Sugar in September is self-evident.

Sugar sales in the later period are still optimistic.

The good sugar sales data in July led to a wave of market rebound and return, and the sales expectation in August remained optimistic. It can be seen that there is no problem in the terminal sales of China sugar market. The year-on-year increase in inventory is caused by the decrease in the inventory of middlemen under the background of increased output and lower bear market prices, rather than the problem of the terminal industry. On the contrary, terminal sales are expected to be stable and slightly improved, especially in the summer sales season. The rebound in sugar prices in July led to a wave of sales and hoarding, which took time to digest and also affected the sales rhythm in the first half of August. At the same time, the price correction also limits the hoarding behavior, but after the end of August, the sales will improve to a certain extent, especially in September, before the new sugar is listed in the alternating stages of new and old cropping seasons, the market supply is likely to be tight, which is conducive to the mid-term sugar price trend.

Generally, import tariffs will be raised in the medium term and certificates will be issued in the later period. After the import tariff beyond quota is raised to 90%, the profit margin is greatly reduced. High-quality imported sugar with high quality and low price has greater advantages, such as sugar in Brazil. However, this sugar is far away, and the 750,000-ton license cannot be completed in the remaining time of this cropping season, and some of it will be carried over to the next cropping season. At the same time, in the future, the amount of additional imports in China will be tightened, and the crackdown on smuggling will be greater than before. After the formal and informal imports are effectively controlled, smuggling auctions will be held, and the domestic glycogen supply will be greatly reduced in stages. This summer, don't be too pessimistic at the stage of policy pressure, and look forward to the emergence of policy effects.

Mid-term sugar market is expected.

It is understood that COFCO hedged Zheng sugar futures, which not only solved the problem of locking in the profit of stable operation and sales of enterprises, but also solved the pressure of spot sales. Especially in the year when beet production increased greatly, the hedging awareness of beet sugar in Inner Mongolia, which had great advantages in quality and freight, was obviously lower than that of Xinjiang beet enterprises represented by COFCO, and it lost the opportunity to occupy favorable prices, making enterprises more passive in spot sales. Drawing on the previous lessons, Inner Mongolia beet sugar, which will continue to increase production by more than 300,000 tons this year, is increasingly willing to deliver. Sugar factories that are about to start squeezing are also targeting the 190 1 contract, waiting for a large number of hedging during the price rebound to protect the sales profits of enterprises and the demand for rapid withdrawal of funds, which will also directly limit the time and space for Zheng sugar to rebound in the future.

The pressure of short-term warehouse receipts has become the biggest concern in the market, but the pressure is concentrated on the contracts in recent months, and there is a slight rebound in demand and space after the short-term plunge. In the medium term, under the influence of the policy, conventional imports will be reduced or postponed, sugar will not be dumped in the second half of the year, inventory digestion in summer producing areas will be accelerated, inventory of middlemen will increase, sales expectations will be optimistic, import pressure will be postponed to the next crop season, and the market can be expected this crop season. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the phased bullish thinking after the end of August. The market outlook should focus on whether the smuggled sugar is effectively reduced as expected, the existence of a large number of smuggled sugar is certain, and the rise is also a high probability event. If smuggled sugar is not as good as expected, it will boost the disk, otherwise smuggled sugar will become the biggest obstacle to all favorable factors. In the long run, the rebound of sugar market is irreversible, and it is still in the middle of bear market. In the medium term of increasing production, the unilateral short-selling strategy will be maintained for a long time, and it can be laid out again during this rebound.