The specific content of this paper:
The content of this paper is that when the annual energy release ratio of earthquakes in Eurasia is higher than 50% and accompanied by earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above, there will be the possibility of multiple earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in Chinese mainland in the next three years, and this relationship has passed the significance test at the significant level of 10%. "The significance level is 10%" means that the probability of the above results being wrong is 10% and the probability of being correct is 90%.
According to this online article, from the research results of this paper, it is equivalent to the early warning of this Turkish earthquake, and its occurrence tells us that there is a 90% possibility that an earthquake of magnitude 7-8 will occur in China in the next three years. Although we don't know the exact time and place of the earthquake, this kind of early warning is extremely precious and scarce.
Experts think there is no need to panic:
Sun Shizhen, a researcher at China Seismological Network Center, said: In the past 100 years, the average probability of earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in mainland China was twice every three years, so the conclusion of this article has no special significance. That is to say, whether there is an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in Turkey or other countries in the world, it is very likely that there will be an earthquake of magnitude 7 or above in our country within three years.
Turkey earthquake and Wenchuan earthquake originated from the same seismic belt;
Turkey is not only a romantic country at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, but also a country in the middle of the Alps-Himalayan orogenic belt.
This orogenic belt is the front position where the African plate, the Arabian plate and the Indian Ocean plate collide with the Eurasian plate. An entire ancient ocean disappears here, leaving only the dying Mediterranean.
At the same time, it is also one of the three major volcanic earthquake zones on this planet, and its influence spans three continents: Asia, Africa and Europe. Earthquakes occur frequently in history, which has repeatedly brought heavy losses to human society.
This earthquake zone also has a great influence on China. The Wenchuan earthquake 15 years ago was also the product of the activity of this earthquake zone, and the shadow of fear it left for people has not completely subsided.
We feel the same for such a disaster; We deeply sympathize with the people who suffered in the disaster. However, we also believe that although the activities of the earth are difficult to understand, the courage of human beings to unite and help each other overcome disasters will not be blocked by mountains, roads and national boundaries.
Be sure to turn on the earthquake warning function of the mobile phone!
There is really no sense of security without earthquake warning! (Experience from an experienced person)
Android users must turn on this feature! Although iPhone users do not have their own, they can also use third-party software!
Mobile phone earthquake warning settings
Xiaomi: mobile phone housekeeper → family care → earthquake warning;
Huawei: setup → safety → emergency warning notice → earthquake warning;
Glory: setting → safety → emergency warning notice → earthquake warning;
Vivo: Weather App→ Settings → Earthquake Early Warning → Enable Earthquake Early Warning Service;
OPPO: setting → safety →SOS emergency contact → natural disaster warning → earthquake warning;
Realme: Settings → Safety →SOS Emergency Contact → Natural Disaster Alert → Earthquake Alert.
Apple users need to download third-party software.
Download earthquake warning and open the following settings:
1, Settings-Notification-Earthquake Warning-Enable Notification
2. Settings-Privacy-Location Services-Earthquake Warning-Select Always
Whenever there is a catastrophe, there will always be heavy grief. In the face of disasters, how do we avoid risks and save ourselves?
How to avoid danger when the earthquake comes?
When you encounter an earthquake indoors, you should quickly run to the open place outside the house with the protective objects on your head. In case you can't escape in time, you should hide near solid furniture, inside walls, corners and other places that are easy to form a triangular space, and cover your mouth and nose with towels or clothes to prevent dust and smoke.
Stay away from exterior walls, doors and windows and balconies? Remember not to use the elevator, let alone jump off a building.
In case of an earthquake outdoors, you should pay attention to protecting your head and quickly run to the open field and squat down. Avoid tall buildings and overpasses, and stay away from dangerous facilities such as high-voltage wires.
How to save yourself from being trapped in an earthquake?
1? Stay awake. When you hear someone outside, shout loudly or tap the pipe for help; If you don't know if there is anyone outside, you should reduce your physical exertion and make a sound intermittently.
2? Clear the overlay. If you can't escape for a while, you should try to free your hands and feet and remove the covering that is pressed on your body, especially above your abdomen.
3? Cover your nose and mouth with towels, clothes, etc. Prevent inhalation of smoke and dust, causing suffocation.
4? Prevent falling. We should try our best to support the heavy objects that may fall to ensure a safe living space, and it is best to move in the direction of light and air circulation.
5? Looking for a diet. If it is difficult to escape, try to find life-sustaining items such as water and food in the movable space and wait patiently for rescue.
6? If you smell gas, don't use matches, lighters, telephones, power switches or any electronic devices.
Recently, there have been many places where birds cover the sky. In fact, we should not panic excessively. The most important thing is to calm our minds, master safety knowledge and skills, and take risks and protect ourselves scientifically.